The Age of Democracy

We often hear about how the US has no business spreading democracy to other nations by force, or how Islamic societies are not capable of functioning as liberal democracies.  But how well do these conclusions stand up to the historical trends in the evolution of democracy? 

First, consider that economic growth is exponential and accelerating, and the trendline of world economic growth is now close to 5% a year at Purchasing Power Parity. 

Next, consider that conflict between nations drops as freedom and economic growth increases.  No two nations that are both democracies and have per capita incomes greater than $10,000 a year have ever gone to war with each other, and the number of countries meeting these two criteria continues to rise. 

Lastly, let us measure the spread of democracy across the world in recent times.  The map below is the result of research conducted by Freedom House (source : Wikipedia).  Countries in green are free, yellow are partially free, and red are unfree.

From this, a few observations can be made :

1) The Western Hemisphere has done a much better job of establishing democracy than the Eastern Hemisphere, with 90% of Western Hemisphere residents living in green counties. 

2) India is hugely important to any discussion of increasing democracy in the world, given its size and what it is surrounded by.  The US would do well to cultivate broader ties with India as quickly as possible, and India would do well to cooperate rather than revert back to 'non-aligned' nonsense. 

The next question is, is there a rate at which the nations of the world have evolved towards democracy?  The same research from freedom house shows the growth in green countries at the expense of red countries from 1972 to today. 

 

The march towards democracy appears to be quite solid, and includes such events as the collapse of the USSR and liberation of Eastern Europe.  This chart unfortunately treats all countries equally, regardless of size, and thus does not take into account that Democracy in India is more valuable to the world than democracy in Estonia.  Nonetheless, a population-weighted chart would still show a similarly rapid migration from red to yellow to green - 1 billion people have upgraded at least one level since 1972 alone. 

The question now becomes, have the prospects for democracy saturated, where any nation that had the basic cultural foundations of democracy has already become one, and those without this foundation will take a very long time to adapt?  Or is the trend we see in the chart still alive?  To believe that the evolution of nations towards democracy will continue unabated, two things have to occur : 

1) China will have to move from the red column to the yellow column.  China is rapidly closing in on a GDP per capita greater than $10,000 per year, and this has usually corelated to greater political freedom in most nations.  I believe China will make such reforms by 2015, when they see that their robust economic growth has trouble advancing further without such freedoms.  Such a change in China would move the entire center of gravity of the world's governments significantly towards freedom. 

2) Afghanistan and Iraq will have to become genuine green countries.  There are many reasons to believe that this will be achieved in Iraq by 2008.  Anti-Americans, who are generally opposed to democracy, have attempted to sabotage these efforts, but have exhausted most of the tricks available to them.  Once these two beacons of democracy are established, the rest of the region will have an open flank exposed to the winds of freedom. 

These two events will trigger another wave of the democratic domino effect in countries throughout the continent of Asia.  Many countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan, Malaysia, and Iran all have GDP growth rates greater than 6%, and in order to continue this growth, political freedom is a necessity that they will have eventually evolve towards.  Catalysts like the two events above could be just the thing to move more reds to yellows and yellows to greens. 

Related :

The Winds of War, the Sands of Time

Economic Growth is Exponential and Accelerating

We Will Decisively Win in Iraq...in 2008

Comments

[Richie]

Taiwan should loudly accept reunification with mainland China with the precondition of democracy for the Chinese.

[JG]

Yeah, it's great that another side-effect of 9/11 is that 'democracy by force' has become such a central plank of GOP policy & so it's heartening to see GWB welcoming Nursultan Nazarbayev, president of Kazakhstan to the US. This guy is amazingly popular, by most accounts winning 90% of that country's democratic election (the MSM was predictably skeptical though!), which is fortunate because a strong leader is required for the transition to a green country. Even better is the vast unlocked mineral wealth to be found in Kazakhstan which can be released by close ties to the US; that way we get gas & they get to increase their GDP while strengthening their ties as allies in the War On Terror against the Muslim scourge - a virtuous circle indeed.

Unfortunately it doesn't appear to be going so well in Afghanistan & Iraq, but surely one of the other beneficial side-effects of removing the Taleban is the massive increase in the opium trade. This will allow the citizens there to increase their GDP (plus leftists can get a steady supply of smack...lol!) & join the ranks of the green countries.
Iraq maybe a mess now (or so we are told by MSM) but come 2008, as other postings predict, it will indeed be a beacon despite all the odds stacked against it - with the amount of US taxpayers dollars being spent there how could it NOT be a storming success story?

[Tushar D]

JG, apart from copious amounts of snark, do you actually have a point here?

[JG]

What do you mean by snark, Tushar?

