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Scott

"You might be interested to know that the EU is not a country. The EU is a group of countries. Countries vs. countries is the correct comparison"


That's an old chestnut. The EU is well...the European Union. There is a good chance that the EU's currency will replace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency so perhaps its just being obtuse to pretend that the EU doesn't actually exist.


"Things like 'number of papers' are meaningless as European research papers tend to be shorter in length than US ones. Why are 4 short papers better than 1 thorough one?"


You are just splitting hairs. Do you have any statistics that prove that EU scientific papers are shorter (should that be of a lower quality?) than US ones? We have already established from a US report that the EU produces more scientific reports than the USA.


"At any rate, US funding for basic research exceeds Europe by quite a bit. "


You are trying to shift the goalposts. Your original point was


"...and this does not count US scientific research that benefits other countries "


Do you have any statistics that prove that US scientific research is larger than the rest of the world's? If you can't then are you willing to admit that the USA is actually getting a scientific research free ride off of the rest of the world?


"The EU spends so little because the US defends many EU countries (familiarize yourself with what NATO is)."


Before the war on terror, as the US likes to call it, the USA was spending about $300 billion on defense while the EU was spending about $200 billion. I fail to see on the basis of those figures that the USA was 'incubating' the EU when it came to defense.


"Which proves my point of how Europe would have been fully conquered by Hitler if not for the US. The same goes for the Soviet threat to Europe."


As I already pointed out, Hitler dragged an unwilling USA into war in Europe. When the USA had the choice, before Hitler declared war on the USA 3 days after Pearl harbor, the USA refused to enter the war in Europe.

By your logic you should be thanking the old USSR for destroying 80% of Germany's war machine on the Eastern front.

Do you acknowledge the debt the USA owes the USSR or even the debt that the USA owes the UK for fighting Hitler on its own for over a year before Hitler forced the USA into the war?


"Within just two decades, the now-Islamic EU (still a collection of many countries, mind you) will be fourth in the ranking of powers, after the US, China, and India. Individual nations like Germany and France will not be in the top 5 of World GDP rankings."


Two points

(1) The EU has 450 million people. 15 million Muslims live in the EU, or about 3.3.% of the population. About 50 million Muslims do live in Europe but 25 million of them live in Russia and the other 10 million live outside the EU.

The USA has a population of about 301 million and has a population of between 3 to 6 million Muslims. The main cause of the disagreement appears to be over how many Muslim immigrants have converted to Christianity since they arrived in the US.

So the USA has a Muslim population between 1 to 2 percent of its population. Some sources put it much higher. Some sources slightly lower.

(2) The EU at the moment has just under a third of the world's GDP in contrast to the USA's 27%, while China has about 6%. India's has less than 3%.

You expect the EU to stand still while China increases it's GDP by 500% in 20 years while India increases their's by over 1000%.

I want some of what you have been drinking.

Scott

I found some interesting data that compares the EU's and the USA's share of world GDP (nominal). It also predicts the final 2007 GDP and the 2008 GDP. The source is the IMF (Oct 2007).

Nominal GDP list (sortable; in billions of US$)

__________________________2006________2007_______2008


World___________________48,144.466 __51,511.199 __54,678.426
European Union___________14,609.836 __16,574.443__17,607.657
United States_____________13,194.70___13,794.22___14,305.70


____________________________________USA____v____EU

World share of GDP____________________ %___________%

2006_______________________________27.41________30.35

2007_______________________________26.78________32.18

2008_______________________________26.16________32.20


It is interesting data from the IMF. While the EU in 2006 had only an economy which was only 9% bigger than the USA's, by 2008, the IMF predicts that the EU's economy will be 19% bigger.

Also of interest is the projection that while the EU's share of the world's economy will actually grow, the USA's will decline.


As outlined in the IMF figures, within the next 14 months the USA is projected to fall even further behind the EU.


The EU is projected to have 6% more of the planet's total wealth than the USA in 2008 - not an insubstantial amount in absolute terms. 6% of the world's wealth represents slightly less than the whole of China's projected nominal GDP in 2008 (6.8% of the world's GDP) and almost 3 times India's projected GDP in 2008 (2.3% of the world's GDP).


The EU in 2007 is projected by the IMF to add 1964 Billion US dollars of value to the world economy, China 603.88 and the USA, in third place, with 599.2.


In 2008 the EU is expected to add 1033.164 Billion US dollars of value to the world economy, China 464.78 and again the USA, trailing in third place, with 511.48.


"Within just two decades, the now-Islamic EU (still a collection of many countries, mind you) will be fourth in the ranking of powers, after the US, China, and India."


As I said before, the biggest threat to US dominance is American hubris - false unjustified self confidence.

GK

Scott,

er...you still don't seem able to admit that the EU is not a country. It is a collection of many countries that do not move in one foreign policy, does not have one leader on the top, and does not have a full free market within these countries.

You might just as well combine the US + Canada into one entity to show bigger numbers. The US and Canada are more economically and culturally integrated than the full EU is.

While the EU in 2006 had only an economy which was only 9% bigger than the USA's, by 2008, the IMF predicts that the EU's economy will be 19% bigger.

Because the EU has added new countries into at at that time. Don't you comprehend what the EU is?

By your own logic, you should also note that Germany, France, and Italy are shrinking as percentages of the EU's GDP.

As outlined in the IMF figures, within the next 14 months the USA is projected to fall even further behind the EU.

The US is a country. The EU is not. If you want to pretend that the EU is a country in your fantasy world, then you have to also concede that France and Italy must only be compared to Texas and California.

As I said before, the biggest threat to US dominance is American hubris - false unjustified self confidence.

Dead wrong. The US is far more open to self-examination than any other country, certainly more so than Germany, France, etc.

Here you say :

in contrast to the USA's 27%, while China has about 6%.

yet here you claim :

China 464.78 and again the USA, trailing in third place, with 511.48

It appears that you don't grasp the differences between nominal and PPP GDP, otherwise you would see the glaring contradictions between these two claims.

You are unequipped to discuss this subject without these basics.

15 million Muslims live in the EU

It is more like 50 million. The 15 million number is just those who were not born in the EU (immigrants). There are another 35 million born in the EU. France alone is 10% Islamic.

You expect the EU to stand still while China increases it's GDP by 500% in 20 years while India increases their's by over 1000%.

The EU has a slower GDP growth rate than the US, and is less than 1/4th the growth rate of India or China. Thus, by 2030, the now-Islamic EU is destined to be #4, behind the US, China, and India (in that order).

Scott

GK,

"er...you still don't seem able to admit that the EU is not a country.
The US is a country. The EU is not. If you want to pretend that the EU is a country in your fantasy world, then you have to also concede that France and Italy must only be compared to Texas and California. "


If it gives you comfort to believe that the EU doesn't exist then who am I to argue with you?

When the Euro was introduced, many American commentators viewed it with derision and ridicule. No one in the USA is laughing at the Euro now. Certainly not Greenspan who thinks it has 1 in 3 chance in the foreseeable future of replacing the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. He of course understands the disastrous consequences for the USA economy if such a switch does occur.

Just because you ignore the elephant in the living room, doesn't mean it isn't there.


"
'While the EU in 2006 had only an economy which was only 9% bigger than the USA's, by 2008, the IMF predicts that the EU's economy will be 19% bigger.'

Because the EU has added new countries into at at that time. Don't you comprehend what the EU is?"


I'm surprised that you think that is the reason.

Only Malta and Cyprus are scheduled to join in 2008. These two countries have a combined GDP of only $28 billion.

In percentage terms, them joining the EU only accounts for 2.7% of the $1033 increase in the EU economy.

The EU is primarily out-pacing the USA, in relative economic strength, because its economy is growing faster than the USA and this is further compounded by the plummeting US dollar.


"Here you say :

'in contrast to the USA's 27%, while China has about 6%.'

yet here you claim :

'China 464.78 and again the USA, trailing in third place, with 511.48'

It appears that you don't grasp the differences between nominal and PPP GDP, otherwise you would see the glaring contradictions between these two claims.

You are unequipped to discuss this subject without these basics."


On the contrary, I am well aware of the difference between GDP and PPP. All of my figures were in nominal GDP from the IMF. Where is your confusion? If you want to compare relative economic strengths then nominal GDP is a better measure. If you wish to compare standards of living then PPP is a better measure.

Interestingly, the US government seems to be confused with the difference between GDP and GNP and has been over-estimating US growth for the last few years. I suggest you research Susan N. Houseman under the search term "phantom GDP". If her assertions are true, and it looks very likely, the USA has probably over estimated the growth in US industry by 40% in the last 3 years.

I do however think I can see your confusion and I will try to make it clearer for you to understand.

:- In 2008 the EU is expected to add 1033.164 Billion US dollars of value (nominal) to the world economy, with the USA pipping China for 2nd place with 511.48 with China at 464.78."


"
'15 million Muslims live in the EU'

It is more like 50 million. The 15 million number is just those who were not born in the EU (immigrants). There are another 35 million born in the EU. France alone is 10% Islamic."


I respectively suggest that you do your research a little more carefully because you are factually mistaken about the number of Muslims in the EU.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4385768.stm
http://eumc.europa.eu/eumc/material/pub/muslim/Manifestations_EN.pdf

Please look at the bottom of p29 where the EU population of Muslims was estimated at 13 Million.


"The EU has a slower GDP growth rate than the US, and is less than 1/4th the growth rate of India or China. Thus, by 2030, the now-Islamic EU is destined to be #4, behind the US, China, and India (in that order)."


You seem to be unaware that the IMF has stated that the EU is growing faster than the USA, on a real GDP growth basis, in 2007 and will continue to do so in 2008.

Hubris alone won't allow the USA to catch the EU or to fend off the economic challenge of China and India and avoid dropping from the 2nd largest economy in the world to the 3rd or 4th.

GK

Scott,

You still cannot admit that the EU is not a country. Sure, it has a currency, the Euro, but it is not a country.

Why is this fact so challenging for you? That you need to ignore such a huge fact reveals your insecurity.

I'll agree to let you consider a collection of 27 countries as 1 country, if you let me combine the US + Canada into 1 country. The US and Canada are far more economically and culturalally integrated than the aggregate EU is.

Furthermore, the GDP of the EU is exactly $20B, or 0.15% more than the US. Big whoop, 27 states are needed to equal 1, and come nowhere close to the two of the US + Canada.

As countries, Germany, France, Italy, etc. are all growing at much slower rates than the US. In fact the poorest US state has a GDP per capita comparable to that of these countries.

What you say about the Euro as a currency may become true. However, you seem uninformed of the fact that the UK, Norway, Sweden, etc. don't use the Euro as their currency. Thus, you become hypocritical when you add these countries into your total EU GDP number. The GDP of countries using the Euro is *not* higher than the US.

Furthermore, the 2008 forecast from the Economist (a British Magazine) shows the Euro Area's GDP growth in 2008 to be lower than the US. 2007 being higher was certainly not a trend. Thus, you lose on this point as well.

Also, it appears you are unfamiliar with the 2007 enlargement of the EU to include Romania and Bulgaria, adding $270B to the EU economy. That is the only reason the EU's economy achieved parity with the US.

In 2004, the massive enlargement that added 10 countries increased the EU population 19%.

So we have indisputably established that the EU economy grew to the current size by begging Eastern European countries to join.

Please look at the bottom of p29 where the EU population of Muslims was estimated at 13 Million.

Dead wrong, as usual. There are 44M Muslims in Europe. Excluding Russia, it is still about 35M.

