The Futurist

A Hornet-sized Robotic Insect Can Now Fly

A robotic insect, similar in size and weight to a wasp or hornet, has successfully taken flight at Harvard University (article and photo at MIT Technology Review).  This is an amazing breakthrough, because just a couple of years ago, such robots were pigeon-sized, and thus far less useful for detailed military and police surveillance. 

At the moment, the flight path is still only vertical, and the power source is external. Further advances in the carbon polymer materials used in this robot will reduce weight further, enabling greater flight capabilities.  Additional robotics advances will reduce size down to housefly or even mosquito dimensions.  Technological improvements in batteries will provide on-board power with enough flight time to be useful.  All of this will take 5-8 years to accomplish.  After that, it may take another 3 years to achieve the capabilities for mass-production.  Even then, the price may be greater than $10,000 per units.

Needless to say, by 2017-2020, this may be a very important military technology, where thousands of such insects are released across a country or region known to contain terrorists.  They could land on branches, light fixtures, and window panes, sending information to one another as well as to military intelligence.  Further into the future, if these are ever available for private use, than that could become quite complicated.

Four Headlines on Iraq

Look at this screenshot from the Yahoo front page, where four simultaneous headlines speak volumes about which groups seek which outcomes in Iraq.

The first is "Iraq warns against early US withdrawal", which makes sense, given that there will be a massive civil war in the event of a US withdrawal, leading to the possibility of a genocide greater than the one that resulted from the US withdrawal from Vietnam in 1973. 

The second states that Barack Obama, who aspires to become President of the United States, believes preventing genocide is not enough of a reason to remain in Iraq. 

The third headline is about Kosovo, which is unrelated to Iraq, except that it is a country that a Democratic President sent troops to in order to prevent ethnic cleansing, and where we still have troops after 10 years.

The fourth headline is similar to the first, except that it is US generals pleading for more time in Iraq, than the Iraqis themselves.  Thus, the US generals and Iraqi government appear to both want the US to maintain troops for longer. 

Whether the loss of 80 US troops a month for the next 12, 24, or 120 months in order to prevent the death of 2-3 million Iraqis is an acceptable exchange or otherwise is an individual decision, and perhaps not an easy one. 

Rather, the following points reveal themselves through each of the headlines :

1) Obama would not have said what he did if it were not an opinion held by a sizable percentage of Americans, perhaps even a majority.  I would agree that it is not America's job to sacrifice our own troops to prevent uncivilized cultures from defaulting to their traditional behaviors.  More than that, though, the fact that he is suggesting exactly the opposite of what both the Iraqi government and US generals want should be noted.  Thus, the hidden message here is that war supporters must articulate that the prevention of genocide is not the only reason to remain in Iraq, and that there are reasons to continue that are beneficial to American interests.  Obama has just given war supporters a clue on how to focus their words to make their case. 

2) Why do we still have troops in Kosovo after 10 years?  Or in Germany and Japan for 62 years and South Korea for 54 years.  Granted, they are not involved in active combat, but should we not withdraw troops first from where they have been the longest?  Those advocating withdrawal should have very detailed answers to this question.

3) Where are those who say we should "listen to the generals"?  Why not listen to them now?  What, exactly, determines when a general's opinion matters and when it does not?

Nonetheless, as predicted in May 2006, victory in Iraq is on track to be achieved in 2008.  I won't repeat points I have made before, except provide an update that the quantifiable metrics are continuing to trend favorably, and that is what supercedes all else in laying the foundations to shape the long-term judgment of history.

Economic Growth is Exponential and Accelerating, v2.0

If we were to make a list of subjects ranked by the gap between the civilizational importance of the topic and the lack of serious literature devoted to it, historical acceleration of economic growth would be very near the top of the list.  I wrote an article on the subject way back on January 29, 2006 (version 1.0), but now it is time for a much more substantial treatise. 

To whet your appetite, read the article "Are You Acceleration Aware?", which is the critical piece of any attempt at Futurism.

In the modern age, we take for granted that the US will grow at 3.5% a year, and that the world economy grows at 4% to 4.5% a year.  However, these are numbers that were unheard of in the 19th century, during which World GDP grew under 2% a year.  Prior to the 19th century, annual World GDP growth was so little that changes from one generation to the next were virtually zero.  Brad Delong has some data on World GDP from prehistoric times until 2000 AD. 