[GK]

Note that the article said "Leftists, who are generally opposed to democracy, have attempted to sabotage these efforts".

JG has confirmed the priorities of leftist ideology.

[Chuck the Lucky]

Tushar probably means that you are as transparent as empty space and that you are adopting the facade of a fellow evil old neo-con Bushie to set up a straw man of what you see as their position. He just didn't assumed that you would have so much contempt for readers as to think that we would all fall for it and play dumb when challenged. He thus assumed that you were being sarcastic, not stupid.

If you are going to use sophistries to substitute for reason, you might want to at least become good at sophistry.

[Chuck the Lucky]

Interesting how JG ignores Jimmy Carter's love affair with Hugo Chavez. And Castro's popularity with the left.

[JG]

That was not the welcome I was expecting Chuck but thanks for clarifying GK's crytic comment!
I am perplexed as to how finding a blog & agreeing with the posts therein makes me a sophist & a leftist sympathiser. Are you a teensy bit paranoid?
I suppose it's an easy mindset to fall into when MSM is so against the actions in Afghanistan & Iraq, but not me, I am proud that GWB is carrying the flag of freedom around the world!
I look forward to reading future posts plus the back-catalog, & remember, it's not easy to be a visionary, look what happened to Galileo!

[Chuck the Lucky]

I can't believe you still think you are fooling anyone. Can you not just read your own comments and see that they are in no way convincing? Every comment in this thread has pegged you as a leftist wearing a home made right-wing sock puppet.

If you are really not a moonbat you will probably find this link and the movies it contains interesting.

[Tushar D]

JG, I think you are a Moby. Now don't ask me what that means.

[Bingo Bango Boingo]

Freedom House, which the OP relies upon, states that Kazakhstan is 'not free'. Question: is it OK for the US to align itself with the government of a 'not free' country in order to serve the broader purpose of spreading democracy elsewhere?

Also, if I criticise one person for apparent hypocrisy, does that mean I need to list every other instance of similar wrongdoing for me to maintain credibility? I note that Chuck the Lucky's post re: Jimmy Carter and Hugo Chavez doesn't actually address the Kazakhstan issue.

BBB

[GK]

BBB,

Yes, it is. There is the concept of the greater evil.

The US had to align with Stalin to defeat someone who was even worse, and our direct enemy, Hitler.

If Egypt, Kuwait, the UAE, Pakistan, and Jordan are occasionally helpful to us in some capacity in the WoT, would it be sane to turn them down?

Kazakhstan isn't quite a country with mass graves that invades its neighbors and threatens to obliterate Israel, you know. I thought the left says that we should do more to reach out to moderate Muslims? That we should form more alliances?

By the same token, was France not wrong to side with Saddam against the US, if France is supposedly a proponent of democracy and human rights?

[JG]

Exactly right GK, those surrendering cheese monkeys side with anyone to benefit their economic progress, no matter how much of a tyrant!

If Kazakhstan can help us stem the flow in the War on Terror and we can help them boost their GDP to become a 'green' country, then we would indeed be insane not to pursue the realpolitik involved - even if they are Muslims.

I for one, don't believe that GWB will make the same mistakes that have been made in the past, when it comes to supporting regimes the leftists despise: his policies are much more intelligent, linked, as they are, to the spread of freedom.

[JG]

Tushar, is Moby that bald, vegan electronica guy? From New York.
I don't listen to any of that plinky plonky garbage, so if there's a message in one of his songs that you're trying to convey, I'm afraid it's lost on me.

[JG]

Chuck, maybe you could give us your view on Kazakhstan? Do you agree with GK or does the realpolitik make you uncomfortable?

[Tushar D]

JG, your favourite musician Moby suggested in some forum that Liberals should go to Conservative websites disguised as Conservatives, and sow dissention. After that, anyone who tries that trick is called a Moby. You have to be a really good Moby to not get caught. Some have succeeded. You have not.

[JG]

You seem to know an awful lot about him Tushar. Did he also say that the best way to hide that you're a Moby is to accuse someone else of being one?

[Tushar D]

>>Did he also say that the best way to hide that you're a Moby is to accuse someone else of being one?

Did I pretend to be either a Conservative or a Liberal?

[Gang of One]

Hello GK,
Please forgive the OT nature of this post. I would like to ask you a few questions regarding this phenomenon called the Singularity. I hvae clicked on your link to this, but do not find anything addressed to this as such. I don't want to take up bandwidth asking questions here, but if you would be so kind as to drop me a note at the e-mail address embedded in my nic, I would be most grateful.

[Josh]

These two events will trigger another wave of the democratic domino effect in countries throughout the continent of Asia.

How will this work?