It appears you are the one with too much hubris to even research the facts, which reveals your insecurity. That is why the original article is focussed on China, and the EU (since it is not a country) does not even warrant an article. The earlier points on how Europe periodically depends on America to save it from threats internal and external is another factor that precludes superpowerdom for France, Germany, etc.

Scott

GK,

"Furthermore, the GDP of the EU is exactly $20B, or 0.15% more than the US. Big whoop, 27 states are needed to equal 1, and come nowhere close to the two of the US + Canada."

Its good that the CIA fact book has finally bitten the bullet and admitted that the EU has a larger GDP than the USA. You will notice that the CIA figures are 2006 estimates.

Fortunately the real figures for 2006 are in (rather than the CIA's estimate) and the IMF says the EU economy was 9% larger than the USA's economy in nominal GDP in 2006.


"I'll agree to let you consider a collection of 27 countries as 1 country, if you let me combine the US + Canada into 1 country."

If you wish. The combined USA and Canadian GDPs are still smaller than the EU's GDP according to IMF figures.

"As countries, Germany, France, Italy, etc. are all growing at much slower rates than the US. In fact the poorest US state has a GDP per capita comparable to that of these countries."


I'm a little puzzled by your statement. According to the Economist figures in the link you provided:

Germany is actually growing faster in 2007 than the USA and is projected to have the same growth rate as the USA in 2007. It should be noted that the EU aggregate figures from your source, The Economist, are for the Euro area only. For the EU itself (a larger organisation), no aggregate figure is given in your source.

The IMF however asserts the EU is growing faster than the USA in 2007 and will continue to do so in 2008.

GDP, percentage change on a year ago (Source: The Economist magazine)

__________________________2007________2008

United States_______________ 2.0___________2.2
Euro Area__________________2.6___________2.1
Germany___________________2.7___________2.2


"What you say about the Euro as a currency may become true. However, you seem uninformed of the fact that the UK, Norway, Sweden, etc. don't use the Euro as their currency. Thus, you become hypocritical when you add these countries into your total EU GDP number. The GDP of countries using the Euro is *not* higher than the US."

I have always been comparing the EU with the USA, not only the Euro zone with the USA. Some EU countries use the Euro, some do not. I'm not sure why this is a source of confusion for you. Whether they use the Euro or not they are all still members of the EU and contribute to the EU's total GDP.

I may be mistaken but I feel that you are trying to move the goalposts by asserting that we were always comparing only the Euro zone area with the USA. Your logic is a little tortuously contrived when you come to the conclusion that I am a hypocrite. I have always being using total EU GDP figures. I am happy to break down the EU figures and discuss them with you if you wish.


"Furthermore, the 2008 forecast from the Economist (a British Magazine) shows the Euro Area's GDP growth in 2008 to be lower than the US. 2007 being higher was certainly not a trend. Thus, you lose on this point as well."


If you look at the figures from the economist above, your source, you will see that the Euro area is outgrowing the USA in 2007 and is projected to be 0.1% behind in growth in 2007.

According to the IMF however, the EU itself (a larger organisation than the Euro zone) is outgrowing the USA in 2007 and will continue to do so in 2008 which was my original point.

"In 2004, the massive enlargement that added 10 countries increased the EU population 19%.
So we have indisputably established that the EU economy grew to the current size by begging Eastern European countries to join."

I think you are revealing your partisan perspective here. The new countries that joined in 2004 added 8.88% to the EU's GDP and a good thing it was too from an EU perspective. I suspect that the USA would have been happier if they had not joined.

"
Please look at the bottom of p29 where the EU population of Muslims was estimated at 13 Million.

Dead wrong, as usual. There are 44M Muslims in Europe. Excluding Russia, it is still about 35M. "


You seem to be confused about the difference between in Europe and inside the EU. Your link doesn't actually provide a 'inside EU' figure whereas the link I provided does. The following link does break down the figures which I have added together to arrive at a EU Muslim population.

http://www.islamicpopulation.com/europe_general.html

List of EU member states and their Muslim populations

AUSTRIA_______________________________0.19
BELGIUM______________________________0.38
BULGARIA_____________________________0.91
CYPRUS_______________________________0.25
THE CZECH REPUBLIC____________________0.02
DENMARK______________________________0.16
ESTONIA_______________________________0.01
FINLAND______________________________0.01
FRANCE_______________________________6.12
GERMANY_____________________________3.05
GREECE_______________________________0.17
HUNGARY______________________________0.01
IRELAND_______________________________neglibible
ITALY_________________________________1.42
LATVIA________________________________0.01
LITHUANIA_____________________________neglibible
LUXEMBOURG___________________________0.01
MALTA_________________________________ neglibible
NETHERLANDS___________________________0.89
POLAND________________________________0.04
PORTUGAL_______________________________0.05
ROMANIA_______________________________0.22
SLOVAKIA_______________________________neglibible
SLOVENIA_______________________________0.03
SPAIN___________________________________0.55
SWEDEN_________________________________0.28
UNITED KINGDOM_________________________1.51

Total EU Muslim Population 15.5 Million

"It appears you are the one with too much hubris to even research the facts, which reveals your insecurity."


I'm not meaning to be cheeky but my research does seem to be more thorough than your own.

"That is why the original article is focused on China, and the EU (since it is not a country) does not even warrant an article."

Indeed. If you pretend that the EU doesn't exist, I'm sure it will just go away. Or perhaps not.

Scott

Here is an interesting article, [originally published in Washington Post, Outlook section Sunday, October 7, 2007; Page B03]

5 Myths About "Sick Old Europe"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-hill/5-myths-about-sick-old-e_b_68138.html

Scott

"
'Please look at the bottom of p29 where the EU population of Muslims was estimated at 13 Million.'

Dead wrong, as usual. There are 44M Muslims in Europe. Excluding Russia, it is still about 35M. "


I originally said there was about 15 million Muslims in the EU.

http://www.islamicpopulation.com/europe_general.html

According to this link there are about 15.5 Million inside the EU, about 51 Million in Europe as a whole of whom 27 Million live in Russia. It would appear Europe, excluding Russia, has about 24 million Muslims.

Your source

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_by_country

didn't break down the figures and forced you to guestimate. There is no need to do so. More detailed figures do exist and I have used them.


I also just noticed that the CIA figures you cited are 2006 estimates in PPP, not nominal GDP. I thought it best to point this out as it is best not to compare apples with oranges.

Thanks for the links. They are interesting.

anon

Sorry, couldn't let this pass. First Computational device - Babbage (British), inventor (sic) of the internet Berners-Lee (British). Top Blogs? I find most blogs written by Americans to be crude, insular, ill-informed and arrogant.

This sort of attitude is why Americans of a certain type, the ones who believe they have the 'Only' truth are loathed in Western Europe and everywhere I have ever lived. (That's quite a few countries by now.)

The first REAL computer was created by bill gates Microsoft. THe internet was a DARPA project constructed by the US defense department so its military could relay messages faster incase of a battle with the soviet union. So the US invented the internet (not the brits you tit). It was american made, and paid for by the US taxpayer. not the british.

GK

Scott,

If you wish. The combined USA and Canadian GDPs are still smaller than the EU's GDP according to IMF figures.

No, it isn't. Now you are just making things up. And why do you wish to hide from the CIA and World Bank figures now? Stick with PPP, BTW.

I have always been comparing the EU with the USA

At least you admit that you are trying to compare a loose collection of 27 countries with 1 country.

The new countries that joined in 2004 added 8.88% to the EU's GDP and a good thing it was too from an EU perspective.

So you have already backtracked from your claim that 'only Malta and Cyprus have joined' recently. You have thus conceded that the 2007 additions, with 8.88% added to GDP, are the only thing getting the EU's GDP to where it is.

Indeed. If you pretend that the EU doesn't exist, I'm sure it will just go away. Or perhaps not.

The EU is not a country. Any more than the US + Canada is a single country.

Indeed, if you pretend that Islamic domination the EU does not exist, the EU will cease to exist.

It is you who seem to be in denial about what an apples-to-apples comparison is.

By the way, look at these official statistics on scientific research. The US beats your full collection of 27 countries in research expenditures as well as number of researchers.

I also just noticed that the CIA figures you cited are 2006 estimates in PPP, not nominal GDP.

Why? Cost of living adjustments matter. China and India become far smaller in a nominal comparision.

I thought it best to point this out as it is best not to compare apples with oranges.

That is the joke of the whole thread, coming from someone who insists on comparing a loose collection of 27 countries with just 1 country, and even then falling short on most measures.


anon

GK

I think if anything, that goes to show how envious/jealous many are of america today. The fact that an entire continent cannot get the better, or even come close to bettering, a single nation.

The CIA also predicts that the EU will collapse/disintegrate in 15 years time due to its current welfare state, which is unsustainable.

http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=591&id=56762005

It also talks about the pending crisis with Europes dwindling population. In order for Europe to sustain economic growth figures, europe will undoubtedly have to turn to legal immigration in order to keep its workforce large enough, to pay for the nanny state that many euros enjoy. Who will be the immigrants? Muslims.
"As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europe’s Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions."

Scott

GK,

You previously stated

"...and this does not count US scientific research that benefits other countries"

and I countered

"Do you have any statistics that prove that US scientific research is larger than the rest of the world's? If you can't then are you willing to admit that the USA is actually getting a scientific research free ride off of the rest of the world?"


Now you have posted a link proving that the USA does 34% of the world's R&D and the rest of the world does 66%.

You originally appeared to be asserting that the rest of the world owed the USA for US research. I take it that you are now admitting that the USA is a net R&D gainer from the rest of the world?


"
Scott wrote: 'If you wish. The combined USA and Canadian GDPs are still smaller than the EU's GDP according to IMF figures'

GK wrote: No, it isn't. Now you are just making things up. And why do you wish to hide from the CIA and World Bank figures now? Stick with PPP, BTW.
"


IMF figures GDP (nominal in Billions of Dollars) 2006

EU_____________________14,609.83
US____________13,194.70
Canada_________1,275.8___14,469.98


I take it that math isn't your strong point.


You only posted 1 set of CIA figures and in your haste to prove the USA's 'superiority' you either did not to realise that they were PPP and not nominal figures or you were being deliberately missleading.


"
Scott wrote: 'The new countries that joined in 2004 added 8.88% to the EU's GDP and a good thing it was too from an EU perspective.'

GK wrote: So you have already backtracked from your claim that 'only Malta and Cyprus have joined' recently. You have thus conceded that the 2007 additions, with 8.88% added to GDP, are the only thing getting the EU's GDP to where it is."


We have already ascertained that math isn't your strong point. Reading comprehension appears to be a weak area for you also. Quote what I have written as much as you like but do quote me. Don't just make it up.


"
Scott wrote: 'I also just noticed that the CIA figures you cited are 2006 estimates in PPP, not nominal GDP.'

GK wrote: 'Why? Cost of living adjustments matter. China and India become far smaller in a nominal comparision.'
"


Economists generally agree that nominal GDP figures are better for comparing relative international strengths and PPP is better for comparing internal standards of living,

I can understand your retreat from using nominal figures. The US dollar is going down faster than the Titanic.


"GK wrote: Indeed, if you pretend that Islamic domination the EU does not exist, the EU will cease to exist."


Figures? You have previously posted a number of figures which I have proved to be wrong. Considering that your figures were wrong in respect of the number of Muslims in the EU then how can we trust your conclusions derived from them?


I found some other interesting figures

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_sector_composition

We have already ascertained that the EU has a larger GDP than the USA. It would be interesting to see how much of those GDPs are derived from Agriculture and Industry rather than service industries.

