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jeffolie

I started the following thread at a different site on June 3rd:

--------------------

I have seen the fall of an empire (an evil empire) and a trading empire (Japan). At the peak of their prowse, the world trembled at the empires' sucesses. Those empires fell dramatically over about a 4 year decline.

I predict that the Chinese commercial sucess will fall, perhaps over a 4 year period also. I am not stating that the Chinese have peaked already. The seeds of their fall are built into the growth of their current sucess.

The Chinese are morally bankrupt, politically and economically. Communism is a broken model. Corruption is throughly engrained in its economy. Communist China treats the Chinese like dirt.

Even as the US will go through crisis, the US model is not completely broken. The US, IMHO is going to get worse, but the US will adapt as it has adapted to its 4 depressions and survived to come out strong. When Communist China falls, there is a good chance that it will take 50 years for it to politically and economically return to 1st world status.

China's fall and decline is coming. It certainly will not peak before the Olympics. There is a chance that the Olympics will be Communist China's only moment of sunshine in history.

stalker

"Have an economy that matches the US economy in size. If the US grows by 3% a year for the next 22 years, it will be $30 trillion in 2008 dollars by then...China, with an economy of $3.2 trillion in nominal (not PPP) terms, would have to grow at 11% a year for the next 22 years straight to achieve the same size, which is already faster than its current 9-10% rate, if even that can be sustained for so long (no country, let alone a large one, has grown at more than 8% over such a long period)."

This is a very flawed argument.

Why?

Because the growth rates you used are for PPP GDP growth.

According to the IMF, in 2000 China's (nominal) GDP was 1.2bn $ and in 2007 was 3.2bn $. This means China's nominal GDP has been growing at 15%.

Now considering that nominal GDP tends to converge to PPP GDP as countries get richer, and that China's potential for this is very big (it's real GDP is more than twice as big as its nominal, at around 7bn $), growth of 11% for the next 22 years (in nominal GDP) is entirely feasible.

As for 4) (universities), rankings are all subjective and tend to be weighted towards the Anglo-Saxon and particularly US (e.g. because one of the criterions used is, say, publications in the journal Nature). I've come across a study by one of those ranking organizations which showed that by knowledge and problem solving skills after graduation in scientific areas, the top three universities were Japanese, and the fourth was Moscow State. Fifth was MIT. And so on. In other words the only decisive advantage American universities have is that a) they have more money to spend on attracting "star" researchers / Nobel Prize winners and b) have more chances of being published in US academic journals.

For the other side of the education coin you might want to analyze, say, US scores in the international PISA tests.

BTW, I did a similar exercise on [ur=http://darussophile.blogspot.com/2008/01/core-article-towards-new-russian.html]future superpowers[/url].

My basic conclusion is that by 2030 China and the US will be evenly matched, with Russia as the third "swing" superpower.

stalker

One more thing, GK, how do you link to stuff without writing out the whole link on typepad? Thx.

jeffolie

I have been troubled by the rapid exploitation of the Chinese by its leaders for as long as I can remember. I watched a PBS program on 'illicit trade' last night. The Chinese leaders approach to sending out poison products was to kill one fiquirehead and eventually close a dozen plants whose products resulted in deaths. So, I decided to post a thread today on Communist China.

I noticed over the last one year that China's money supply and inflation were growing very rapidly. Their response was to raise bank reserves and rates modestly. The Chinese post inflation rate is far more reflective of real price increases than ours. The Vietnamese inflation rate is stated by them to be 25% and they are the leading buyers of gold. The Chinese leadership has negative real interest rates. They are trying to suppress their inflation by raising the value of the Yuan. That allows the Chinese to purchase more with their appreciating currency. Their exports will suffer and the combination of inflation and suffering exports will stress their corrupt system.

The Communist Chinese leadership's management of Tibet and the earthquake is sowing discontent. This may cause cracks in the popular support for the Communists.

There is a growing Islamic presence in China. About 10% of the Chinese are now Islamic.

The aftermath of the Olympics will be an economic letdown as government expenditures on the Olympics cease.

All of the above are going to be cracks that may develop in to significant aspects of the fall and decline of Communist China over a period of years.


China is a cheap, fake economy. It will fall apart as quickly as the crap they manufacture. Its political, legal and banking systems are all rubbish. It is none of the elements that made, say, the US the economic superpower that it was... and may be again.

I suspect that China will never get more than 40% of her people into the "haves" social classes. Maybe 10% rich and 30% middle class. Tops. The rest of the Chinese will probably get really really pissed off. The whole thing will derail.

--------------------

China faces inflation close to a 12-year high and cooling global demand abroad for the products it makes. The report shows that the People's Bank of China regards rising prices, a problem exacerbated by last month's earthquake, as the bigger threat facing the world's fastest-growing major economy. A stronger yuan would help by reducing the cost of imported goods. "We do expect an increase in the pace of appreciation of the yuan through the balance of the year,"

"Large-scale reconstruction of buildings, roads and other infrastructure in the earthquake zones may push fixed-asset investment growth higher," the bank said. "The impact on consumer prices may be short-term, but one should not ignore the impact on upstream producer prices as demand increases in the near future for cement, steel, copper, aluminum and other construction materials needed for reconstruction."

Controlling inflation will be "tough" this year because of higher costs for energy and labor, rising grain prices and the risk that rebounding loan growth will fuel demand.


http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-chinabank3-2008jun03,0,3083634.story

GK

stalker,

China has benefited from having its economy appear to grow even faster than it is due to an appreciation of the Yuan. These are one-time benefits, that do not occur each year.

Also, as prosperity is reached, the growth rate slows. There is no chance of China's economy growing at double-digit rates in the 2020s. Taiwan and South Korea would still be growing at that rate if it were possible (see the line chart).

Universities - Another measure is how many foreign students flock to a school. I don't see Americans (or third parties) going to Moscow State in the manner than we see Russians going to MIT.

Russia : I know you have a soft spot towards Russia, but Russia will not be a third 'swing' power by 2030. Russia's population in 2030 will be one third of America's, one third of Indonesia's, and one twelfth of India's. Russia's economy will be much smaller than India's. Read the link early in the article on how simply having many nuclear weapons does not make one a superpower. Russia is a powerful country, but I don't see how it could be any higher than #4 (if that) in 2030. Note the R&D pie chart that shows Russia to be conducting negligible R&D.

Typepad : You have to type "a href" code. Go to 'View' and 'Source' in your browser to see examples.

Saul Wall

I like the article and its premise has not deteriorated over time.

But I would actually see India as closer to being a superpower by your definition than China. Indian cinema and TV has a far greater global penetration than Chinese culture and while its economy and military is not as strong as China's, India has more influence on world affairs in many respects than does China due both to it's connections to the old English empire and the new American one. India has many speakers of the language of the real major superpower. It has the population, the economic promise, the expertise and the resources needed as well as the (relative) openness to the world needed to start playing in the superpower's junior league. China needs work on more aspects than India even if China is farther along on some measures.

But then, the opportunity for economic collaboration and mutual gains in experience and investment dollars could cause China and India to be less of an "either/or" and more of a "both/and" issue.

But America, having the top spot for some considerable time, is an excellent outcome for world events. We will all be better off for America's leadership and innovation in the world, even if many of us are loathed to admit it.

stalker

@GK,

1. On China/US: Look at it from another perspective. What you did in the article was compare nominal GDP's for the US and China, but used real GDP growth rates to see how fast China could catch up. This is apples and oranges.

The proper calculation would be to note that in 2007 China's PPP GDP was 7.0bn $, and so to catch up with the US at 30bn $ in 2030 it would have to grow at only 6.5% per annum.

That is perfectly doable. China's PPP per capita GDP is comparable to South Korea's in 1986 (IMF). From 1986 to 2006, South Korea grew at 8.0% in per capita terms. And South Korea suffered from many of China's problems - corruption, environmental degradation, etc.

2. China's nominal GDP growth will almost certainly be much quicker than its real GDP growth. Its currency is very undervalued and in any case nominal GDP tends to converge to real GDP as a country gets richer - potential in this area is very far from exhausted.

3. I never argued growth wouldn't slow as China will get richer. By the time it does slow, however, China will have long since surpassed the US in absolute size.

4. MIT has a "residual" reputational advantage, as with many other Western universities. (Incidentally third-parties do go to MSU, e.g. it's very popular with Indians. The reasons few Americans go is because they have a lot of good universities in the US where people speak English and have a similar culture).

5. Actually people who are observing demographic trends in Russia would dispute your forecasts (which depend on linear extrapolations of trends existing in the 1990's and don't allow for such things as rising life expectancy, etc). The rate of natural decrease fell to -0.17% in 2007 and will be less this year as the birth rate recovers and death rates fall (part of a continuing trend since 2005).

