The US government usually declares a recession only several months after it has begun. I find the Economic Cycle Research Institute to be a vastly more reliable source of leading indicators. While the ECRI has still not declared a recession as 'unavoidable', the economic data of the last week tells me that it is, indeed, not just unavoidable at this point, but that it actually began in December 2007. It is far too late for any 'stimulus' to prevent a recession, nor will the EU manage to avoid hardship of its own.
When I identified the pervasive nature of the Housing Bubble way back on April 13, 2006, I stated that housing may do poorly in inflation-adjusted terms even for the next 20 years (until 2026). Few were convinced then, now only somewhat more are. But supporting data for my prediction of the housing bubble being an event of generational duration is accumulating steadily.
Furthermore, when the US economy was not at any risk of recession on November 4, 2006, I wrote an extended piece to refute the broken clocks who always insist the US is on the brink of collapse. I declared that if recession does not happen by the end of 2007, then the housing bubble will no longer be a cause of recession, due to the housing correction being lengthy (hence digestible) rather than sharp. As the recession began in December 2007, we missed passing into the safety zone by just a hair.
As the question of recession is now in the past, the next question is when a recovery may take place. The drop in economic conditions between October and January was so steep, and the Federal Reserve's reduction in rates in January, while belated, was so large in magnitude, that GDP recovery may arrive as soon as Q4. But I am not making a prediction on recovery timing yet.