_____________________Agri___________Industry

EU___________________2.1%__________27.3%
USA__________________0.9%__________20.4%


It looks like old Europe wins again.


"GK wrote: And why do you wish to hide from the CIA and World Bank figures now?"


These figures originally came from the CIA fact book. All the sources (IMF, World Bank and the CIA) essentially say the same thing. The EU has a bigger economy than the USA and has a larger agriculture and manufacturing sector.

Pretend other wise if you wish but it is just hubris. Nothing more.

Scott

"The CIA also predicts that the EU will collapse/disintegrate in 15 years time due to its current welfare state, which is unsustainable.
http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=591&id=56762005"


Is this the same CIA that predicted that weapons of mass destruction would be found in Iraq?

anon

If I recall correctly, it wasnt just US intel that was saying Iraq had WMDs.;)

And the report (if you took the time to read it) brings up very valid points.

As for US vs EU. The EU does not work as a single entity (like the US). Making funding programs for the EU less streamlined and inefficient. The US R&D spending alone accounts for some 40% of the worlds R&D spending.

Let us not forget that the EU has a population of nearly twice that of americas. And the GDPs are nearly the same, with the US GDP growth rate faster than the EUs.

The EU was made to oppose NAFTA. NAFTA, which stands for "North america Free Trade Agreement" has a larger GDP than all of the EU.

That is a more proper comparison when comparing the two.

EU = 27 individual nations.

NAFTA = 3 individual nations.

GDP for EU = $14,609.83

GDP for NAFTA = 15,604.98

The EU is basically what NAFTA is, an economic agreement between nations. The only difference is, a common currency is not shared between the three nations of NAFTA.


GK

Scott,

Ad hominem name-calling, eh? That is a classic sign of someone who knows that they are losing, and is worried about running out of points. In fact, it is the precise signal I wait for in order to execute the coup de grace.

Now, to finish you off once and for all.

1) You seem to be unable to accept that the EU is a collection of 27 countries, and that comparing that to 1 country is apples to oranges. If the EU had one top leader (like the US, India, Japan, and China do), then I could agree that it is a comparable entity. But it does not.

Your clinging to this apples to oranges issue wrecks your credibility as a serious, fact-based thinker.

2) Nonetheless, if I add the US + Canada (2 countries), and compare that to the EU (27 countries), we see that :

US GDP : $13.06T
Canada GDP : $1.18T
Total US + Canada : $14.24T

EU 27 : $13.08T

Thus, US + Canada dwarfs the EU.

Also, I clearly told you to use PPP GDP. Your retreat to nominal GDP is a weak admission of your defeat on this point, and avoidance of the fact that China and India already dwarf France, Germany, Britain, etc. in PPP GDP.

Furthermore, the IMF and World Bank don't calculate the EU's nominal GDP, because they, unlike you, know that the EU is not a country.

3) We have established that the US does more scientific research than the EU, in both dollars and the number of scientists. That 1 country is more than a collection of 27 is a remarkable testament to US power. You can see that even China is rapidly closing in on the EU. I never said the US does more than half of the world's R&D, but I did say it does far more than any other country (and more than the 27 EU countries combined).

4) Regarding future growth, check out these GDP charts from BusinessWeek, showing the EU diminishing over time, relative to the US, China, and India. Even though this is in nominal GDP, not PPP, the EU's future is indisputably grim. That is why I wrote the original article about China, rather than bother with France, Germany, Britain, etc.

5) A study by the EU has found that the EU economy is 22 years behind the US. This is a devastating source that virtually concludes this debate.

6) In terms of status as a reserve currency, the dollar dwarfs the Euro by a 2.5-to-1 margin.

7) This is further driven home by the fact that the Human Development Index of the US is higher not only than the aggregate EU, but of ALL EU countries with populations greater than 10 million.

8) There is far more migration from the EU countries to the US, than the other way around. This is the true measure of appeal.

9) Here it says that the EU-25 has 23 million Muslims, which is lower than my 35 million number for all of non-Russia Europe, but still is far higher than your wrong 15 million figure.

Points 4) and 5) pretty much kill the wishful hubris you have about EU domination, but as you are someone who cannot get past point 1) - that comparing a collection of 27 countries to 1 country is apples to oranges, I doubt you will assess the facts unemotionally.

But thanks for getting me to do additional research to dig up the links in items 3) and 6), which will enable me to strengthen the original article.

Scott

GK aka anon,

"GK wrote: Ad hominem name-calling, eh? That is a classic sign of someone who knows that they are losing, and is worried about running out of points."


I have tried to be civil and polite all the way through this exchange. You have called me a hypocrite. I admit however that I do have reservations about your math and reading comprehension skills. I have come to that conclusion quite objectively. You miss calculated the combined US and Canada GDP figures and attributed statements to me that I have never made. You have also consistently been unable to show an understanding of the difference between Europe and the EU when we were discussing the number of Muslims in Europe.


"GK wrote: In fact, it is the precise signal I wait for in order to execute the coup de grace."


I do admire your optimism. Or is it just good old fashioned American Hubris again?


"GK wrote: I'll agree to let you consider a collection of 27 countries as 1 country, if you let me combine the US + Canada into 1 country."


Then later after I pointed out that the EU still has a larger nominal GDP than the USA and Canada combined you come back with


"GK wrote: You seem to be unable to accept that the EU is a collection of 27 countries, and that comparing that to 1 country is apples to oranges. If the EU had one top leader (like the US, India, Japan, and China do), then I could agree that it is a comparable entity. But it does not.
Your clinging to this apples to oranges issue wrecks your credibility as a serious, fact-based thinker."


I would say that you are desperately back peddling.


"GK wrote (now using PPP):
US GDP : $13.06T
Canada GDP : $1.18T
Total US + Canada : $14.24T
EU 27 : $13.08T
Thus, US + Canada dwarfs the EU.
Also, I clearly told you to use PPP GDP. Your retreat to nominal GDP is a weak admission of your defeat on this point, and avoidance of the fact that China and India already dwarf France, Germany, Britain, etc. in PPP GDP. "


I see that you have tried to change horses mid stream by jumping from nominal GDP to PPP. I can understand you trying to do so, after all the US dollar is plummeting like a stone.

What is telling is that your original article "Why the US Will Still be the Only Superpower in 2030" you only used nominal GDP to compare the USA and China.

It is strange that you accuse me of retreating to nominal GDP when in fact, if anyone else has followed this thread, we have been using nominal figures from the beginning. As you did in your original article.

It is however strange for a man who has a web site about economics to desperately cling to trying to use PPP when any economist will tell you that PPP is better for comparing internal standards of living and that nominal GDP is a better measure of relative international strengths. You even tacitly acknowledged you understand this in your own original article by only using nominal GDP to compare China and the USA.

This isn't the first time you have tried to change the goal posts when you are losing.


"GK wrote: the IMF and World Bank don't calculate the EU's nominal GDP, because they, unlike you, know that the EU is not a country."


Even though the IMF does actually calculate nominal GDP for the EU?

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/01/data/weorept.aspx?pr.x=78&pr.y=11&sy=2004&ey=2008&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=001%2C998&s=NGDPD&grp=1&a=1

and the world bank calculates it for the Euro zone. Why wouldn't they?

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GDP.pdf

"You can see that even China is rapidly closing in on the EU. I never said the US does more than half of the world's R&D, but I did say it does far more than any other country (and more than the 27 EU countries combined). "


Yes, China is a challenge. If the EU isn't careful it could be in the embarrassing situation the USA is in and fall behind China in absolute GDP growth.

The EU in 2007 is projected by the IMF to add 1964 Billion US dollars (nominal) of value to the world economy, China 603.88 and the USA, in third place, with 599.2.


"GK wrote: Regarding future growth, check out these GDP charts from BusinessWeek, showing the EU diminishing over time, relative to the US, China, and India. Even though this is in nominal GDP, not PPP, the EU's future is indisputably grim."


This would be the American Businessweek magazine's 2005 prediction that purports to be able to predict the world economy in 2050 but was unable to predict 2 years into the future and see the recent semi-catastrophic plummeting of the US dollar? Mmmm....


More American Hubris.


"GK wrote: A study by the EU has found that the EU economy is 22 years behind the US. This is a devastating source that virtually concludes this debate."


Care to redo the figures behind that report since the plummet of the dollar and get back to me?


"GK wrote: In terms of status as a reserve currency, the dollar dwarfs the Euro by a 2.5-to-1 margin"


Your chart is 2 years old....

A lot has happened since 2005. Countries are deserting the dollar as a reserve currency like rats fleeing a sinking ship.


"GK wrote: There is far more migration from the EU countries to the US, than the other way around. This is the true measure of appeal."


That is interesting. Do you have any figures to back that up. According to the 2000 US census 85% of all immigrants into the USA come from third world countries like India.


US Census 2000 - Immigration

top ten countries of birth of the foreign born population

_________________________thousands

Mexico_____________________7841
China______________________1391
Phillipnes___________________1222
India_______________________1007
Cuba________________________952
Vietnam_____________________863
El Salvador___________________765
Pakistan______________________724
Korea________________________701
Dominican Republic____________692
Canada_______________________678


"GK wrote: Here it says that the EU-25 has 23 million Muslims, which is lower than my 35 million number for all of non-Russia Europe, but still is far higher than your wrong 15 million figure."


This is good example of why I wonder about your reading comprehension skills. The report actually says:

"Europe’s Muslim population (without Russia) has nearly tripled over the last 30 years, to about 23 million, and experts predict it will double again by 2020"

You just can't seem to get your head around the difference between Europe and the EU can you?

That's the third time you have made that mistake. Are you doing it deliberately?

Scott

"GK wrote: But thanks for getting me to do additional research to dig up the links in items 3) and 6), which will enable me to strengthen the original article."


What about point 2?


"GK wrote (now using PPP):

2) I clearly told you to use PPP GDP. Your retreat to nominal GDP is a weak admission of your defeat on this point"


However in his original article he wrote


"GK wrote: China, with an economy of $2.2 trillion in nominal (not PPP) terms, would have to grow at 12% a year for the next 25 years straight to achieve the same size"


Will you point out that by using PPP then China will over take the USA in the next few years (literally).


Source: the World Bank, in (millions of USD)

________________________2006 GDP (PPP)_______________2006 GDP (nominal)

USA____________________13,201,809__________________________13,210,819

China___________________ 10,048,046__________________________2,668,071


Fair is fair. If you think it is only appropriate to use PPP to compare the USA with the EU then surely it is fair to only use it to compare China to the USA?


Can we look forward to you rewriting your original article using only PPP when comparing China to the USA?


If not, why not?

Scott

To get back to who invented the computer. This link is quite good

It makes the point that it all depends on how you define a computer and who invented it first by each definition. It is well worth a look.

http://www.turing.org.uk/turing/scrapbook/computer.html

GK

Scott,

Nope, 'anon' and I are not the same person. I don't even agree with him that the EU will collapse.

A tendency to think multiple people who are beating you in an argument are just 1 person is another sign of tacitly acknowledging your defeat, BTW.

You miss calculated the combined US and Canada GDP figures and attributed statements to me that I have never made.

Such as?

That is interesting. Do you have any figures to back that up. According to the 2000 US census 85% of all immigrants into the USA come from third world countries like India.

Yes, and these highly-skilled engineers and doctors from India and China choose to come to the US over the EU because the EU is unattractive.