But actually Russia's population is pretty much irrelevant. It's key trump card is that it has a combination of advantages:

* will have plentiful energy resources in the interval between costly, diminishing hydrocarbons (from 2010) to plentiful clean solar/wind energy (2030-50), and has the military strength to defend them

* has an economy that will likely converge to an advanced status between 2020 and 2030

* will become a major transportation hub and will get more living space due to global warming, even as most of the rest of the world suffers

On R&D, Russia spends 1.2% of its GDP (as of 2004 - now its very likely higher, due to the recent big investments into nanotechnologies), which is quite poor compared to the US or Japan, but respectable compared with some rich countries (like Italy or Spain), and miles ahead of east-central Europe (typically 0.1-0.5%). So that's not a major barrier to economic convergence.

BTW, its GDP was about 2.1bn $ in 2007, so its spending on R&D was around 25bn $ in 2007 - not that negligible compared to UK (40bn $), Korea (38bn $), India (42bn $), etc.

6. I'm skeptical about India (as compared with China). It might be democratic but that won't buy you guns or butter. Its http://www.economist.co.uk/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11488749>predicted investment in infrastructure in the next ten years is less than a third of China's (similar population) and not much more than Russia's (1/7 of the population). While it lags China in economic development by perhaps ten years, in social development it lags by several decades (e.g. a large portion of the population is still illiterate). I can only conclude that India's power at least in the medium-term is going to continue declining relative to China's.

7. Perhaps I do have a soft spot towards Russia, but who do you think will get third place in 2030?

The only realistic candidate I can see is the European Union. But that would necessitate it taking up many more of the traditional attributes of a state (above all a united foreign and military policy), which I guess is possible but not that likely.

Al Fin

Interesting followup to an important article. In the past 2 years we have seen significant problems in the Chinese system beginning to be exposed.

Toxic exports of toys, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, toiletries, foods, water, and air, have made China the pollution/poison capital of the world.

Chinese building inspectors approve massive concrete structures built without the necessary steel reinforcement. Such buildings collapse and kill schoolchildren. Concrete towers for transmission lines collapse, knocking out power for tens of millions and more. Those are marks of a third world country.

Political prisoners used as human organ farms. Political dissidents disappearing for many years, or forever--as in Castro's Cuba, or Stalin's USSR.

China is becoming a world resource hog in its impossible drive to maintain its corrupt and Potemkin style of economic growth. But one cannot build a huge infrastructure on an unstable foundation.

China has risen quickly due to outside investment seeking rapid growth. As the growth curve for China flattens, the outside "growth" investment will go looking elsewhere.

GK

Saul Wall,

India does have a lot fewer structural problems than China, but at the moment is so far behind, that it won't recover lost ground by 2030. Even at current growth rates, it would take 15 years for India to get to where China is today, economically.

Al Fin,

Absolutely. There are only so many cracks that can be papered over. The Olympics will have one embarassment after another for China. As growth slows down to just 6-7% due to the law of large numbers, China's other problems will become more visible.

stalker,

You would be hard pressed to find any non-Russian who thinks Russia will be the #3 superpower in 2030. Even the USSR was not really a full superpower, as was later revealed.

Regarding the advantages of Russia you state :

Russia has a lot of natural resources, but that only goes so far. Canada, Brazil, Africa, and the Persian Gulf also have hydrocarbons, and the latter three much higher solar intensity than Russia.

Population : The decline may have slowed due to greater Islamic birth rates, but Russia's population in 2030 will still be outside the top-10.

Living space : Even the US has very low population density relative to most countries, so there will not be a shortage of living space in the US, Canada, Australia, etc.

Major transportation hub : The only real opportunity is the trans-Siberian railway to ship goods from China to Europe. This is minor, and is not a major revenue stream. Panama did not become super-rich due to the Panama Canal.

India : Illiteracy is concentrated among older people. About 90% of children under age 10 are now in school. Even if 20% are still illiterate in 2030, that is still 80% that are literate, and 80% of 1.4 Billion is a lot. Don't forget the Indian diaspora of 30 million, which has a lot of wealth.

India produces 3 million college graduates a year, soon to rise to 5 million. It still won't be #2 in 2030, but will be #3.

jipi

So many flaws in your article, selecting the criterias that proves your point, backed by (sometimes questionable) selective data.

Plus, at least 8 out of your 10 points are directly linked to the first: money.

One major economic crisis in 20 years and here goes the rest. Economy already in shaky grounds I might add. Granted, if it happens now, most of the western world will collapse with it. But Europe and Asia are more and more turning the back on US investment.

I am not saying that the US are doomed, but the America #1 speech is long gone. Your historic industry is crumbling (cars,metal,...etc), the whole world is fleeing American influence like pest, the worst health care of the western world, the worst school education (pre-univ) and you are responsible for half of the crisis worldwide (pollution, wars,...etc).

I am not anti-american at all, but its about time to stop speech like this, Americans need to wake-up, your empire is declining...fast.

For me, it is really unlikely that the US will be the only superpower by 2030. Not on this path...

...Unless they liberate the shit out of the world, like they did in Irak.

stalker

"You would be hard pressed to find any non-Russian who thinks Russia will be the #3 superpower in 2030."

http://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/bst/de/media/xcms_bst_dms_23193_23194_2.pdf>Not really. In fact 37% of the global community (and 59% of Russians) think Russia will be a "world power" in 2020, which is third after the US (61%) and China (57%). India is substantially lower, and both EU and Japan are ahead.

* Africa and Persian Gulf are politically fractured, don't have a significant industrial base and cannot be said to have sovereign foreign policies (the big exception, Iran, is contained). Canada and Brazil are far away from Eurasia and of little importance geopolitically.

* Actually about 75% of Muslims in Russia have a demographic profile similar to that of ethnic Russians. The rest (southern Muslim ethnic groups) have birth rates that are rapidly declining as those regions undergo a demographic transition.

Secondly, as a "Singularitarian", I find your emphasis on population hard to understand. With the growth of nanotechnologies and AI it is going to become increasingly irrelevant.

* There will however be shortages of living space in China, India, South-East Asia, Egypt, etc, as sea levels rise. If its significant, parts of Europe (Netherlands) and the US (Florida, Louisiana) are also going to be hit. The only significant part of Russia that is at any risk is St.-Petersburg. It also won't help if the breadbasket http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overviewgreatplains.htm>Great Plains become desertified.

* Transportation: not only the railway. The Arctic is melting. The North-East passage if shorter from Yokohama to Rotterdam by 4000km than by the Malacca-Suez route (and less prone to bottlenecks / security risks). It will also open up big new hydrocarbons deposits off the Siberian shelf at the same time as the rest of the world is suffering from peak oil.

* India - that may be but even on universities its tertiary enrolment rate is at 11% (World Bank), which is very far from the US/Europe (50-80%) and even China (21%). As for the diaspora, so what? The Chinese, the Armenians, the Irish, they all also have big diasporas. The key factor is the level of development of people in the homeland.

(I am not saying India has no potential to be a superpower, btw - it does - but it won't do it in the medium term. That would have to wait until at least 2050).

GK

Jipi,

Your comment actually PROVES points 9) and 10) of my article.

You obsess over Iraq (where America and Britain are doing good things), yet have no problem with atrocities in Darfur, Burma, Zimbabwe, Tibet, North Korea, etc. Why? Because you are obsessed with seeing evil only in America, which itself is the byproduct of the US being so dominant as to invite irrational envy.

So you have proved points 9) and 10) quite well.

Your historic industry is crumbling (cars,metal,...etc)

The US dominates in new industries, like Internet and Biotech. Read the article.

the whole world is fleeing American influence like pest,

Wrong. France, Germany, and Italy all elected pro-US leaders. Even developed countries have many people immigrating to the US (see the map in the article).

the worst health care of the western world

Wrong. Canadians come to the US for appointments, because it takes 3 months to get on in the US. In France, 15,000 died from a heat wave in 2003 due to poor health care response.

and you are responsible for half of the crisis worldwide (pollution, wars,...etc).

Wrong again. China emits more pollution than America (see article). America has liberated more people from tyranny than all other countries combined.

So much ignorance in one post. Again, your blind gullibility to anti-US propaganda which is already refuted in the article merely PROVES points 9) and 10) of the article.

GK

stalker,

1) Russia is a 'world power' even today. So are Britain, France, Germany, Japan, and India. But a 'world power' is not a superpower. Plus, 2020 vs. 2030 is a significant difference.