[GK]

Josh,

What do you mean? How did so many countries (even outside of the former USSR) become free between 1972 and 2005?

Through democracy in neighboring countries.

Many Asian countries that are red or yellow have recently experienced huge increases in GDP growth rates. This often is followed by pressure for political freedom.

[Josh]

How did so many countries (even outside of the former USSR) become free between 1972 and 2005?

Through democracy in neighboring countries.

Step 1: Democracy in country A.

Step 2: ?????

Step 3: Democracy in neighboring country B.

What's step 2? Where do the underpants gnomes come into play?

[GK]

Josh,

This is explained in the article. As GDP growth increases, per capita incomes rise, and there is pressure within countries to reform. If a neighboring country has democracy, that also causes pressure to reform in an unfree country.

If you disagree, why don't you explain to us why so many countries (even outside of the former USSR) became free from 1972 to 2005. Also, do you think that the current level of 'green' countries has hit a ceiling, or that there is still a trend towards more freedom?

[Chuck the Lucky]

Kazakhstan is the issue now right? Not that JK was setting himself up as a living straw man. Okay. But as for as for BBB's statement:

"I note that Chuck the Lucky's post re: Jimmy Carter and Hugo Chavez doesn't actually address the Kazakhstan issue."

I was not trying to address the Kazakhstan issue in that comment. I was noting that someone who was posting in the manner of a left-wing smart-ass using a right-wing sock puppet was decrying hypocrisy of the president for dealing with a leader of an unfree nation to achieve a working relationship for an end that would promote development lives and stability in the region while ignoring how the left loves to meet with openly hostile leaders of unfree nations in order to... What exactly is that for again? Oh yeah, to promote instability, anti-Americanism, anti-Israel sentiment and doomed economic policies that lead to chaos. My point was that charges of hypocrisy are pretty weak when the skeleton in your own closet is 15 feet tall. So no you don't need to mention every other instance of hypocrisy when you make a charge of it. But if you are casually lobbing the label around it might be want to be standing on a part of the political landscape that is vulnerable to back splash.

But before I am accused of ducking the all important issue of Kazakhstan, of which I did not know this thread was about, let me give my answer. I approve of having only the relationship with a cooperating but unfavorable party that is needed to raise the sum total of free nations. America should have (and I believe has) criticized the Kazakhstan government (which, lets face it, is as unfree as it is because of Russian interference) but I would support a continued reassessment of their worth as a partner in Asia. Nazarbayev should be under no illusions of a long term favorable relationship without significant reforms.

But what about JG and BBB. Since you care so deeply about Kazakhstan and are not just using it as a means to distract from the topic of increasing democracy in the world, I wonder if you would call for sanctions and an end to all ties to the nation? Were such sanctions so effective in Iraq that you would ask the UN to repeat the procedure in Kazakhstan?

[Josh]

If a neighboring country has democracy, that also causes pressure to reform in an unfree country

How?

If you disagree, why don't you explain to us why so many countries (even outside of the former USSR) became free from 1972 to 2005.

My guess is that whether a country moves from non-freedom to freedom depends on a whole host of factors. While having free neighbors may play some role, I'd imagine that the political situation within a particular country would be the most important factor in whether it was able to transition from unfree to free. For example, many Middle Eastern countries are unfree, despite having a free neighbor in Israel.

Also, do you think that the current level of 'green' countries has hit a ceiling, or that there is still a trend towards more freedom?

Again, this would require a detailed analyisis of the political situation within each of the countries in question which would be more suited to an academic paper than a blog.

I hope that the green trend continues but I fear many of the countries on the map, most notably Russia and China, will not fall into the "free" category for some time. There may be an advance for freedom i n some of the smaller countries but I fear we may be in this situation where only about half the world enjoys basic political freedoms for a few decades. China in particular is a problem, as GDP is growing at a stupendous rate without much pressure to liberalize the country's politics.

[GK]

Gang of One,

The Technological Singularity is a theory which states that the accelerating rate of change on many fronts will continue to accelerate until it becomes 'human surpassing'. This could take many forms, such as a merger of artificial and human intelligence. But the form it takes is highly speculative.

Most futurists estimate that this will happen at some point in the 21st century. My own estimation is 2050.

Read this for more :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

[Gang of One]

GK,
Thanks for the definition. I did indeed go to Wiki and read up on it. Now I can better understand your articles regarding the theory.

[Alex]

JG

>GWB welcoming Nursultan Nazarbayev, president of Kazakhstan to the US.

Actually, he is a dictator elected in a democratic way... His views are very similar to the nationalistic ones, his goverment is oppressing minorities in its own country...

> Muslim scourge

Do you think that Muslims are the source of all problems in the contemporary world?
How foolish of you...