In a two-way analysis between the US and EU countries, there is far more migration from the EU to the US, than the other way. You know that this is true - try to find some statistic of US citizens immigrating to the EU.

Your chart is 2 years old....

I notice that you didn't provide a more current one, probably because it proves that little has changed and I am still right. The dollar beats the Euro by more than 2-to-1.

This would be the American Businessweek magazine's

Nope. It is an EU study quoted by BusinessWeek. Furthermore, how do you know that BW did not talk about the dollar's decline? In fact they have many times - your blind irrational bias against American economists knocks your credibility even further. Lastly, the decline is not 'catastrophic', when it hurts the EU far more, as the EU cannot export to the US much anymore. Here is another article about how the EU is revising down its own growth rates.

Your bluffing is getting quite desperate now.

Still, you have avoided mention of the EU study that says the EU's economy is 22 years behind the US. I said that this is a point that virtually kills your whole argument, and I was right.

On point 9), I repeat : The EU-25 has 23 million Muslims in it. Period. The EU-25 are the 25 countries of the EU in 2006 (I am surprised you, of all people, don't know this). If you add Romania and Bulgaria, the number of Muslims is even higher. Why are you hiding from this?

At any rate, you have totally avoided my points 4) and 5), which are the ones that most thoroughly puncture your hubris-laden argument, and is thus an admission of defeat from you.

You can't seem to concede point 1) either, which ruins your credibility as an objective thinker.

You are finished off fully - utterly and comprehensively defeated in this debate.

Scott

"GK wrote: On point 9), I repeat : The EU-25 has 23 million Muslims in it. Period. The EU-25 are the 25 countries of the EU in 2006 (I am surprised you, of all people, don't know this). If you add Romania and Bulgaria, the number of Muslims is even higher. Why are you hiding from this?


Sorry, I'm a little busy at the moment but if you look at the figures up the page that I supplied (complete with a link) you will see that Romania and Bulgaria are included. I am not hiding from this. Every one can make a mistake and you have.

Please read things more carefully.


ROMANIA_______________________________0.22 Million Muslims
BULGARIA_______________________________0.91 Million Muslims

http://www.islamicpopulation.com/europe_general.html

List of EU member states (all 27 of them) and their Muslim populations

AUSTRIA_______________________________0.19
BELGIUM______________________________0.38
BULGARIA_____________________________0.91
CYPRUS_______________________________0.25
THE CZECH REPUBLIC____________________0.02
DENMARK______________________________0.16
ESTONIA_______________________________0.01
FINLAND______________________________0.01
FRANCE_______________________________6.12
GERMANY_____________________________3.05
GREECE_______________________________0.17
HUNGARY______________________________0.01
IRELAND_______________________________neglibible
ITALY_________________________________1.42
LATVIA________________________________0.01
LITHUANIA_____________________________neglibible
LUXEMBOURG___________________________0.01
MALTA_________________________________ neglibible
NETHERLANDS___________________________0.89
POLAND________________________________0.04
PORTUGAL_______________________________0.05
ROMANIA_______________________________0.22
SLOVAKIA_______________________________neglibible
SLOVENIA_______________________________0.03
SPAIN___________________________________0.55
SWEDEN_________________________________0.28
UNITED KINGDOM_________________________1.51

Total EU Muslim Population 15.5 Million

Scott

"GK wrote: Nope, 'anon' and I are not the same person. I don't even agree with him that the EU will collapse.

A tendency to think multiple people who are beating you in an argument are just 1 person is another sign of tacitly acknowledging your defeat, BTW."


Rather, wouldn't it be a sign of paranoia if it wasn't true?


Besides, I suspect that a swinging gate would be interpreted by yourself as a sign of me tacitly acknowledging defeat in your judgment.

Scott

"GK wrote: You miss calculated the combined US and Canada GDP figures and attributed statements to me that I have never made. "


When? When I pointed earlier in our debate that you had miss quoted me. You did attribute a statement to me that I never made and now you have done it twice. If you are trying to win this debate by boring me into submission then you are almost succeeding.


"GK wrote: So you have already backtracked from your claim that 'only Malta and Cyprus have joined' recently."


What I actually said was


"Only Malta and Cyprus are scheduled to join in 2008. These two countries have a combined GDP of only $28 billion."


Please read things more carefully.

Scott

"GK wrote: Yes, and these highly-skilled engineers and doctors from India and China choose to come to the US over the EU because the EU is unattractive.
In a two-way analysis between the US and EU countries, there is far more migration from the EU to the US, than the other way. You know that this is true - try to find some statistic of US citizens immigrating to the EU."


Let's be fair here.

You are making these points based on anecdotal evidence only. If not then why didn't you provide links?

Can you provide some data to prove your points?

"GK wrote: I notice that you didn't provide a more current one, probably because it proves that little has changed and I am still right. The dollar beats the Euro by more than 2-to-1."


What has happened to the US dollar in the last 2 years? Trust me, it hasn't been good for the US and this was before the plummet of the dollar.

You do understand that the US is a reserve currency and what will happen to the US economy if it loses that status?

Report from Oct 2007:

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/fleeing_the_USD_US_Dollar_102920072


- VIETNAM is planning to cut its purchases of US Treasuries and other Dollar bonds

- Kuwait has already abandoned its Dollar peg

- Qatar announced that it had cut the Dollar holdings. Qatar will not have a significant impact on the Dollar, but it is being watched by the other members of the Opec oil cartel. All are concerned by the fact that the US Dollar is cheapening by the day.

- There have been reports that China is already pulling out of US bonds to fund its new sovereign wealth fund.

- In August, Japan and China led a record withdrawal of foreign funds from the United States in August. Data from the US Treasury showed outflows of $163 billion from all forms of US investments.

- Asian investors dumped $52 billion worth of US Treasury bonds alone; Japan ($23 billion); China ($14.2 billion); Taiwan ($5 billion).

- Central banks in Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam have all begun to cut purchases of US bonds, or signaled their intention to do so.


http://www.currencytrading.net/2007/7-countries-considering-abandoning-the-us-dollar-and-what-it-means/

7 Countries Considering Abandoning the US Dollar

1.Saudi Arabia: The Telegraph reports that for the first time, Saudi Arabia has refused to cut interest rates along with the US Federal Reserve. This is seen as a signal that a break from the dollar currency peg is imminent.

2.South Korea: In 2005, Korea announced its intention to shift its investments to currencies of countries other than the US. There are whispers that the Bank of Korea is planning on selling $1 billion US bonds in the near future, after a $100 million sale this past August.

3.China: After already dropping the dollar peg in 2005, China has more trouble up its sleeve. Currently, China is threatening a “nuclear option” of huge dollar liquidation in response to possible trade sanctions intended to force a yuan revaluation.

4.Venezuela: Venezuela holds little loyalty to the dollar. In September, Chavez instructed Venezuela’s state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA to change its dollar investments to euros and other currencies in order to mitigate risk.

5.Sudan: Sudan is, once again, planning to convert its dollar holdings to the euro and other currencies.

6.Iran: Iran is perhaps the most likely candidate for an imminent abandonment of the dollar. Recently, Iran requested that its shipments to Japan be traded for yen instead of dollars.

7.Russia: In 2005, Russia put an end to its dollar peg, opting instead to move towards a euro alignment. They’ve discussed pricing oil in euros, a move that could provide a large shift away from the dollar and towards the euro, as Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter.


Remember that your graph was 2 years old and the above was all happening before the recent semi-catastrophic slide of the dollar.

The future isn't looking bright for the dollar.

Here is a nice Indian link for you.

http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/18531.asp

Oct 17th 2007

"The Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank may be forced to buy US Dollar as world investors’ start selling record levels of US assets"


It looks as if Japan, and the EU may need to bail the USA out!


Perhaps they will help if the USA promises to stop abusing its position as a reserve currency by consuming more than it produces.

"GK wrote: Lastly, the decline is not 'catastrophic', when it hurts the EU far more, as the EU cannot export to the US much anymore."

Why are growth figures being revised down?

http://businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/nov2007/gb20071112_158093.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_global+business

"The commission pointed to possible disruptions in financial markets and the possibility of a sharper or more protracted economic slowdown in the US when identifying the main risks to growth."

Also of interest

"The inflationary pressures of these exceptionally high oil prices are partially offset by the rising strength of the Euro on exchange rate markets, with Europe paying for its oil in cheap dollars."

So while the US has to buy oil with a weakened dollar, the EU can buy cheap dollars with expensive pounds and Euros. It looks like the USA is getting the short end of the stick with this one. US inflation anyone?

Not exactly what the US needs at the moment.

Scott

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/issues/bilateral/countries/usa/index_en.htm
http://www.eurunion.org/profile/facts.htm

EU exports in goods and services only make up about 3.5% of the EU's economy. Hardly earth shattering stuff.

The EU economy clearly doesn't revolve around the US.

The Futurist

" The Futurist wrote: Still, you have avoided mention of the EU study that says the EU's economy is 22 years behind the US. I said that this is a point that virtually kills your whole argument, and I was right."


No I didn't. I asked you to redo the GDP figures the report was based on before the plummet of the US dollar and get back to me.

Fairs fair after all.

By the way, would that be the same EU using average figures for the whole EU, including the poor countries from Eastern Europe that were under Communism for half a century?

Scott

"The Futurist wrote: At any rate, you have totally avoided my points 4) and 5), which are the ones that most thoroughly puncture your hubris-laden argument, and is thus an admission of defeat from you. "


I did nothing of the sort. Point 5 was dealt with and I have repeated it above because you obviously didn't see it the first time and point 4 was answered with the observation that Business Week magainze had missed the recent catastrophic decline in the dollar (only 2 years after the report) but had confidently predicted the future 45 years ahead.

The article doesn't talk about a weakening of the US dollar.

The source in the BusinessWeek article isn't an EU report.

BusinessWeek itself says that the source of the graphs is Keys Tone India which is a private Indian company that, in its own words, is a professional services organization that facilitates cross border trade and investment between the United States and India.

A little less credible surely than an EU report quoted by BusinessWeek as you claimed.

The keys Tone report can be found here (not linked from BW)

http://www.keystone-india.com/pdfs/The%20India%20Century.pdf

If the EU report exists, please give me the link. It doesn't though.


Sadly the Indian Keystone report itself gives no link to any EU reports.

It does however give one footnote for Europe which says the European population peaked in 2000 (no source). Don't Indians provide sources much?

Interestingly the EU population

"Over the next two decades the total population of the EU25 is expected to increase by more than 13 million inhabitants, from 456.8 million on 1 January 2004 to 470.1 million on 1 January 2025. "


Source:

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10001271.shtml
This information on population projections1 in the EU25, Bulgaria and Romania, issued by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities

Scott

By the way, if I am only allowed to use PPP to compare the EU with the USA, when are you going to rewrite your main article using only PPP instead of only using Nominal GDP to compare the USA and China?

Fairs fair.

You can't have it both ways. Not if you wish to appear credible.

Scott

Here is some data that may interest you (sourced of course)

GDP per Capita
______________________% change

1913 to 1950

USA_____________________1.6
Europe__________________0.8

Source: Robert J. Gordon of Northwestern University

1950-1973

USA_____________________2.9
Europe__________________4


1973-1994

USA_____________________1.4
Europe__________________1.7

Source: Feinstein 1997, the European Economy between the Wars, Oxford University Press

1995-2006
USA_____________________2.175
EU 25___________________2.1375
EU 15___________________1.9975

Source: ERS International Macroeconomic Data Set


So much for sick old Europe!

What exactly is it that the US is doing so right and the EU is doing so wrong?