2) Muslim birth rates may be declining in Russia, but are still much higher than ethnic Russians, and will be that way for a long time. 2.5 for Chechens, Tajiks, or Turkmen vs. 1.5 for Russians is a huge gap.

3) Secondly, as a "Singularitarian", I find your emphasis on population hard to understand.

Transhumanism happens well after 2030. We are talking about 2030. At any rate, if population is irrelevant, China's strongest point on becoming a superpower diminishes, ensuring America's #1 spot.

4) Population : A shortage of living space in China and India leads them to move to the US, Canada, and Australia. In the US, Florida, etc. still have very low population densities relative to Europe. Texas alone could accomodate 100 million people and still be less dense than New Jersey or the UK.

In fact, depopulation of Siberia and Yakutsk/Kamchatka make them vulnerable to Chinese annexation (which I don't want to happen any more than you do).

5) It will also open up big new hydrocarbons deposits off the Siberian shelf at the same time as the rest of the world is suffering from peak oil.

The same goes for Canadian and American Arctic zones.

The fact remains, Russia's economy will be no larger than #7 or #8 by 2030. Your own point about PPP GDP converging to nominal in fact would mean India would shoot ahead of Russia in economic size.

Population does matter too. In 2030 :

India : 1,500m
Pakistan : 230m
Bangladesh : 200m
Russia : 140m.

So Russia would have to have a per capita GDP 10X that of India to have an economy the same size. Unlikely.

I like Russians (particularly the women) a lot. But being one of 8-10 world powers (which both India and Russia already are) vs. being a Superpower (which neither will be by 2030) are two very different things.

Right now, Russia is about 2.5% of nominal world GDP. You tell me : In 2030, what percent of nominal world GDP will it be?

I think a country has to be at least 15%, ideally 20% of nominal world GDP to seriously entertain calling itself a superpower.

Michael

China's rise has been been fueled by creating a manufacturing based export economy. What happens to China's growth when transportation costs exceed labor? What happens to China's economy when people realize it is cheaper to manufacture items in the depressed prairie states along established transportation hubs as opposed to across the Pacific?

jeffolie

When will the docile Chinese rise up and modify their Communist dictatorship?

The pollution is a disaster, the Communists are corrupt and the only truth in China is the Communists tells lies until a disaster forces out the truth into the light.

The history of other Communist governments is that they last for many decades, but none has lasted 100 years and none will. China will fall from its own internal rot. It will not be the next superpower.

anon

GK, I followed your original article up to this one, and you did not disappoint! Very little has changed, if any, since the original article. I think anti americanism has continued its upward trend, however, I think that speaks absolute volumes as to how dominant the US really is.

I think one thing that is important to remember, is how important a strong dollar is. I do agree that a weak dollar has its benefits, but it also has its disadvantages. I am sure I do not need to list such disadvantages, as we all should be aware of such.

I also worry about the eco-nazis that I see in the US, where our economy could be dragged down, thanks to liberals who seem to be further left than I care to remember. If we hamper our own economic growth by giving into the environmental nuts, whilst china does not, it is all to Chinas benefit.

jeffolie

Shanghai Market: Cliff Diving

The Shanghai Composite Index is off over 5% tonight to 3140.

From MarketWatch: China, Hong Kong drop in reaction to new bank rule

Asian markets traded broadly lower Tuesday, led down by Shanghai and Hong Kong, where banking and property shares fronted declines as investors fretted about the impact of the latest round of anti-inflationary measures announced over the weekend.
And also from MarketWatch: China takes aim at inflation, speculative fund flows
The People's Bank of China said over the weekend that it would require banks must put aside 17% of deposits as reserves, effective June 15. A second hike to 17.5% will go into effect June 25, for a total rise of 100 basis points above the current requirement of 16.5%.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/06/shanghai-market-cliff-diving.html

The Communist Chinese Shanghai market is DOWN about 50% in less than 1 year.

jeffolie

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- China hiked banks' reserve requirement ratios for the fifth time this year, taking aim at inflation and at the flows of speculative funds pouring into the country.
The People's Bank of China said over the weekend that it would require banks must put aside 17% of deposits as reserves, effective June 15. A second hike to 17.5% will go into effect June 25, for a total rise of 100 basis points above the current requirement of 16.5%

Inflation has continued to soar.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/china-hikes-banks-reserve-requirement/story.aspx?guid=%7BBEDDBCDF%2DFE47%2D40AB%2D94AB%2DAD0B2B981055%7D

The fall and declina of Communist China is coming.

GK

Wow. We have people who ignorantly say America has *already* fallen from superpower status, not even that it would happen by 2030.

On the other hand, we have jeffolie saying that the decline and fall of China is coming.

Two polar opposites. My own position, of course, is that China will progress, have a lot of domestic unrest but transition to democracy, but will still be only the #2 in 2030, due to the higher rungs of the ladder being much harder to scale.

jeffolie

GK

I want China to transition to Democracy. To do that the Chinese Communist government must fall. Just as when the USSR fell, the transition will lead to a massive decline and chaos for an unpredictable period.

GK

jeffolie,

I think it will be a bit easier for China than for the USSR, because China already has a private sector and multi-national corporations operating there. Capitalism has already been adopted. Thus, they only have to transition to democracy, while the USSR had to transition to capitalism + democracy, which was twice as hard.

jeffolie

Decelerating China

After a year of record profit expansion in 2007, Chinese companies across most sectors are seeing the first signs of decelerating profit growth,...

The proportion of lossmaking companies doubled from last year to 15.4 per cent.

China's centrally administered state-owned enterprises reported the first quarterly profit decline since 2003 - when the state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission was set up to reform and supervise the public sector. This was mainly due to price controls, which led to loss in the oil refining and power generation industries.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080609/bs_ft/fto060920081051223923;_ylt=AivnuyIem8JuiN5jdHxSqnKs0NUE

There are so many state owned enterprises and state owner financial institutions which are corrupt and irresponsible, that eliminating these state owned enterprises and banks will take a financial revolution.

anon

The problem I see with china becoming a democracy, is the eventual break up of the Han Chinese empire. I think china becoming a democracy will see china split up into several different nations.

jeffolie

China's producer-price index climbs to 8.2% in May

By Chris Oliver

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China's producer-price index climbed in May from a year earlier at its fastest pace in three years, as industry grappled with higher prices for oil, coal and steal. The producer-price index climbed 8.2% in May, after rising 8.1% in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. "The rise in the PPI threatens to feed through into sustained higher levels of CPI, even as food prices, the main contributor to the current bout of inflation, stabilize," said Jing Ulrich, chairman of China Equities at JPMorgan Securities in Hong Kong. Coal, which accounts for 70% of China's energy consumption, has doubled in price since the beginning of the year

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/chinas-producer-price-index-climbs-82/story.aspx?guid=%7B13D98767%2DCB39%2D4972%2D8080%2D5BDD0AF844BE%7D

No one knows how bad the inflation really is in the lying, corrupt Communist China.

jacob

why would the technological singularity make the point moot?

jeffolie

You can see the contempt and frustration in the hundred thousand+ parents of the dead school children from the earthquake. Their anger regarding the shoddy schools construction has spread to the entire country. This is but one crack in the foundation of the corrupt, lying Communist government.

-----------------------------------------------


Talk about fuel inefficiency and pollution. China a year ago exceeded the US in its emissions of CO2 ( http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/jun/19/china.usnews ) . As this corrupt government develops into a first world economy, their emissions are horrific and expanding. This must be shortening their life spans via related illnesses.

Pollution has made cancer China’s leading cause of death, the Ministry of Health ( http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/26/world/asia/26china.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin ) .

------------------------------------


The catch is that China has become not just the world's manufacturer but its despoiler, on a scale as monumental as its economic expansion. A fourth of the country is now desert. More than three-fourths of its forests have disappeared. Each year, uncontrollable underground fires, sometimes triggered by lightning or mining accidents, consume 200 million tons of coal, contributing massively to global warming. A miasma of lead, mercury, sulfur dioxide, and other elements of coal-burning and car exhaust hovers over most Chinese cities.

Meanwhile, roughly 70 percent of the world's discarded computers and electronic equipment ends up in China, where it is scavenged for usable parts and then abandoned, polluting soil and groundwater with toxic metals. If unchecked, such devastation will not just put an abrupt end to China's economic growth, but, in concert with other environmentally heedless nations (in particular, the US, India, and Brazil), will cause mortal havoc in societies and ecosystems throughout the world.

