Some people say ethanol is the answer. Others say solar. Still others say wind, while yet others say that more sophisticated technology in the car itself and big light-emitting-diodes in the home can reduce oil consumption to the point that it doesn't matter.
Will any one of them revolutionize the world in ten years? Probably not.
The point is, there is not just one thing being worked on to kill the monster of US oil dependency, but many. The monster will be killed by a thousand cuts.
An article on Winds of Change about the 8 possible alternative energy technologies.
An article in Fortune about ethanol.
Many people are pessimistic, after the lack of progress over the last 30+ years. However, the amount of energy-related murmurs in the blogosphere is trending higher, and the number of public and private energy initiatives, including venture capital going to energy, is much higher than even a couple of years ago.
There is a more than fair chance that the cocktail of accelerating, exponential innovation, market forces, and renewed political interest in energy innovation is building a head of steam. I have commented recently on why $70 oil is good for America.
I'm convinced that the world of 2015 will have had substantial jumps in energy technology from where we are today, not the least of which will be the typical 2015-model middle-class family sedan offering 60 mpg despite having a 240 hp engine.
It is always darkest before the dawn..