Nothing according to those figures.

Scott

If we could forget the whole, my country is bigger than your country argument for a moment, here is an article you will find very interesting about China from the FT

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dee3a0d2-9218-11dc-8981-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

The Futurist

Scott,

Wow - 11 messages to respond to mine, and still not conceding the facts. As Albert Einstein once said - "If you cannot explain something in succinct, simple terms, you don't understand it well enough".

I might add that Albert Einstein was but one of many Europeans who fled to a more favorable, civilized environment in America.

At any rate, this debate was won by me two messages ago. You are just flailing around in futility now. Let me summarize my points again :

1) You seem to be unable to accept that the EU is a collection of 27 countries, and that comparing that to 1 country is apples to oranges. There is no one supreme leader of the EU, like there is of the US, Japan, India, Canada, etc.

2) We have established that the US does more scientific research than the EU, in both dollars and the number of scientists. That 1 country is more than a collection of 27 is a remarkable testament to US power.

3) A study by the EU has found that the EU economy is 22 years behind the US. This is a devastating source that concluded this debate days ago.

Again, this is an EU study.

4) In terms of status as a reserve currency, the dollar dwarfs the Euro by a 2.5-to-1 margin. You don't have a more current chart that supposedly would show the dramatic shift you claim, so you have lost this point.

5) The Human Development Index of the US is higher not only than the aggregate EU, but of ALL EU countries with populations greater than 10 million.

6) There is far more migration from the EU countries to the US, than the other way around. This is the true measure of appeal. You know this is true, and cannot produce a source to the contrary.

7) Here it says that the EU-25 has 23 million Muslims, which you simply cannot refute. You have lost on this point as well.

8) Also, your attempt to hide behind the nominal vs. PPP comparison is silly. Surely you know that if the Euro rises 21% against the dollar, that does not mean that the standard of living in Europe suddenly rose 21%. If anything, Europe is in trouble due to an inability to export. Airbus, etc. are in deep trouble due to an over-priced Euro. Read this Times of London article. Again, I can easily rely on even non-US sources to defeat you.

If a weak currency were universally bad, why would China be forcibly keeping their Yuan lower than the market rate? For exports.

9) Let me add this brilliant article by Mark Steyn (a British-born person) how exposes how fragile Democracy is in Europe relative to America.

I have repeatedly summarized points that crush your poorly-supported arguments, but as you cannot even get past point 1), I can see how points 3) and 4) are ones you have a mental block over.

You have exhibited the 3 classic traits of someone who's subconscious already knows he has been comprehensively thrashed in an argument. They are :

a) Ad hominem personal attacks.
b) Believing that multiple people are 1 person
c) Writing multiple (in this case, 11) messages of tenuous coherence, while still not addressing the points of a much shorter article.

Scott

Sorry, no Ad hominem personal attacks from me. I just pointed out that your reading comprehension was questionable. It still is. The 23 million Muslims you cited is for Europe not the EU. That's the 4th time you have made that 'mistake'. Is it a mistake or is it that you just can't admit when you are wrong?

You on the other hand have called me a hypocrite. In fact you perhaps fall within the ambit of that term.

"hypocrite: a person who acts in contradiction to his or her stated beliefs or feelings"

To quote yourself


"Note that the numbers you quoted are Purchase Power Parity (PPP), while I cite Nominal GDP. Both have their uses. Among developed economies, the numbers are almost identical (EU, Japan, Australia, etc.), but for developing economies, they can be far apart. But when comparing the size of an economy relative to another, nominal matters, as that is the metrics by which they interact with each other."

But you maintain that only PPP is suitable to compare the developed EU and the developed USA. Why? The only reason I can think of for your 180% U-turn is that it is because the EU has a bigger nominal GDP than the USA and you don't like it.

By the way, when are you going to rewrite your article comparing the USA with China using PPP?

So what are the scores on the doors?

References previously given or will be supplied on request.


(1) The EU has a bigger economy than the USA when comparing relative international strengths. While the EU in 2006 had only an economy which was only 9% bigger than the USA's, by 2008, the IMF predicts that the EU's economy will be 19% bigger.


(2) The EU at the moment has just under a third of the world's GDP in contrast to the USA's 27%, while China has about 6%. India's has less than 3%.


(3) The EU in 2007 is projected by the IMF to add 1964 Billion US dollars of value to the world economy, China 603.88 and the USA, in third place, with 599.2.


(4) The EU is projected to have 6% more of the planet's total wealth than the USA in 2008.


(5) Between 2000 and 2005, foreign direct investment in the E.U. 15 was almost half the global total, and investment returns in Europe outperformed those in the United States.


(6) The EU has larger manufacturing and agriculture sectors than the USA.

% of GDP
_____________________Agri_________Industry

EU___________________2.1%__________27.3%

USA__________________0.9%__________20.4%


(7) In August 2007 USA jobs in goods-producing industries declined by 64,000.


(8) The EU produces more research papers than the USA.


(9) The USA has a trade deficit of $860 billion (2006 est.) with the rest of the world.

In contrast the 27-member European Union (EU) reported a trade deficit of of only 13.8 billion Euros with the rest of the world. Meanwhile, the EU's had a trade surplus with the United States of 38.4 billion euros even after the recent semi-catastrophic plummet in the value of the dollar


(10) The USA has been abusing its position as the world reserve currency and has borrowed the equivalent of 79% of its GDP from the rest of the world - external debt of $10 trillion. That comes to $20,000 for each American, and at 5 percent interest, $2000 for each working American.

The USA is now a debtor nation.

(11) Foreigners own $2.5 trillion more of American assets than Americans own of foreign assets.

(12) According to the World Economic Forum's measure of national competitiveness, European countries took the top four spots, seven of the top 10 spots and 12 of the top 20 spots in 2006-07. The United States ranked sixth. India ranked 43rd and mainland China 54th.


(13) The USA has only achieved very slightly higher GDP growth per capita figures than the EU by borrowing about 6.5% of its GDP from the rest of the world (selling the family silver in other words) for a number of years.

1995-2006
USA_____________________2.175
EU 25___________________2.1375

In fact from 2000 to 2005, when the much-heralded U.S. economic recovery was being fueled by easy credit and a speculative housing market, the 15 core nations of the European Union had per capita economic growth rates equal to that of the United States. In late 2006, they surpassed the USA. Europe added jobs at a faster rate, had a much lower budget deficit than the United States and is now posting higher productivity gains.


(14) Even those US GDP growth figures are open to an accusation of exaggeration because the US government seems to be confused with the difference between GDP and GNP and has been over-estimating US growth for the last few years. I suggest you research Susan N. Houseman under the search term "phantom GDP". If her assertions are true, and it looks very likely, the USA has probably over estimated the growth in US industry by 40% in the last 3 years.


(15) If the USA loses its position as the world's reserve currency it can look forward to hyper inflation and a ruined economy. At least a 1/2 to 2/3 of all US currency is outside the USA being used either for international trade or as reserve currency in national central banks. The vast bulk of that will come home looking for something to buy in the USA. The US government will be able to do nothing. It has negligible foreign reserves to buy the dollars.


(16) China, which holds about $900bn of US Treasuries, agency bonds and dollars, is now in the position that it can dump its dollars on the market if the USA interfered in any China v. Taiwan confrontation. The dollar in its weakened state would almost certainly lose its position as the world's reserve currency.

Some superpower that is in the position that its currency and economy can be destroyed by China.


(17) The USA has to borrow money from the rest of the world, primarily China, to fight its war in Iraq. China is now the USA's banker. No more loans then no more foreign wars. If George Bush wishes to enforce the US's will around the world then needs to ask the Chinese government to lend the USA the money to do so!

How could the USA have been so foolish and greedy to allow itself to be in the position where China controls US foreign military action. Unbeleivable.

Some superpower!


(18) Airbus? You are having a laugh. Airbus is much healthier than Ford and GM. While the EU has a thriving car manufacturing sector, the USA's is going from...well disaster to disaster.


(19) the EU donates just as much if not more foreign aid than the the USA.


(20) The USA isn't defending or incubating the EU. Before the war on terror, as the US likes to call it, the USA was spending about $300 billion on defense while the EU was spending about $200 billion.

Your points, many of which I have already refuted but that you keep on repeating, look rather insignificant in comparison to this list.


Do you honestly think you are winning?


If you do then the word hubris just doesn't capture the magnitude of your misplaced self confidence.


Wake up and smell the coffee before it is too late and the USA is ruined. Americans can choose to believe anything they want. Or rather they could before they became a debtor nation with a huge deficit needing to ask Beijing for loans to finance foreign policy.

anon

Scott, The thing you seem to forget, is that the EU is not a single entity like the US. IT does not work in the manner of a single nation, but rather as 27 INDIVIDUAL nations.

Read [url=http://www.britainusa.com/sections/articles_show_nt1.asp?d=9&i=41020&L1=0&L2=0&a=47327]Europe 2030,[/url]in it, it states that the EU will be a model power, NOT a superpower! The US meanwhile will remain sole superpower, with china and india still up in the air.

I would also like to state that this is a blogosphere. Which means this little debate you two are having is still being read by ppl such as myself, i just took to liberty in writing what I felt.

GK keep up the good work. Your articles are fun and very informational to read!

anon

"(20) The USA isn't defending or incubating the EU. Before the war on terror, as the US likes to call it, the USA was spending about $300 billion on defense while the EU was spending about $200 billion."

Again, 27 different nations with 27 different militarys....

The US acts as a single nation...

"(19) the EU donates just as much if not more foreign aid than the the USA."

No so...As scotland article im about to post states..."PRIVATE American citizens donated almost 15 times more to the developing world than their European counterparts"
http://news.scotsman.com/international.cfm?id=730652005

The US also does more for third world nations in the form of remittances....

"(17) The USA has to borrow money from the rest of the world, primarily China, to fight its war in Iraq. China is now the USA's banker. No more loans then no more foreign wars. If George Bush wishes to enforce the US's will around the world then needs to ask the Chinese government to lend the USA the money to do so!"

Japan is americas #1 lender. US GDP is currently growing faster then Debt is... look it up yourself. ;)

"How could the USA have been so foolish and greedy to allow itself to be in the position where China controls US foreign military action. Unbeleivable."

Examples to help clarify what you meant? Why doesnt China attack taiwan then?

"Some superpower!"

The worlds only...

"(4) The EU is projected to have 6% more of the planet's total wealth than the USA in 2008."

WHile haveing a population that is nearly twice that of the US. Still, EU lags america in per capita terms..(22 years behind to be exact)

You still fail to understand that the EU is not a single nation, but rather an entire continent of a few odd hundred million ppl. The EU is in decline, and will eventually be surpassed by china and possibly later on down the road, india, where as america retains its spot at the top of the totem..

A single nation is bettering an entire continent... I know thats gotta sting...

Renato

"A single nation is bettering an entire continent... I know thats gotta sting..."


I've followed this conversation with interest.


An 'superpower' that can't even hold down a poor Arab country of 16 million people...


More like a toothless old tiger.


It is sad for Americans, who hold such a high opinion of themselves and their country, that the rest of world holds the USA and its people's opinions at an all time low regard. You guys had it all. Then you dropped the ball.


This attitude is even seeping out in the London FT


" http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/86e7d4fe-9f68-11dc-8031-0000779fd2ac.html


America must live with being a bargain basement


But what can the US expect if it lives beyond its means in the way it has in recent years? Its consumption patterns and use of energy have turned other countries into its piggy bank. The credit squeeze has left its financial institutions with weakened capital and in need of equity that Arab funds can provide.