The fallout

The process is already under way. Acid rain caused by China's sulfur-dioxide emissions severely damages forests and watersheds in Korea and Japan and impairs air quality in the US. Every major river system flowing out of China is threatened with one sort of cataclysm or another. The surge in untreated waste and agricultural runoff pouring into the Yellow and China Seas has caused frequent fish die-offs, and overfishing is endangering many ocean species.

The growing Chinese taste for furs and exotic foods and pets is devastating neighboring countries' populations of everything from gazelles to wolves, and turtles to parrots, while its appetite for shark fin soup is causing drastic declines in shark populations throughout the oceans http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0319/p09s01-coop.html .

--------------------------

The Chinese population is getting older before it gets rich. Despite the overall size of its population, the imbalance between wage earners and the aged and young populations will force Beijing to make economic tradeoffs in the years head.

jeffolie

I changed my position on deflation more than a year ago when I predicted Stagflation. I came out with the following:

End of Financial World

2005 was the peak in Real Estate prices and the creation of mortgages. My reasoning is something like this: it will take until 2009-10 for the housing bubble to bottom; then it will take another year or so for the complex financial instruments based on the failing real estate prices to sort itself out and onto the lying, corrupt banks balance sheets; the Democrats will be creating much fiscal and Fed stimulation to offset the cratering in real estate; after 2009-10 without declining, deflating housing prices, then inflation will take off; the Fed will be slow to fight inflation and eventually raise rates while inflation soars; by 2012 rates will be high enough to choke the economy and start disinflation; Dec 21, 2012 is the day the Mayans forcasted would be the end of the world as we know it.

I believe this is a likely scenario but I am not sure of the timing.

In my humble opinion, the US system is the most adaptable in the world. The US has survived 4 depressions and will overcome eventually what I am predicting. The Chinese system looks much more brittle and will take much longer to adapt.

Rob

Stalker, Russia, as it was the former Soviet Union, was a "superpower" by the virtue of having less than 10,000 nuclear weapons, a massive but crumbling military force and a land mass that reach 11 time zones. It's all the perception of size and sheer strength the former Soviet Union routinely propagandized through the decades, in an apparently foolish effort to convince the world they were a superpower to be reckoned. What they didn't tell you was that its own economy was failing them badly and its leadership spending more times lavishing at dachas with entertainment than administering a gigantic country with democratic responsibilities. The Soviet Union was a failed state masquerading as a superpower. I'm concerned about today's Russia: its present leadership is charting a dangerous step back to old-style Soviet politics while going forward with its limited and consolidated capitalist system under the Kremlin's unseen hands. On the surface, it would look great and prosperous to the world's eyes but underneath, troubles and problems would fester but no one wanted to do anything about them, fearing authoritarian backlashes from the Kremlin.

The United States will exceed them all, even China by 2030 or even by 2100. Why? Because it's the most innovative, highly adaptable and competitive country in the world, supported by the diversity and creativity of peoples who came from all over the world through generations by migration.

There will still be the United States of America by 2176 AD, spearheading a new era of space colonization of the Solar System and beyond as Earth is reeling from a new ice age.

jeffolie

Obama will lead America into The Crisis in the Fall of 2009 and into the end of the financial world as we know it in 2012.

jeffolie

The Crisis in the Summer of 2008

The current crisis is smothered in the media by lying, corrupt governments worldwide issuing understated economic statistics.

The obvious features of this Crisis include housing, financials, food, fuel, pollution.

Housing is in the aftermath of the collapsing housing bubble here and in Europe. Most of Europe has declining prices with special problems in overbuilt Spain. Our flood of malinvestment is spilling into the REO sector and consequentially into the complex financial instruments based on housing. Housing prices will continue to decline all year as forced liquidations drive down the market.

Financials slowing reveal themselves as the devistated broken business models. The financials no longer gather revenue by acting as salesmen collecting commissions on the products they pawn of on foreign investors and pension or hedge funds. No sales means no commissions. Financials revenues are drying up and the banks are in freefall along with the brokers.

Food and fuel along with commodities are being priced at a level that make the low income people forgo other purchases creating an even lower standard of living for the less fortunate. The media shows on a daily basis mass protests and even some riots in widespread countries across the world.

Pollution now in China results in cancer which leads as their number one cause of death. China leads the world now in the production of carbon dioxide, CO2. The governments of China, India and Russia lie and deceive with their numbers about pollution but their peoples' suffering cannot be denied.

In summary, The Crisis in The Summer of 2008 has unfolded as I predicted a year ago.

Padre Steve

This was a fantastic post! I found it to be very hopeful!

jeffolie

JUYUAN, China - A photograph hinting at shoddy school construction was pulled from an exhibition about last month's devastating earthquake, an apparent indication of rising government sensitivity over an issue that has already prompted angry protests from parents of children killed.

The photo showed a hand clutching a twisted piece of steel rebar that looked no thicker than a pencil, taken from the ruins of the middle school in the town of Juyuan that was one of 40 that collapsed in the May 12 quake.

School collapses have become one of the most charged issues in the quake recovery process, and one that local communist leaders seem anxious to suppress.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080615/ap_on_re_as/china_earthquake;_ylt=AvMhg60dXl9FSGZdDryRxt.s0NUE

Lying, corrupt Communist Chinese are suppressing the truth about their earthquake.

jeffolie

The Coming Slowdown in China?

by CalculatedRisk

From Bloomberg: Yuan Extends Gains to 20% Since End of Peg Before Paulson Talks

The yuan extended gains to 20 percent since China ended a fixed exchange rate to the dollar in July 2005 ... The currency climbed for a fifth day, reaching 6.8909 per dollar. The yuan's advance since the peg was scrapped compares with a 29 percent gain for the euro against the dollar, 13.2 percent for the British pound and 4.7 percent for the Japanese yen.

From Professor Krugman: The world gets bigger

Many people have noticed that higher fuel prices are putting the brakes on globalization: if it costs more to ship stuff, there will be less shipping.

How big is this effect? ...

[A] very back-of-the envelope calculation using CIBC estimates of the fuel cost effect gives me a 17 percent contraction in trade if oil prices stay at current levels for a long time.

And from the NY Times: Labor Costs Rise, and Manufacturers Look Beyond China

China remains the most popular destination for foreign industrial investment in the world, attracting almost $83 billion last year. But ... [there are a] long list of concerns about China ... inflation, shortages of workers and energy, a strengthening currency, changing government policies, even the possibility of civil unrest someday. But most important, wages in China are rising close to 25 percent a year in many industries, in dollar terms, and China is no longer such a bargain.

Just some food for thought ...

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/06/coming-slowdown-in-china.html

jeffolie

The long list of worries about China includes inflation, rapidly rising labor costs, shortages of workers and energy, a strengthening currency, dwindling tax breaks for foreign investors and the possibility of civil unrest. With wages in China now rising close to 25 percent a year in dollar terms in many industries, the vaunted "China price" for a growing list of goods, particularly low-tech products, is no longer such a bargain.

In coastal Chinese provinces with ready access to ports for exports, even unskilled workers now earn $120 a month for a 40-hour workweek, and often considerably more. Factory workers in Vietnam still earn as little as $50 a month for a 48-hour workweek that includes a full day on Saturdays.

Over the past few years, some companies have sought relief from high wages in coastal provinces of China by moving inland. But companies like Ever-Glory are now doing the same arithmetic and finding it cheaper to move to other countries than to head inland, partly because of national policy changes in China, like the labor regulations.

China is also rapidly phasing out its practice of charging lower corporate tax rates for foreign-owned companies. By contrast, Vietnam still offers foreign investors a corporate tax rate of zero for the first four years, and half the usual rate of 10 percent for the next four years.

To be sure, China still attracts a large and growing torrent of foreign direct investment. It reached $82.66 billion last year according to China's Commerce Ministry, which mainly includes factories in its figures while excluding most real estate and service-sector investments.

Foreign direct investment in China has grown by a third over the past three years. By contrast, foreign direct investment has more than doubled in this period in the Philippines, quintupled in India and soared more than eightfold in Vietnam.

A popular saying among Western investors these days is that Vietnam is the next China. Cambodia, with even lower wages attracting garment manufacturers, is called the next Vietnam.

Yet, like China, Vietnam does not offer complete tranquility. Workers are becoming more vocal and staging more strikes, despite a government ban on independent unions.