If I put historical per-capita GDP through 2000 in a logarithmic timescale, we see the following :

The theme of acceleration readily presents itself here, and even disruptive events like the Greagt Depression still do not cause more than a temporary deviation from the long-term trendline.  A different representation of the data would be to notice the shrinking intervals that it takes for per-capita World GDP to double.

10000 BC to 1500 : 11500 years without doubling

1500 to 1830 : 330 years

1830 to 1880 : 50 years

1880 to 1915 : 35 years

1915 to 1951 : 36 years (Great Depression and World Wars in this period)

1951 to 1975 : 24 years (recovery to trendline)

1975 to 2003 : 28 years

2003 to 2024-2027? : 21-24 years (on current trends)

This not only further reveals acceleration, but also indicates that massively disruptive world events still result in merely temporary deviations from the long-term trendline. 

Additionally, we can take the more granular IMF data of recent World GDP growth, and plot a trendline on it.  Both nominal and PPP growth rates are available, and are diverging due to the increasing size and growth rates of India and China.  Unfortunately, the IMF data only goes back to 1980, and 28 years are not enough to plot an ideal trendline, but nonetheless, the upward slope is distinct, and recessions (which still do not push World GDP growth into negative territory) are invariably followed by steep recoveries. 

It is also important to note that the standard deviation of the IMF data for World GDP growth rates is about 1% a year, for both the nominal and PPP series (1.07% and 1.14% respectively, to be exact).  The rules of standard deviations dictate that 68% of the time, a data point will be within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% will be between two standard deviations, and 99.7% will be within three. 

Thus, in a simple example, if the World GDP growth trendline is currently at 4% a year, there is a 68% chance that the next year will be between 3% and 5%, and there is only a 0.3% chance that the next year will be below 1% or above 7% growth.  This means that a worldwide recession with a year of negative growth is extremely improbable, just as improbable as a year with stupendous 8% growth.  There is not a single year in the 1980-2007 IMF data with negative GDP growth, and virtually none under 1% growth. 

Pessimists like to say that "the Great Depression will happen again", but not only was the Great Depression at a time when the trendline was at a lower annual growth rate than today, but the Great Depression comprised of 6 years of GDP falling below the trendline, simply because it followed a period of many years where GDP was substantially above the trendline.  Furthermore, this was for US GDP.  World GDP's deviations may have been even less severe, as some nations, such as France, Japan, and China, were left relatively unscathed by the Great Depression. 

Now, what happens if we project these trendlines through the 21st century?   The dotted red line represents the median trend assuming that nominal and PPP growth rates converge at some intermediate level. 

 

I can apply this trendline for World GDP growth, make assumptions of total world population to arrive at per capita World GDP growth, and add it back to the first graph.  The assumed growth rates, by decade, in per capita income are :

2007-2020 : 3.5%

2020-2030 : 3.5-4.0%

2030-2040 : 4.0-5.0%

2040-2050 : 5.0-6.0%

This leads to estimates for per-capita GDP at PPP, in 2007 dollars, to be :

2007 : $10,000

2020 : $15,155

2030 : $22,400

2040 : $32,600 - $36,000

2050 : $53,200 - $64,500

Which, when plotted, provides the following :

Or, when a longer view is taken, in terms of logarithmic periods going back from the year 2050, we see :

   

Needless to say, this degree of acceleration in economic growth affects nearly every possible facet of the world in the 21st century.  From a continually rising stock market to the proliferation of millionaires to the rapid upliftment of all metrics of human development, massive abundance is a certainty.  The inevitable derivatives of wealth, such as the spread of democracy, the upliftment in the sophistication of human psychology, and thus a corresponding drop in warfare, will soon follow.  Resolving current problems, such as reducing poverty in developing regions, to funding sophisticated healthcare technologies, to increasing literacy, to funding ambitious space exploration, are merely just a matter of time. 

Inevitably, even the average citizen in the mid-21st century will have access to many material and psychological opportunities that even the wealthiest of today do not have.  Turn that frown upside down, for you are in for an exciting time as you ride the tsunami of prosperity that is about to immerse you.

This article is the inaugural entry into a new category here at The Futurist titled "Core Articles".  These are the articles which are designed to form the cornerstone of a comprehensive understanding of the future, and are suggested reading for anyone interested in the subject.  Additional articles will be upgraded to "Core" status as augmentations to them accumulate. 

Related :

These Are the Best of Times

The Stock Market is Exponentially Accelerating

The Psychology of Economic Progress

The Age of Democracy

The Winds of War, the Sands of Time

Are You Acceleration Aware?