If US consumers had saved more, spent less, and filled up their SUVs less frequently – and US financial institutions had not embarked on their own credit binge – they might not be in such an embarrassing condition. But they acted as they did and must live with a weak dollar."

The Futurist

Renato,

So much ignorance packed in just 1 sentence. Even by European standards, this is poor.

1) Iraq has 25 million people, not 16 million. You might consider actually reading about a subject from time to time.

2) The US has successfully brought Democracy to Iraq, just like it brought it to Germany and Eastern Europe. Europe is too weak to do the same (observe the EU's impotence in handling Bosnia/Kosovo until the US intervened), and hence is jealous.

3) Why are the French and German militaries doing so poorly in Afghanistan, where the US has to repeatedly rescue them from even the most modest of challenges?

Educate yourself with this article from Mark Steyn, a British Canadian.

4) America is viewed positively by most Democracies, particularly India (which is much larger than Europe). America is viewed negatively by unfree nations, mostly. This is why immigrant inflow into America continues to be extremely high.

5) The unusually high Euro is destroying Europe's economy by shrinking EU exports. Airbus' cost structure is no longer competitive, and jobs are leaving the EU to go to the US. A study by the EU shows the EU's economy to be 22 years behind the US. Now THAT is embarassing.

Again, this is an EU study.

6) Earlier links show that the US surpasses the EU in scientific research, space programs, universities, etc.

7) The USD surpasses the Euro as a reserve currency by a 2.5 to 1 margin.

Scott

"(19) the EU donates just as much if not more foreign aid than the the USA."

No so..."


Good try but no cigar. You are wrong again. The EU out donates the USA. Do some research.

OECD figures for 2005.


http://www.oecd.org/countrylist/0,2578,en_2649_34447_1783495_1_1_1_1,00.html


USD (millions)__________________________2005

AUSTRIA______________________________1573
BELGIUM______________________________1963
DENMARK______________________________2109
European Union Central funding___________9390
FINLAND_______________________________902
FRANCE______________________________10026
GERMANY_____________________________10082
GREECE________________________________384
IRELAND_______________________________719
ITALY_________________________________5091
LUxEMBURG_____________________________256
LUXEMBOURG___________________________5115
NETHERLANDS___________________________2786
PORTUGAL______________________________377
SPAIN_________________________________3018
SWEDEN_______________________________3362
UNITED KINGDOM______________________10767

Private EU donations*___________________1500


Total EU ODA______________________________69420


USA_________________________________27622

US private ODA*_______________________22000

Total US ODA______________________________49622


*Carole Adelman's figures, the author of the
Hudson Institute report.

If you check Carole Adelman's figures, report which is here

http://gpr.hudson.org/files/publications/GlobalPhilanthropy.pdf

She doesn't have the figures for EU private donations. She merely estimates them at between $350 million and $1.5 billion. Even if we use her figures, which look rather suspiciously low and are her estimate only, then the EU is still overall more generously. than the USA.


When I researched this 2 or 3 years ago the EU governmental aid was higher than the US government and US private aid combined. It still is.


Adelman (an American of course) noted that the US is

“clearly the most generous on earth in public—but especially in private—giving”,
yet the CGD suggests otherwise, saying that the US does not close the gap with most other rich countries;

“The US gives 13c/day/person in government aid….American’s private giving—another 5c/day—is high by international standards but does not close the gap with most other rich countries.
Norway gives $1.02/day in public aid and 24c/day in private aid”

http://www.cgdev.org/content/opinion/detail/2960/

In other words, the usual blowing of their own trumpet by Americans even though the facts don't stand up.

More American hubris.

When will it ever stop?


GK, you must be feeling really frustrated by now. While I back up my arguments with figures from the IMF, the OECD and the World Bank you can only dig up private Indian FDI consultants and a washed up Canadian journalist called Mark Steyn who got the sack from a British newspaper because he was incapable of writing anything but inane dribble. He now writes for the OC Register (Orange county's news source no less). The Orange county's news source was one of your sources in fact. You must know yourself that you are scraping the bottle of the barrel.

How can you expect anyone to take you seriously?


anon

The problem is, scott, you cannot dispute any of GKs original claims in his article, Its about"what actually makes a SUPERPOWER"!

Now I already showed a link, which was done by an european study that shows the EU will be a model power, and not a superpower. GK was right in his original article. The US will be the worlds sole superpower for decades more to come.

The fact that you insist on being a redundant ass, comparing an entire continent with twice the population of the US, with only holding 6% more of the worlds wealth (which is very debatable) shows just how skewed your argument truly is. (Your reaching in other words)I cant say I dont blame GK for not continuing to respond to your antics.

The Futurist

anon,

You are right. I already applied the Coup de Grace to Scott, and consider him to be utterly and completely defeated in this debate. I will do a version 2.0 of this article at the 2-year anniversary (May 08).

I provide solid sources (from EU and British studies) which I clearly number, yet he still can't admit that the EU is not a country. It has no leader, no common currency across the whole EU, and no common military. Mark Steyn brilliantly explains the psychology of why jealous Europeans fall back to this 'EU is a country' pathology.

Note that Scott actually is suggesting that the US is not a superpower even now. While the article is about whether the US will or will not be a Superpower in 2030, he is laughably disputing that the US is even a superpower today.

Scott

"Now I already showed a link, which was done by an european study that shows the EU will be a model power, and not a superpower."


The link doesn't work. Try it yourself.


"I cant say I don't blame GK for not continuing to respond to your antics."


Its because he can't. Even the CIA factbook doesn't agree with him.


https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ee.html


"Although the EU is not a federation in the strict sense, it is far more than a free-trade association such as ASEAN, NAFTA, or Mercosur, and it has many of the attributes associated with independent nations: its own flag, anthem, founding date, and currency, as well as an incipient common foreign and security policy in its dealings with other nations. In the future, many of these nation-like characteristics are likely to be expanded. Thus, inclusion of basic intelligence on the EU has been deemed appropriate as a new, separate entity in The World Factbook."


"I will do a version 2.0 of this article at the 2-year anniversary (May 08)."


Please do. And when you are at it don't forget to redo your US v. China article only using PPP. That is unless you wish to be seen as hypocritical.


"Mark Steyn brilliantly explains the psychology of why jealous Europeans fall back to this 'EU is a country' pathology."


We aren't jealous. It's just with the Internet we meet lots of factually challenged Americans blowing their own trumpets and asserting how great the USA is compared to everywhere else. That isn't the way to win friends and influence people.

Some of what Americans say is correct. A lot of it isn't, but rather is based on their own out of date misconceptions of the USA in comparison to other countries.

Here's a little titbit for you.

In the year 2000 the USA was responsible for 19% of the world's trade. In 2007 it is now down to 14%. (source The Economist)

It isn't 1950 anymore guys. Learn to deal with it and stop being so full of yourselves.


zyndryl

"If China puts a man on Mars before the US, I may change my opinion on this point, but the odds of that happening are not high."

Actually, the odds are higher than you think. First, thanks to economic growth and technological progress, it is way easier to go to Mars now and will certainly be easier to do so in 2030 than it ever was in the 1960s. Second, the US hasn't done squat in space except engage in massive congressional distric and aerospace contracting rent-seeking that has kept us stuck in LEO ever since the last Apollo flight.

We couldn't go to the Moon tomorrow even though we should have the capability to do so. We are a has-been and you make your arguments based upon those past laurels.

Whereas the Chinese are more 'hungry' and more willing to take risks in space (so far).

zyndryl

Regarding points 9 & 10:

#9 is not needed at all to be a superpower. It's nice but not needed.

#10 you are assuming that China or whomever tries to replace America as the world's hegemon is required to be the same type of hegemon as the US is. That is not so. China would have to take on responsibilities that pertain to only the lower end of the 'internatonal Maslow Heirarchy' -- such as securing world shipping and trade, but not have to be as merciful or self-flagellating as the US is. In fact, the US only is under such pressure in the first place because it is 'too nice' compared to past historical hegemons. No one would even expect that from China. It's very nervous neighbors certainly do not today.

RBB

Great article and (most) posts. There are, I believe, several flies in this rosy seniero:
1. Short term-the next election. Should the democratic candidate win in November, the next four years will make Carter's "malaize" seem like a cakewalk.
2. Long term-the sorry state of US educational achievement.
With both parties pandering to the low skilled immigrant (potiental voters) while restricting needed skills from overseas, the future is not rosy. As foreign econoimies expand, the pool of needed skills will have many more opportunities to migrate to areas where they are welcomed-inaddition to new opportunities in their home country. As I see it,the US's best bet is to muddle through-combined with-an implosion within China. This could result from demographic pressures (the 4-2-1 problem being just one), or very likely, the political meltdown from tensions between free markets (ideas) and communist central control. Wait until after the Olympics to see (if anybody can through the smog) where the pressures wiil erupt.

Jesse

China is strong but only because of their population. When you look at the facts a average American makes $44,000 a year, while a average Chinese makes $7,000 a year. Where would you like to live? China has over 400 million people that are using a cell phone thats more then the entire American population. China also is putting up a new super coal plant up every week. And also a skyscraper every week. But this does not make you a superpower especially when 1 million people in China die every year to pre-mature birth caused by pollution. China has the top 16 of the worlds most polluted cities with Beijing at numero uno! Wow thats awesome that were sending the world's top athletes there to compete if one of them ends up having a heart attack and dies the international community will be very upset. Also Doug is right above me, there are over 160 million men more then females in China. That leaves a lot of men are going to be very unhappy without a spouse. Chinas economy is growing so fast it is not making a base. What happens when the coal that runs their economy runs out. They will crash maybe to hard to get back up. They are not building a base, Its like when Im in Cross-Country pace yourself then sprint the last 100 meters.

Jarhead

The Futurist, awesome article, just wanted to say that your GDP figures of chinas are old and off.

The world bank has published a new report that says chinas economy (using PPP) is overestimated by as little ast 40%. So instead of being a ten trillion dollar economy (using ppp) the chinese economy is more around $5.33T

check it out.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/sunday/commentary/la-op-mead30dec30,0,1035099.story

Jesse

zyndryl maybe you think it is easier to goto Mars NOW then it was going to the moon back in the 60s but you are sorely wrong. Seeing how Mars would take 6 MONTHS TO GET TO IT and then they would have to wait until Mars and Earth are lined up at their closest point which will take another year WHICH MEANS THE ASTRONAUTS WILL HAVE TO BUILD A SMALL SELF SUFFICIENT COMMUNITY FOR A ENTIRE YEAR and then 6 months back to earth A TWO YEAR JOURNEY. that puts a lot of stress on the astronauts who have to live in a area the size of a small apartment. The moon only took 3 days to get there. THE MOON WAS CAKE COMPARED TO GETTING TO MARS RIGHT NOW. China is over 40 decades behind the US in space exploration. NOTICE THE US HAVE SENT PROBES TO ALMOST EVERY PLANET AND MOON IN THE GALAXY SO FAR. China has put a man in space a couple of years ago. wow.
The cost to going to Mars is averaged around 600 billion dollars. Now yes the US could afford it if it wanted to sweat it out but the US wants HUMANKIND to step foot on another planet not just one country. trust me going to mars will be a international project involving many countries to show how far humans have come. I seriously doubt China however will ever step on mars before the US.
do some research dude ignorant comments like yours makes you look stupid

Seán

Well you silly little bitch I see you deleted all my posts because they disagreed with your nonsense. I guess your dumb uhmerican ignorance is all you have left now. Enjoy poverty.