Nearly 20,000 workers walked out this spring at a Nike shoe factory run by a Taiwanese contractor. The workers went back to work only when given a 10 percent raise, to $55 a month, and a larger meal subsidy.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/17/business/inflate.php

China losing the war of cheapest labor costs

jeffolie

The big news of late was China putting through an increase of 16% for gasoline and a 18% jump in diesel. The analysis of this should be straightforward, inflation masked by government subsidies will now come even more to the surface. The effects should be several fold. First will be a significant Mad Max shutdown of a significant portion of China’s already profitless or money losing “businesses”. Secondly it puts even more pressure on the Yuan float which has been loosening even before this announcement. Thirdly, all these factors will result in less product and higher prices for the US to import. And as the following prices paid and received charts clearly suggest it’s already a crisis (present tense). Fed heads should take note of the words “current prices paid”, not “will be paid”.

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=1736#more-1736

China Death Watch

jeffolie

Sometimes called "market Stalinism," it is a potent hybrid of the most powerful political tools of authoritarian communism — central planning, merciless repression, constant surveillance — harnessed to advance the goals of global capitalism.

Over the past two years, some 200,000 surveillance cameras have been installed throughout the city. Many are in public spaces, disguised as lampposts. The closed-circuit TV cameras will soon be connected to a single, nationwide network, an all-seeing system that will be capable of tracking and identifying anyone who comes within its range — a project driven in part by U.S. technology and investment. Over the next three years, Chinese security executives predict they will install as many as 2 million CCTVs in Shenzhen, which would make it the most watched city in the world. (Security-crazy London boasts only half a million surveillance cameras.)

The security cameras are just one part of a much broader high-tech surveillance and censorship program known in China as "Golden Shield." "The big picture," Zhang tells me in his office at the factory, "is integration." That means linking cameras with other forms of surveillance: the Internet, phones, facial-recognition software and GPS monitoring. This is how this Golden Shield will work: Chinese citizens will be watched around the clock through networked CCTV cameras and remote monitoring of computers. They will be listened to on their phone calls, monitored by digital voice-recognition technologies. Their Internet access will be aggressively limited through the country's notorious system of online controls known as the "Great Firewall." Their movements will be tracked through national ID cards with scannable computer chips and photos that are instantly uploaded to police databases and linked to their holder's personal data. This is the most important element of all: linking all these tools together in a massive, searchable database of names, photos, residency information, work history and biometric data. When Golden Shield is finished, there will be a photo in those databases for every person in China: 1.3 billion faces.

At the same time, the success of China's ravenous development creates its own challenges. Every rural village that is successfully razed to make way for a new project creates more displaced people who join the ranks of the roughly 130 million migrants roaming the country looking for work. By 2025, it is projected that this "floating" population will swell to more than 350 million. Many will end up in cities like Shenzhen, which is already home to 7 million migrant laborers.

But while China's cities need these displaced laborers to work in factories and on construction sites, they are unwilling to offer them the same benefits as permanent residents: highly subsidized education and health care, as well as other public services. While migrants can live for decades in big cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou, their residency remains fixed to the rural community where they were born, a fact encoded on their national ID cards.

The answer is Golden Shield. When Tibet erupted in protests recently, the surveillance system was thrown into its first live test, with every supposedly liberating tool of the Information Age — cellphones, satellite television, the Internet — transformed into a method of repression and control. As soon as the protests gathered steam, China reinforced its Great Firewall, blocking its citizens from accessing dozens of foreign news outlets. In some parts of Tibet, Internet access was shut down altogether. Many people trying to phone friends and family found that their calls were blocked, and cellphones in Lhasa were blitzed with text messages from the police: "Severely battle any creation or any spreading of rumors that would upset or frighten people or cause social disorder or illegal criminal behavior that could damage social stability." The end result is that when the games begin, much of the Tibetan movement will be safely behind bars — along with scores of Chinese journalists, bloggers and human-rights defenders who have also been trapped in the government's high-tech web.

Police State 2.0 might not look good from the outside, but on the inside, it appears to have passed its first major test.

The crackdown in Tibet has set off a wave of righteous rallies and boycott calls. But it sidesteps the uncomfortable fact that much of China's powerful surveillance state is already being built with U.S. and European technology. Yahoo had briefly put up the mug shots of the "most wanted" Tibetan protesters on their Chinese news portals. It's a story that glosses over the much larger scandal of what is actually taking place: Western investors stampeding into the country, possibly in violation of the law, with the sole purpose of helping the Communist Party spend billions of dollars building Police State 2.0. This isn't an unfortunate cost of doing business in China: It's the goal of doing business in China. "Come help us spy!" the Chinese government has said to the world. And the world's leading technology companies are eagerly answering the call.

"We're at the start of a massive boom in Chinese security spending," according to Graham Summers, a market analyst who publishes an investor newsletter in Baltimore. "And just as we need to be aware of how to profit from the growth in China's commodity consumption, we need to be aware of companies that will profit from 'security consumption.' . . . There's big money to be made."

While U.S. companies are eager to break into China's rapidly expanding market, every Chinese security firm I come across in the Pearl River Delta is hatching some kind of plan to break into the U.S. market.

The paper he produced was called "China's Golden Shield: Corporations and the Development of Surveillance Technology in the People's Republic of China." It exposed how big-name tech companies like Nortel and Cisco were helping the Chinese government to construct "a gigantic online database with an all-encompassing surveillance network — incorporating speech and face recognition, closed-circuit television, smart cards, credit records and Internet surveillance technologies."

Walton's paper did have an impact, but not the one he had hoped. The revelation that China was constructing a gigantic digital database capable of watching its citizens on the streets and online, listening to their phone calls and tracking their consumer purchases sparked neither shock nor outrage. Instead, Walton says, the paper was "mined for ideas" by the U.S. government, as well as by private companies hoping to grab a piece of the suddenly booming market in spy tools. For Walton, the most chilling moment came when the Defense Department tried to launch a system called Total Information Awareness to build what it called a "virtual, centralized grand database" that would create constantly updated electronic dossiers on every citizen, drawing on banking, credit-card, library and phone records, as well as footage from surveillance cameras. "It was clearly similar to what we were condemning China for," Walton says.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/20797485/chinas_allseeing_eye

China going to hell and bringing it to America

superpower

GK;

Wrong. The US dominates in new industries, like Internet.

US does not dominate internet at all. Currently, China has more internet users than US and its internet technology is one generation ahead of US.

France, Germany, and Italy all elected pro-US leaders.
It would be interesting to see how supportive the France, Germany, and Italy will be when the majority of US is Latino.

True. US has the worst health care system.
Americans go to Cuba to seek medical treatments. Senior Americans move to mexico because they could no longer afford the care offered at home.


likwidshoe

US does not dominate internet at all.

It dominates the sixteen of the top twenty DNS servers. Does that count?

...its internet technology is one generation ahead of US.

How?

True. US has the worst health care system.
Americans go to Cuba to seek medical treatments.

That's a laugh. The reality is that the rest of the world comes to the US to get top notch medical care. Most of the new drugs are developed in the United States. Waiting times for simple procedures are next to nonexistent, as opposed to the months long waits in socialist countries.

Senior Americans move to mexico because they could no longer afford the care offered at home.

Where do you get this stuff?

superpower

"US has the best medical technology and care."
That's true. But America is ranked something like 39th of all countries in the world in providing health care to its citizens, and number one in war spending.

"Waiting times for simple procedures are next to nonexistent, as opposed to the months long waits in socialist countries."
That's true, if you happen to be rich.

Where do you get this stuff?
Ask Lou Dobbs.


GK

superpower,

Google, Yahoo, eBay, Cisco, Microsoft, Sun, etc. are the companies that dominate Internet hardware and software. They are all US companies. There is no non-US company, let alone a Chinese company, it this bracket.

China still has fewer Broadband lines than the US, despite the population being 4.5 times larger.

It would be interesting to see how supportive the France, Germany, and Italy will be when the majority of US is Latino.

So, according to you :
a) France/Germany/Italy are racist/anti-Latino.
b) Latinos cannot assimilate.

You have made two bigotted statements in one sentence.

Lastly, the US dominates medical technology. Canadians come to the US in droves when their state-run system means a 3-month waiting list for appointments. In France in 2003, 15,000 died from a mere heat wave, indicated how fragile their system is.

...and number one in war spending.

Yes, which is one of the 10 reasons the US is a superpower.

None of your points are intelligent or well-considered, they are merely the tired, memorized lines of a non-thinker.

Global inflation fears deepened as Chinese steelmakers agreed to a record increase in annual iron ore prices in a move likely to boost the cost of cars, machinery, and other products.

Chinese millers agreed to pay Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto up to 96.5 per cent more for their ore supplies this year, the largest-ever annual increase and well above the 9.5 per cent increase paid last year.

The rise suggests that demand for commodities from emerging economies remains strong, in spite of the US slowdown, fuelling fears that global inflation will continue to rise. The rise -- an average 85 per cent -- surpasses the record increase of 71.5 per cent agreed in 2005, when the commodities  boom gathered pace.