The Futurist

Sean,

None of your posts are deleted. All your displays of stupidity from 2007 are still there.

You clearly have no proper arguments, only childish namecalling, as everyone can see. This proves that you are :

a) insecure and humilated
b) extremely jealous of America

Your indignant helplessness have proven America's dominance. Poverty? People are still streaming out of your country to come to America, while no one leaves America to go to your failed state. tee hee....

golde

I am from India, I appreciate ur Americanism Maria Alice , I really appreciate the United States for most of the work it does, always attending to calls of distress by poor, developing nations. America must not be blamed for all the problems faced by other nations. A superpower is needed to maintain the equilibrium of the world and America is the best superpower in the world. Long Live America and I wish all the Americans all the best

brianoh

Obviously this article is still just as relevant as it was then, or even moreso. One of my objections to China is my view is that it is a fascist state. Much of the world looks to USA for leadership and military protection. Military and wars take money to finance. The USA economy is controlled far too much by the Fed, a non-government institution. Congress is incapable of instituting sound financial policies. Consequently monetary policy is dictated by the Fed, and "sound" economic policies are not even considered. These factors have become more pronounced over the past 10-12 years largely because of the decisions made by Greenspan and his fellow governors. These are the policies that are going to bring the USA to it's knees. It is relying too much on foreign capital. More and more countries are abandoning the USD as a reserve currency. Until the USA returns to budget surpluses, trade surpluses, savings, increasing GDP, stability of it's currency, low inflation, reasonable return on investment (now negative) - it will risk being able to fund it's military. That (the economic fundamentals) in my opinion is the biggest threat to the USA. In addition, I cannot see how this is going to be turned around in the short term.

The only institution that can make quick decisions that have a bearing on the economy is the Fed. (I exclude the $160bn rebates from that statement, because it is a knee-jerk reaction that will not help the economy long-term.) That has caused numerous short-term decisions to be made that have long-term negative economic consequences. To me it seems crazy that an institution such as the Fed wields more economic power than congress and the president. That may be necessary, however the problem is that when they adopt the wrong course of action, they appear unable to abandon it. The governors are all students of the Great Depression, and none want the next one to occur on their watch. That in my opinion is why the current strategies ignore the long-term consequences. What they overlook however is that the cause of the Great Depression was a stock market that rose to unsupportable highs. That lesson had been taught many times, but the Fed chooses to ignore it. USA has been living off inflation for far too long - stocks, houses, CPI. The economy is stealing from future generations. It is interesting that O'Neill was removed or forced to resign as Treasury Secretary because of his insistance that sound economic policies were not being followed. In other words the president wanted a yes man there that would go along with decisions that the public liked. It is also interesting that the present incumbent is not from industry, but from Investment Banking.

In conclusion, I believe that if the above trends continue, the USA will be destroyed from within. The policies being followed are plutocratic and as such will eventually have to be abandoned. Hopefully that will be sooner rather than later.

European Union sucks

The EU sucks

Tony B

China- I live in China.
1. It is a wonderful place to live in.
Really you live live their, so you enjoy people hitting pushing, shoving, kicking, spitting and sneezing on you, with deliberation and no care about their fellow man?
2. The whole country works very very hard and honestly.(ofcourse there are cheats)

Well, that is if you call take naps during the 1.5 - 2 hour lunches. My experience in Chinese factories estimates it takes 10 chinese 2x as long to do the work of 1, non-unionized American.

3.The Way the Government has managed to control and run the whole country from a penniless state in 1947 (When Chenkai Shek took away all its gold) till today is fantastic.

- Is comment really neccessary, well yes, I will not comment on Deng who did make great accomplishments in China, or the current, I will just refer to 1990's Chinese regression policies, that will effect China for the next 15 years

4. China has friendly relations with everyone.

- You might want to double check this fact with Vietnam, Japan, and Korea.
Especially Japan

5. China's Development is very much like that of USA.

- But only comparable to 1880's U.S. in real terms, just because they have the modern devices, they only have them, because they were given to China by the rest of the world.

6. China is the next super power for sure.

- Being a super-power means leading the world, and we are talking about a people who cannot figure out how to form a line at a McDonald's

7.Whatever said and done. China is growing very very fast and we can feel it's speed here everyday - It is a very very vibrant economy and it has everything going for it.
USA might be what you say it is but China is much far better than the USA in many ways.
There is peace and quiet and no disturbance.
All chinese are very patriotic.

- In the last decade China has executed 27 serial killers in Shanghai alone, it holds one of the highest rates of crime in the world, has the single deadliest road death rate in the world. You cannot walk down a street with out seeing a pick-pocket.

The Chinese regularly riot uncontrollably to the point where the military is sent in to break it up, are you sure you live in China, although I admit that the country is doing well, the people areas unsophisticated today, as they were 500years ago, and their standards of hygiene have not improved much either.

But, then again you are comparing the Chinese to India, and I, after my many trips there can understand why, and even though Napolean said, "beware the sleeping giant," no one need fear yet.

Bud

The United States will always be a super power! We have more money than any country in the world not to mention every country lives off of us, when are enconomy goes down the worlds economy goes down!

AK

Without a viable auto industry the US will be a marginal superpower. I mean even the Italians have to help bailout the US auto industry. If you can't beat the Italians then what is the point.

ProudToBeAmerican

It is ARROGANCE and DENIAL that makes a great nation decline.

Americans are not like that. We are not arrogant. Are we??? That's why we'll still be the only superpower until the END OF TIME! Yes, we are INVINCIBLE! We have the best military in the world, more powerful than the ten times the rest of the world combined!!! :P Our economy is not performing badly. The current rumor about the economic problems of our country are nothing but a HOAX! Our economy will never collapse! WE ARE THE RICHEST NATION ON EARTH!!! China and other countries will never equal us. We are centuries ahead of them!!! They'll never catch up.

Ralph

Would you say the same today?

The Futurist

Ralph,

Of course. I even updated the article (see top).

Sarah

I guess it all depends on how one defines "superpower".

I personally find it rather hilarious that you write such a serious essay on the subject, only to count Coca Cola as a contribution to the imagined Super Power status of America. Power is all in the mind. There are only two kinds of power; mental and physical. Would the United States mess up a country that didn't agree with their idea of world order? Sure could. Big army, congratulations. Can you decide to dominate the minds of people all around the world? No, you can't. There may be those who consume it, but there are plenty of people who will question it. USA isn't as culturally influential as they'd like to think they are. Your products can be replaced.

They have this lovely word in Europe for their practising of world history; Eurocentrism. We tend to measure the worth of other nations by our own standards. Because naturally we all think we're the best. If you really believed another country was better than yours, you'd be living there.

You can't measure the future by your own local past, and you can't measure China's possibility of power by American success. New things will be invented, society continuously reinvents itself, and who are you to say America will keep up? Who are you to say that your education is superior in the future? Education itself is a religion. You can't possibly measure by it.

If you're gonna go deep, go deeper.

David

First off thank to everyone who posted a comment I always love reading other points of view.
The truth is that the United States is a very young country, we are an experiment thats still in the early stages of completion. No other country like our has ever existed and I dont think the Star Trek like vision of the future will ever exist like many want. As stated in earlier posts Americans have an advatage above all others, simply we embraced people of all nations. This embrace has often taken advantage of those we accept but like all humans and I mean all humans throughout time we've made mistakes. I agree that China will never achieve world power without first becoming multicultural. Thats what makes the USA so great we adapt and absorbe other ideas and investions and in turn make them better or more profitable for our own benefit.
Lastely to address the military. I admit like many Americans do that our intentions arent always the best, we've killed our share of helpless civilians. But look at the worlds history and you will see how numerous other nations committed atrocities far worse and never once apologized. The Chinese despite numbers could never defeat us in battle, we are a nation born from warfare and we would fight like the devil himself to defend this country. We have the greatest army on earth, the best infantry and most terrifying armoured vehicles to include the M1 Abrams. China has a million man army which consists of brainwashed little people who rely on numbers not skill or training. Anyone can be taught to fire a rifle and run towards the enemy but not everyone can be trained to win.

4blu

Thing is, everyone's outsourcing jobs to China, India, or anywhere else the labor's cheap. And the United States just can't keep sustaining huge budget deficits and loans. By that time virtually all manufacturing of products that come to the U.S. will be done in China, so it won't be too hard for the government to take over all those plants. And then it will be all 1984. Or something like that.

Jeremy

USA did not invent the telephone. Alexander Graham Bell who was born in Scotland, invented the telephone in Canada. He only got his patent in the US.

Shreyank

yup decently good article. superpowerdom isn't only about money and military prowess. but the article doesn't talk talk about India, which i believe is going to be a stronger contender of the status. India does have the capacity and capability to outscore US in the various criterion talked about....

The Futurist

Shreyank,

While India's progress is solid, there is no chance of India achieving these points by 2030.

China is at least far enough along that the topic merits debate. India is simply too far behind to catch up by 2030.

Dan

why should china apologize for tiananmen square? it was a bunch of students trying to cause trouble, a bit like yobs and hooligans at football matches in western society.

and why should they apologize for tibet? they liberated it. before they liberated it, there was the 5% in charge and the 95% who were slaves. the 5% in charge could do what they liked to the 95%. if the slaves tried to run away, then they would cut their feet off and make things out of their skin. and guess which percent the dalai lama was in before he got kicked out? the 5%. thats why chinese people get pissed off when he visits other countries and says he likes their freedom

Abraiz

I know most of you won't believe but ISRAEL is one and only next super power. This world is today ruled according to Jews. America is just a wall which is hiding actual rulers.

Anonymous Coward

Very nice article, filled me with optimism and hope. I don't like what the US did in many places to keep it's utopian glory intact back home, (like funding dictatorships in South America and the Middle East), but heck, the utopian glory is WORTH IT!

I am constantly thinking of moving to America, as the limitless opportunity there is just awesome. Thanks for writing this article...

420

"Part of the opposition that anti-Americans have to the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq is the envy arising from the US being the only country with the means to invade multiple medium-size countries in other continents and still sustain very few casualties."

That's right, we're all just jealous of your ability to carry out multiple simultaneous slaughters. USA! USA! Consider that not everyone has such a raging hard on for violence, and you might begin to understand why people around the world object to your constant and consistent use of naked force whenever it suits you.

"If the US grows by 3.5% a year for the next 25 years"

lol, maybe that seemed reasonable in 2006 but it sure looks silly now.

The Futurist

420 (an appropriate name),

Your memorized parroted jingoism has already been pre-empted and debunked by the article.

The US is seeing 3.0% GDP growth in 2010 and 2011, as per The Economist (a British magazine), and the World Bank.

Your comment contains no intelligent points.

RandomPerson

What most people, mainly Americans do not realize is that America's 'superpower' is through media. Mainstream music, rappers, press, that sort of thing. Is anybody failing to realize that the US is on the verge of a double-dip recession, it is becoming more hated by the second, and its military is not what you say it is? The moon landing, I give you, well done. But fuck off, seriously it was 41 years ago. The American military has won very few wars, it spends billions on it every year and it is still as useless shit as a pork butcher in Jerusalem. Somalia, fail. Vietnam, fail. Iraq, fail. Afghanistan, failING. Only 13 universities are in the top 20, stop talking shit. And what good do the Universities do? Your unemployment rate - HIGH. Obesity percentage - HIGH. And your average IQ is lower than the global average. Rofl, China owns you. Man, do you make me laugh. As if the US economy, during a recession can say in 25 years its economy will be miles ahead of anyone elses. It's the 21st century. You've yet to have a crash, and this time you might not recover. Slavery? Who gives a fuck. IRAQ? AFGHANISTAN? VIETNAM? SOMALIA? Yeah, because you never killed anyone in those wars...
It is time America sees past its 'superiority' and wakes up. You will not always be a superpower, you've never been the best country in the world and you freaking need to get free healthcare!

one

Soviet Union has severely constrained United States global hegemony for over 40 years, de facto getting a comparable share of world power, and this has been done never reaching more than 50% of US gdp (reached just before of the fall). China will reach 50% of US GDP far before 2030. The outlook suggests that China by next decades will be much more popular and central in world economics and world culture than Soviet Union has ever been, and that the military, although inferior, will grow in a serious opponent (thing which the US army has already acknowledged).