"Commodity-led inflation risks appear to be growing," said Tobias Levkovich, Citi chief strategist.

http://www.gata.org/node/6388

China to pay 96% more for ore, inflation anyone?

Scott

The United States is no longer a superpower and this is why:

Liberals and conservatives habitually speak of the United States as a superpower. Neocons like Norman Podhoretz advise that our "only option" with Iran is "to go to war" (The Week, June 8, p.6) – as though we can. A New York Times commentary on Iraq blithely states that, no matter the outcome, "the United States would still be the sole world power" (Jan. 14, p.WK1) – as though we are. Bush planners aim at establishing a "permanent" U.S. military presence in Iraq (The Christian Science Monitor, June 12, p.1) – as though we could. And presidential candidates of both parties speak as though we can accomplish anything if we're well-led. Well, as Roky Erickson once said, "You can believe that story if you want to."

Consider, first, global economics, then China, then the state of our military.

The Economist (Feb. 14, p.18): "Typically in the past, when America's economy has weakened, the rest of the world soon flagged. But this time ... the rest of the world has speeded up even as the American engine has lost steam. ... [Gross national product] per person is now growing faster in the euro area than it is in America. Domestic demand is also booming in emerging economies in Asia, the Middle East, and Russia [and] most of China's growth comes not from exports but from domestic demand." Since World War II, and until recently, American consumption has been the world's primary economic force – which is why the world had no choice but to tolerate our misadventures. Now many nations are booming on their own, in cooperation with one another. The U.S. is still important, but it's not necessary.

The Economist (April 14, p.12), under the headline "Come in number one, your time is up": "America used to be the world's biggest exporter. First it was pushed aside by Germany, and now it has been outclassed by China. ... In global finance, too, America and the dollar are being shoved off their pedestal. The dollar is still preferred as a reserve currency, but it is no longer the favourite form of cash for households and firms. There are now more euro[s] ... in circulation than there are dollars [my italics]. In the international bond market, the euro has displaced the dollar as the main currency. ... Wall Street's stockmarket capitalisation has now been eclipsed by Europe [combined with Russia]." Still important, but not necessary. Still important, but now the world has many other choices. In light of these facts, to think of the U.S. as "the sole world power" is ludicrous – as it is ludicrous to imagine that in this brave new world we will be granted the authority, and accorded the deference, to which we've been accustomed for 60 years. The leading nations haven't yet decided what to do with their new power. They're not used to it. But they'll get used to it, and they will use it – how, at this point, is anyone's guess. But the more delusional we remain about our status, the harder the shock will be when they figure out how.

It's been widely reported that we are, by far, the world's biggest debtor nation. The Week (June 8, p.20): "Including unfunded promises made for Medicare, Social Security, and federal retirement programs, U.S. taxpayers have a total debt of $59 trillion. That's $516,000 for every U.S. household." Obviously, we're not paying that debt anytime soon, especially when "the nation's average personal savings rate fell to negative 1% in 2006, meaning that Americans spent more than they earned" (The Week, Feb. 16, p.16). Also widely reported: America needs foreign investment and loans to function. Foreigners "hold a record 52%" of U.S. government debt, "up from 25% in 1995" (The Week, Dec. 15, 2006, p.44). How can you call America a superpower when we can't meet our expenses without the goodwill of our rivals?

Which brings us to China, our primary banker. The New York Times (April 14, p.C3): "Last year, when Treasury debt increased by $184 billion, almost half of that amount ... was provided by lenders in China. ... China [is] the largest source of funding for the United States government's deficits." The article reports that our Federal Reserve bought 20% of "our newly issued bonds" and that "only 4% of the [total] money came from American investors and institutions" (my italics). Which totals only 24% coming from American sources. Without the present level of foreign investment, especially Chinese investment, America would be in very bad straits. Uh oh ... the Chinese show signs of changing their ways. "Their fastest growth these days lies in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, South America, and elsewhere in Asia – in other words, practically anywhere other than the United States" (The New York Times, April 18, p.C1). One result is that China has created a new "agency to invest its immense reserves in foreign currency. ... Some analysts say the formation of the new agency means China is moving away from heavy reliance on investing in United States dollars through Treasury securities [The New York Times, March 10, p.C3]." We're still important, but not nearly as necessary. With even a small change in its investment policy, China has the power to dampen America's economy.

Now consider the state of America's military. Colin Powell, quoted in Time (April 16, p.30): "The active Army is about broken." The Washington Post (March 19, p.1): "Senior U.S. military and government officials acknowledge ... that it will take years for the Army and Marine Corps to recover from what some officials privately have called a 'death spiral,' in which the ever more rapid pace of war-zone rotations has consumed 40% of their total gear, wearied troops, and left no time to train. ... The U.S. military now lacks a large strategic reserve of ground troops ready to respond quickly and decisively to potential foreign crises. ... The vast majority [of Army units in the United States] are rated 'not ready.'" The Post article reports the reactions of several congressmen to a classified military briefing. Rep. Solomon P. Ortiz, D-Texas: "I have seen the classified-only reports. And based on those reports, I believe that we as a nation are at risk of major failure, should our Army be called to deploy to an emerging threat." Rep. Walter B. Jones, R-N.C.: "This nation has got to replenish and fix what is soon going to be broken." Finally, the Post goes on: "Under current ... plans, it will take two to three years after the Iraq war ends [my italics] ... to restore ... equipment levels. It will take five years and at least $75 billion for the Army to increase its active-duty ranks [as planned] up to 547,000 soldiers."

That's for the future. Right now the military is hurting at home as well as on the battlefield. "The backlog of [veterans'] disability claims stands at more than 405,000, with cases averaging 177 days to be processed. ... Experts estimate that an additional 400,000 claims will be filed in the next two years" (The New York Times, June 6, p.WK13). "Care facilities for American troops and their families are buckling under the strain of war and funding limitations" (USA Today, June 5, p.1). Barry McCaffrey, retired four-star Army general: "There is no argument of whether the U.S. Army is rapidly unraveling" (The Christian Science Monitor, April 4, p.11).

The Washington Post (May 8, p.D1): "Joseph E. Stiglitz [Nobel winner in economics] ... co-authored a study that predicts the Iraq conflict alone will eventually cost taxpayers more than $1 trillion, counting military rebuilding and health care for wounded veterans." Incredibly, we haven't paid for any of this yet. The Post article noted, "The war bill is going directly on the nation's credit card." Foreign investors, especially China, have been paying for this war.

Now why would they do that? The answer: It's in their strategic interest to finance a war that drains America's financial, military, and leadership clout. They're paying for us to screw ourselves. It saves them the trouble. However, given the irresponsibility of America's military adventures and the equal irresponsibility of the American electorate in elevating someone like George W. Bush to power, why would China and the other investing nations finance the rebuilding of America's military might? How could that possibly be in their interest – especially now that the euro has overtaken the dollar as a viable medium for world exchange? Hence China and others are making obvious moves to invest differently. We're about to be left behind.

We're still important, a big economy, a player. We're still dangerous, with all our bombs and missiles. But we won't be fighting another ground war anytime soon, and everybody knows it. Financially and militarily, we're no superpower anymore – though no presidential candidate can say that. Whether we recede from center stage gracefully or destructively, we'll recede. We already have. It doesn't look that way on TV, but we already have.

Scott

The US is not a superpower anymore as these are some sources for reference:

From Superpower to Besieged Global Power: May 2008
http://www.ugapress.uga.edu/0820329770.html

Kavkaz Center
Soros: ''US is no longer a superpower''
Publication time: 7 April 2008, 20:56
http://www.kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/2008/04/07/9470.shtml

US a Superpower? Really? June 2007
http://www.austinchronicle.com/gyrobase/Issue/column?oid=oid%3A494048

GK

Scott,

The US is 25% of World GDP, three times the size of the next largest country, Japan, at 8%.

The article makes the case on why the US will continue to be a superpower in 2030. While some may debate that, no serious thinker suggests that the US is not even a superpower today.

Your claim, thus, is absurd.

Brad

I think this article is not researched well to state such an oppinion, especialy from a blog. The world is charging and so is the United States if anything to state the US will remain a superpower. The articles above state some really good points the US is no longer a superpower more than a superpower or any other superpower. I live in the US and really how some will think it will remain a superpower is really bias to know our position with Russia & China, the only 2 other superpowers. I disgree with the above comment as this is just a statement of an oppinion, not a fact. Good luck with your resources, there isn't much information that the US will remain a superpower if you want to Google it as I am surprized this isn't a whole lot of information to support this story here. I think it was written to benefit Wikipedia or something not so important but that's my oppinion.

Ken

I kind of agree this is a blog post. Somebody from Wikipedia linked this page as a US superpower reference but the person fails to explain this link is a blog not a publication. Even though there are some sources on here, there is no ties to the editor who wrote it. The editor doesn't include sources on the US problems or US deficit or the US closing down a lot of domestic US military bases down, or why NASA has no money...a lot more in the bag.

I think the US will stay in a strong position in the next 10 years but oil could seriously cripple the country without any other production method. I believe countries such as China & Russia and India will be the Superpowers if they already are, especially Russia. The United States will be in a lot of heat if it does not fix its problems though..

George

You can't trust Wikipedia it is full of kids running it, they put the sources they like and erase the sources they don't like. There are a lot on the sources on Superpower, Potential Superpowers and Great Powers are misleading completely. There are users who have fed corruption where these sources are false or only 50% true. Don't trust Wikipedia:

These are the crooked sources if anybody wants to read hogwash facts:

Wikipedia's articles Superpower, Potential Superpowers and Great Powers are misleading, completely misleading

Beware of users on Wikipedia: Hobbie Hunter, UKPhoenix79‎, Species8473, Saruman20, AI009 as also Emperor Genius, Deavenger, Meatwaggon

DON'T TRUST WIKIPEDIA!!

THIS IS FALSE INFORMATION!!

Jimmy

I happened to look at Wikipedia, there are reports on C2C misleading information lead on Wikipedia talked about. You can pay guys on their to make the content the source you wish, it just matters if you have the money to pay. There are a lot of people from India who work around the clock to keep the post on Wikipedia by special interests. So I believe it is true that people will lie on Wikipedia to make false points.

Abe Lincoln

Scott, the US is the worlds only hyper power, a step above superpowerdom, especially if China and Russia are considered to be "superpowers" (a term that is used rather loosely in todays vocabulary)

Furthermore, the US military expenditure accounts for more than half of all Military expenditures in the world. The US spends 28% more then the whole of Europe COMBINED!

If you want to argue that weaponry and machines are being wore down in Iraq, I will concede that fact, if you also concede the fact that all the current day weaponry will be obsolete when FCS (future combat systems) comes online in 2015.

Iraq and Afghanistan are sucking in vast amounts of resources, however, US military spending still far exceeds that of all other nations even if Iraq and Afghanistan spending is not taken into consideration. For example, the US military R&D budget is $70.1 Billion, which is more then Russia, and the UK spend in total military expenditures!

The US is simply using up forces, weaponry, equipment that will not be used in the coming decade. Considering this, the worries stated in the clearly liberal article you posted, seem to be overblown. (if you care about facts, that is.)

As GK said, as a percentage of GDP, the US equates about 25% of the worlds GDP. This is virtually unchanged from 30 years ago, and this is unrivaled by any current nation, and looks to be that way for quite some time.

A failing USD is somthing to worry about for sure, however, a weaker USD has its benefits, such as being more competitive with other foreign competitors, the EU economy is suffering from an over priced euro. Certain EU nations have considered the possibility of returning to their former currencys, as theyre economys sag from the euro. I would argue that it is the EU who has more going against it then the US.

Species8473

Jimmy/George, you were blocked at wikipedia. You can either accept it, or challenge it and place a request to be unblocked. Continuously circumventing, with other connections, will only further establish how justified the block is. It also is a waste of time, for all parties involved, and won't help your cause - whatever it may be. Greetings, Species8473

superpower

GK

"Google, Yahoo, eBay, Cisco, Microsoft, Sun, etc. are the companies that dominate Internet hardware and software."
Well... I guess I don't know how you define dominant. As of today, US has trade deficits even in information and communication technology products, life science technology products, optoelectronics products, and nuclear technology products.

"France, Germany, and Italy all elected pro-US leaders."
Now, you tell me the number of troops that the France and Germany have sent to Iraq and the troop level that the Italy is still present there. Some pro-US leaders they are. Needless to say, the creation and purpose of euro is not to compete with the dollar.

"The US is 25% of World GDP, three times the size of the next largest country, Japan, at 8%."
The GDP of the world is about 60 trillion. Currently, the GDP of US is 14 trillion and its national debt is about 9.4 trillion. If US pays off its debt today, the GDP of US will be 4.6 trillion not 9.4 trillion. With 9.4 trillion taken off, the US accounts 10% instead of 25% of World GDP.

"number one in war spending"
That is very good, indeed. I don't know. I guess you guys need to spend more on a b2 bomber. Obviously, a $US 1.4 billion b2 bomber is not fully operational in a moist environmnent.
http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/news/stories/200806/s2267554.htm?tab=latest


GK

superpower,

So much ignorance in one post of yours, it almost seems you are trying to appear fake.

1) Google, eBay, Yahoo, Cisco, Sun, Microsoft are all US companies. You could not even name any non-US companies. Thus, you have proven that the US dominates the Internet. You have defeated yourself spectacularly on this point.

2) You don't even know what a national debt is. It is NOT an annual measure, while GDP is. You cannot simply deduct it from GDP. It is like comparing what you spent over your whole life vs. what you make in one year.

US Assets are $60T, vs. $9T in debt, so US net worth is $51T, which is 50% of world assets. Neither is tied to annual GDP.

But your unintelligent screed shows you don't even understand the definition of annual vs. cumulative measures. Someone who clearly flunked Econ 101 having an anti-US view is a reconfirmation that thinking people hold opposite views of you.

3) It is well-known that Sarkozy, Merkel, and Berlusconi are pro-US. The first two came into power after the Iraq War was won. Surely you grasp that 2006 was later than 2003. Sarkozy and Merkel are quite active in US-led efforts to oppose Iran.

4) The US military is the mightiest force ever in the history of mankind. It even defends your weak country. Show some gratitude.

jeffolie

China announces Olympics stability drive after riot

By Chris Buckley
Mon Jun 30, 6:33 AM ET


BEIJING (Reuters) - China has launched a nationwide campaign to defuse protest ahead of the Beijing Olympic Games, state media reported on Monday, days after a riot in the country's southwest highlighted volatile social strains.

"Now we are entering a state of war," said the report on a local government website in the eastern province of Zhejiang (http://www.dqnews.com.cn).

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080630/ts_nm/olympics_unrest_dc

superpower

GK,

your posts do not even have a bit of logic in it. No wonder US has a 40% of high school drop out.

As dominant as they are as you claim, US has a trade deficits in information and communication technology products. I don't make the stuff up. This is a fact. How ignorant is that?

US has won the Iraq war. Then why are the Britians and Australians still in Iraq? sweeping the streets off the Baghdad?

"It even defends your weak country."
from who? from Iraq, the country with weapon of mass destruction?

"US Assets are $60T"
But the social security need 60 trillion to be paid for. The fact is you guys can not even function without borrowing 3 billion a day from foreigners.

superpower


GK

"superpower",

You were caught having no knowledge about what a deficit is, and that it cannot be subtracted from GDP. Your ignorance of basic economics was exposed in humiliating fashion.

You also have not yet explained your bigoted statement that :

a) France/Germany/Italy are racist/anti-Latino.
b) Latinos cannot assimilate.

Failure to explain means you hold these bigoted views.

Furthermore, you cannot even name non-US companies than dominate the Internet. You defeated yourself without even my help (which is why you avoided this point the next time..tee hee).

Lastly, you were embarassed to be shown that France, Germany, and Italy have voted in pro-US leaders.

Thus, you are crushed on all three of your claims.

The rest of your emotional outbursts are typical of envious anti-Americans. Funny, you obsess over America, while Americans don't even think about your country at all..

The discussion is about whether the US will still be the only superpower in 2030. No thinking person suggests it is not one even today. You are not a thinking person (jealous anti-Americans never are).

And yes, the US military defends your weak country, since it could not do so on its own. Show some gratitude.

Species8473

I didn't find the brands section of the article very convincing. First of all some Chinese brands in the ICT sector: Lenovo, Baidu, NetEase, Asus, Acer. It must be admitted though, that the international key players on the internet are U.S. based. Even though Google for example has only a limited marketshare in countries like China and Russia. And, how much does this marketshare really help the U.S. economy? Many activities are deployed locally. And there is a growing trend to outsource research and production to countries like India and China. There is a reason why the U.S. has a yearly GDP growth of little over 2 percent, while China is at 11,4%. Adding to that, the United States has a fast growing public debt, Chinese money for a large part.