So we may well think twice...

--

Also as far as the point about education system prestige, quality immigration magnetism, foreign aid / financial power and capability to fascinate other countries, it is worth considering that:

-China can "call back " easily over 120 millions of qualified, well-educated emigrants with foreign experience from its own diaspora around the world, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overseas_Chinese

-China investment is vital in keeping USA's indebted, consumerism oriented economy alive (and China industry is vital for world manifacture, much more than USA's), http://www.businessweek.com/blogs/eyeonasia/archives/2010/03/chinas_foreign.html

-China is already a strong leader in independent investment (which is as much important as charity / aid) in Africa and S.America. It sponsors and executes alot of engineering and infrastructure projects in countries actually where Westerners refuse to (Sudan, Zimbawe, but not only), often defeating the effects of US ordered embargoes (so it is also foreign policy power). http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65916/deborah-brautigam/africa%E2%80%99s-eastern-promise


-The ascension of China itself is a strong leit-motiv and a fascinating fact that attracts alot of cash and a lot of travelling in the country, making it clearly much more palatable for the average observer than some boring US allies like, say - Saudi Arabia or Poland. http://en.expo2010.cn/

So this article is clearly criticable / confutable at several levels. China is already a worldiwide and relevant counter-power strong enough to disturb the United States.

MARIO

The only POWER that will exist now and for a very long time perhaps 4 ever , is that of the United States... China does not even compare to the US.. 1st of all China is not 100% with the FREEDOM RIGHTS so the people would not accept it as the World Leader, 2ND the US has a better shot at making reasonable decisions on issues due to the diversity of people it has... 3rd i will never serve communist country... ENOUGH SAID

Jarl

far too much bullshit to start discussing.
I'll only adress 1 historical event and reflect on the situation.

In the case of WWII, most people tend to forget some quite simple facts.
If US had not intervened in the war what would the outcome be ?
Well hard to say, but a good chance is that USSR would have fallen, German and Japanese forces would have a celebration day when they met each other in Mongolia/India/Sibera.
So Europe and Asia under axis control. Leaving the US, South America and Africa vs. Asia and Europe.
That would have left America in quite a tight spot.

So all things aside, viewed from a longer term strategic perspective, US saved it's own ass while it had the chance, and who's to blame them for that. I am certainly grateful that the Monroe doctrine was abandoned.


I realize this debate is quite old, but just to throw some gasoline on a old firesite, and hope it might catch a spark...

What China actually needs to attain superpowerdom or even hyperpowerdom, is the same that the US needed in this century.
A strong external enemy.
So in the next 20 years we will probably see something similar to 911 in China, where a lot of Han chinese are killed in a terrorist accident, and the population comes undivided together to crush its external enemies.

Blaggard

Patriotic rubbish.

Blaggard

haha, good to see someone like Sean destroying you deluded American invalids. The reactions to his posts are hilarious btw. So Angry! hahahaha. Wow the truth really does hurt doesn't it.

USA Wins

Blaggard the Faggot,

Actually, it is pretty clear that it is you (aka Sean) who got destroyed. Sean made no points, just screamed like a typical idiot who is jealous of the US.

Whiny little faggot.

asdf

2030 is too soon.

I would say 2100, easy.

China is simply bigger than the US, and if it industrializes, it will focus on math/science.

Don't worry, relative decline is a painful process. You think the Brits are happy-clappy during the entire process of relative decline. Hardly.

asdf

If the Soviet Union was classified as a Superpower, then China most definitely will qualify for the title by 2030.

Liaogangzheng

Hi The Futurist,

For Point 7 i am disappointed that you did not use Kung Fu panda. Finding nemo is shit

add in these 2 URLs as well to rub salt in chinese wounds

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/20/weekinreview/20bernstein.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/11/AR2008071103281_2.html?sid=ST2008071102625

Joshua

Long live are superpower status. fuck china

Zhi Chen

USA has been a great country for the last century, All the points The Futurist pointed out are very true. But China was also a super power for a long time in history. It just started to fall behind the western countries for the last 200 years or so, due to many internal/external factors. As a Chinese who got high eductions and has been working in the US, I like US and China as well, I truly hope the people of these 2 countries can be friendly.

Zhi Chen

USA is very inclusive towards foreign nationals, after all, it is a immigrant country, composed by people of diverse background and culture. It is this diversity that made US successful in almost all areas. This inclusiveness is changing though. The immigration policy is getting tighter. This could lead to smart people go to somewhere else instead of US, and create competition agains US, and without those smart people who innovates, and tougher competition globally, US will be having more difficult maintaining its leadership in so many ways. That's why Obama is worried about US media puts a lot attention on lawyers, entertainers, doctors but not so much on scientists and engineers.

Zhi Chen

I am leaning towards democracy but one part rule has its own advantage: it is decisive in doing things. The two parties in the US make sure things do not go too left or right but sometimes, congress just cannot get things done. That's is not good. But I guess that's the necessary price you need to pay for democracy.

Zhi Chen

China is gaining its strength. Its leaders now are very smart. They do not care much about anything else but stay extremely focused on improving its economy (they are making a huge effort on redirecting its economy from labor intensive type to ones like westerns), people's living standards. On the other hand, it has so many tough problems that are extremely difficult to solve: environmental problem, aging society, unequal wealth distribution, and so forth. I hope China maintains the steady pace and keeps the society stable. That's crucial to its success. If there comes another culture revolution type of thing, China would go back another 30 years. But if the leaders have the wisdom, (they're doing great now) they would be able to bring prosperity to China, and hopefully benefit other parts of the world. Please do not always treat China as an enemy, but instead view it as a partner who has different ideology (not better but different).

Zhi Chen

If US wants to maintain its leadership, US people (can be proud of their achievement, but) cannot be arrogant. It's like the race between the rabbit and the turtle. It should keep on doing things that makes US successful, like attracting brilliant people in the world to come and work for it. In this global economy era, country who gets the brains will win out. no question about it. I am little concerned that according to the 2010 census, within 3 decades or so, hispanic will become the majority in the US, and the level of education here might not be... If US loses all the top notch scientists and engineers who used to be welcomed in this country, instead of being blamed for taking american jobs (they're actually creating more jobs, according to NBC reports), the next "Google" might not be in US, the next "internet" might be invented somewhere else, and the next person who "landed the moon/mars/..." might not be an american, and the next most powerful weapons might not be made in the USA.

Zhi Chen

I watched and old movie "E.T" not long ago. at that time, the difference of stands of living between US and China is gigantic that I am stunned to see how much an average americans had and how little their counterpart Chinese had, but today, China's living standards has caught up quite a bit, and yet the Chinese government still tries hard to consult economical gurus, experts on how to take that further. They invest big on infrastructure building, on eduction. If they make it right, and the Chinese people are united, as they show in the Beijing Olympic opening ceremony, to see they achieve some astounding would be a great surprise to me.

Zhi Chen

Wish USA and China the best.
(And please be respectfully disagree, and don't attack fellow human's dignity)

daggyboy

The Chinese are still turning out more PHD's than the US. BTW - I am very pro US.

Manoj Kumar

Wat an outdated thought process.... wish u had foreseen the scenarios more properly... now US is in the brink of a default... less than 4 years since u wrote the article.. China's economy will overtake US in no time... in other words, US will succumb to itself... its an uselesss country anyway

The Futurist

Manoj Kumar,

As usual, many Indians have no clue about how the broader world works, as you demonstrated. An Indian rooting for China is like an Indian rooting for Pakistani Jihadis.

Oh, and the 'useless' US invented the Internet that you use, btw. India produces no scientific innovations whatsoever.

'Outdated'? Look who is talking. Anyone who uses the letter 'u' to replace the word 'you' is not a thinker.

Manoj Kumar

lol... wen u say usage of letter "u" makes someone a non-thinker, it jus proves again how "stereotyped" & "outdated" u're. u can keep dreaming that US will be a world super power forever but the fact is tht it had been always been destined only to be a temporary star... Man, FED just talked about QE3 in 2011 & u're talking about it being a super power in 2030...while I agree that UK had been a genuine super power for a couple of centuries, US is not half good as UK anyway. As a matter of fact, US is the only "useless" country that would print "non-existent" money & infact aid others... cant get funnier than that... hope u're not still living in 1955... it jus enjoyed its 15 seconds of fame and no better than a toilet paper anymore... China & India dominated the world until 1800 & they're coming back again cos their fundamentals are strong...

The Futurist

Manoj Kumari,

You continue to prove why India is a country mired in poverty and filth.

At least the majority of Indians view the US positively, that too under Bush. You don't even know your own country.

For one thing, your knowledge of economics is zero. QE3 = the end of America? Dude, America has invented just about everything in the last 100 years. Frankly, you are jealous.

I see you cannot actually debate the points in the article, due to your lack of education. And an Indian who is giddy about China is like a Hindu who supports Pakistan. Your whole brain is inverted.

Oh, and someone who does not know that 'u' should not replace 'you' is not a thinker, and does not even speak English well.

Read the article again, and increase your education.

Wiggs

I would just like to combat some of the Anti-America going on. America is only an influx of ideals that came from immigration and growth. It's a country born from other countries, just like how those countries were not always existent. It is quite possible that a time will come when countries are less individual than they are, and we'll all be united under one banner. To say America will always be just isn't true. I do believe, however, that the ideals it took to forge America will persist. To have rights and freedom are noble goals, and I don't see those changing. America was created by those wishing to have a better quality of life, and that notion will sustain itself.

The Futurist, I very much appreciated what you wrote and I actually read this entire article and debate for over 3 hours in the early morning. I gained a lot of patriotism after reading what you wrote, and the veil that was introduced by a lot of negativity towards the US was uplifted. Thanks

This is purely opinion based, and I wish everyone the best.

Troy Parfitt

This is a note to the owner of this site. My name is Troy Parfitt and I'm the author of Why China Will Never Rule the World. I was wondering if you'd like to receive a review copy of my book in exchange for consideration for review/mention here. Sorry. I would have contacted you directly, but I don't see a place to do that. Thank you.

Andrea

@ Scott:
"America has saved Western Europe twice in the last 70 years."
That is statement that is only accepted, unthinkingly, in the USA.

I'm German and I accept this statement. You shouldn't talk about other people if you don't know what they're thinking.

Lukaku

Very good article one point however the telephone was infant invented by Alexander Graham bell who you will infect find us a Scotsman. The Scottish also invented the television and discovered penicillin!
As you can draw from these facts I am also a Scotsman and proud of it however it would like to state that the UK economy is outrageous. We are screwed.

j

it's 2011 Oct now.

The US growth rate is no where close to 3.5% for the past 3 years.

China's still at 9+%

Just an update.

CHARLIE

All great points, some definitely of more significant than others, but still very accurate and helpful.

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