Another point you have to explain is that of "Sarkozy, Merkel, and Berlusconi". First of all, you haven't shown they are pro-US, you have made that claim, without a single shred of evidence. Sarkozy for example has called the war in Iraq a "historic mistake". I have no idea if that would make him anti-US, what exactly do you mean by pro-US? Is a country pro-US if it's president has a shared view with the U.S. on a certain issue, and anti if he/she doesn't?

Finally your statement that "No thinking person suggests it is not one even today", on the U.S. status as a superpower. Is an insult to one of the best and brightest of your country. I'm not anti United States, or jealous, but even in your own academic community there are people (for example: Roger E. Kanet, Edward A. Kolodziej, James Chase) who have stated that the U.S. has lost it's status as a superpower. And I have yet to be proven that this is a minority view.

GK

Species8473,

Correction : The older brands, Asus and Acer, are Taiwanese companies, not based in the PRC.

Baidu, etc. may get there, but it would take a long time. This is assuming Baidu is not acquired by a US-based company like Google before then.

On leaders, it is strange that you require 'proof' for something that is so widely known, but nonetheless :

The Economist, a British Magazine, says Sarkozy is very pro-US.

Again, from The Economist over here.

"Sarkozy may be France's most unabashedly pro-US leader"

UK Telegraph : Sarkozy, Merkel are pro-US.

Video of Berlusconi speech stating the 'US is a universal symbol of freedom and democracy'

The names you mention are total unknowns, who at best have written one article somewhere. They are not even prominent enough to have wikipedia biographies (which is quite a low threshold to clear). For someone who needs 'proof' of well-known facts, quoting unknown 'academics' in support of a weak assertion seems hypocritical.

I simply need to refer you back to the 10 points in the article in general, and the first in particular. If the US economy is 3 times larger than the next largest economy (Japan), that is a gulf of historic proportions. Try disproving the US is a superpower.

Species8473

Google may buy Baidu, or perhaps Baidu or other Chinese investors buy Google. With the fastest growing Chinese economy, the dropping U.S. dollar, and growing U.S. public debt, it's not impossible. Some years ago (for example) Lenovo bought the PC divison of IBM.

On pro-US country leaders. I don't find your material convincing. And am still wondering what kind of influence it has on remaining a superpower. Policical leaders usually say nice words, as it helps maintaining economic relations. The average president is very pro virtually all other countries.

Finally the unknowns. Roger E. Kanet, is a professor of international programmes and studies, at the University of Miami. Edwards A. Kolodziej, is the director of the Center for Global Studies at the University of Illinois. And James Chase, is a teacher of international relations at Bard College.

I admit they appear to have no wikipedia pages, what's yours?

GK

Species8473,

Google may buy Baidu, or perhaps Baidu or other Chinese investors buy Google.

So when that happens, that would be a knock against point 3). Currently, Google is valued at $166B and Baidu at $10B.

Plus, I see you did not acknowledge your Acer/Asus error, which substantially weakens your initial point.

I don't find your material convincing.

Why? A major magazine like the Economist (a UK source), and an actual videotape of Berlusconi saying extremely pro-US statements are as strong evidence as you can get. More likely, you simply don't like the information.

The burden of proving they are not pro-US is on you, which means you have to come up with sources of equal or greater stature.

This has no bearing on the US remaining a superpower, and hence is not a part of the original article. This point was in response to the person who said "the whole world is fleeing US influence" and particularly to the bigot who insists that these countries will become anti-US as the US gains more Latinos. Go read that whole chain for context.

Finally the unknowns.

Yes, they are unknowns. The last one is not even a professor at Bard College. You will find a greater number of no-name professors who think 9/11 was an 'inside job', or that the Moon landing was faked. Why don't you prove to me that the Moon landing was not faked? At least three professors think it was faked....

Weak, weak, weak arguments on your part.

I admit they appear to have no wikipedia pages, what's yours?

I don't claim to be famous. But there are at least 20 links in Wikipedia to this blog, which is more than exist to the material of the people you mention.

Species8473

I'm sorry but your opinion really doesn't count:
1) You don't have a wikipedia biography
2) There are no links to your weblog in wikipedia articles (only two at talk pages)
3) Your weblog is not a reliable source according to wikipedia policy (anonymously written, self published, and in general lack proper references)

Keep on writing though, one day (I am sure), you will have a wikipedia biography

Ted

Wikipedia is the last place you want to read an article, maybe the sources used are worth reading but not the articles, as most people are not editors or writers. If you view Wikipedia there are loads of conflicts of interests and people are also paid to write the articles on Wikipedia. If some say some country is a superpower and the articles or facts are there, people may down talk it and disagree even though the evidence is there, there are people who work for the government who are making post on these special interest articles on Wikipedia and I wouldn't trust it. Wikipedia is full of corruption as people are just making the articles the way they want people to hear it but not what the truth says.

The truth is, the US has been published as a former superpower with media articles in 2007 & 2008 but some people just refuse to believe the facts but if the facts are there to support the claim, then it is special interests to believe those who are opposing it; in many ways paid interests.

Sure the US has some superpower status but not all of it, a lot of the US powers is gone where articles are now posting Russia & China as the new superpowers with plenty of evidence but if you want to read about it on Wikipedia, well that's a different story, I would turn your head away and read else where.

Jerry


The US a Superpower? Think again, now a former superpower.

Liberals and conservatives habitually speak of the United States as a superpower. Neocons like Norman Podhoretz advise that our "only option" with Iran is "to go to war" (The Week, June 8, p.6) – as though we can. A New York Times commentary on Iraq blithely states that, no matter the outcome, "the United States would still be the sole world power" (Jan. 14, p.WK1) – as though we are. Bush planners aim at establishing a "permanent" U.S. military presence in Iraq (The Christian Science Monitor, June 12, p.1) – as though we could. And presidential candidates of both parties speak as though we can accomplish anything if we're well-led. Well, as Roky Erickson once said, "You can believe that story if you want to."

Consider, first, global economics, then China, then the state of our military.

The Economist (Feb. 14, p.18): "Typically in the past, when America's economy has weakened, the rest of the world soon flagged. But this time ... the rest of the world has speeded up even as the American engine has lost steam. ... [Gross national product] per person is now growing faster in the euro area than it is in America. Domestic demand is also booming in emerging economies in Asia, the Middle East, and Russia [and] most of China's growth comes not from exports but from domestic demand." Since World War II, and until recently, American consumption has been the world's primary economic force – which is why the world had no choice but to tolerate our misadventures. Now many nations are booming on their own, in cooperation with one another. The U.S. is still important, but it's not necessary.

The Economist (April 14, p.12), under the headline "Come in number one, your time is up": "America used to be the world's biggest exporter. First it was pushed aside by Germany, and now it has been outclassed by China. ... In global finance, too, America and the dollar are being shoved off their pedestal. The dollar is still preferred as a reserve currency, but it is no longer the favourite form of cash for households and firms. There are now more euro[s] ... in circulation than there are dollars [my italics]. In the international bond market, the euro has displaced the dollar as the main currency. ... Wall Street's stockmarket capitalisation has now been eclipsed by Europe [combined with Russia]." Still important, but not necessary. Still important, but now the world has many other choices. In light of these facts, to think of the U.S. as "the sole world power" is ludicrous – as it is ludicrous to imagine that in this brave new world we will be granted the authority, and accorded the deference, to which we've been accustomed for 60 years. The leading nations haven't yet decided what to do with their new power. They're not used to it. But they'll get used to it, and they will use it – how, at this point, is anyone's guess. But the more delusional we remain about our status, the harder the shock will be when they figure out how.

It's been widely reported that we are, by far, the world's biggest debtor nation. The Week (June 8, p.20): "Including unfunded promises made for Medicare, Social Security, and federal retirement programs, U.S. taxpayers have a total debt of $59 trillion. That's $516,000 for every U.S. household." Obviously, we're not paying that debt anytime soon, especially when "the nation's average personal savings rate fell to negative 1% in 2006, meaning that Americans spent more than they earned" (The Week, Feb. 16, p.16). Also widely reported: America needs foreign investment and loans to function. Foreigners "hold a record 52%" of U.S. government debt, "up from 25% in 1995" (The Week, Dec. 15, 2006, p.44). How can you call America a superpower when we can't meet our expenses without the goodwill of our rivals?

Which brings us to China, our primary banker. The New York Times (April 14, p.C3): "Last year, when Treasury debt increased by $184 billion, almost half of that amount ... was provided by lenders in China. ... China [is] the largest source of funding for the United States government's deficits." The article reports that our Federal Reserve bought 20% of "our newly issued bonds" and that "only 4% of the [total] money came from American investors and institutions" (my italics). Which totals only 24% coming from American sources. Without the present level of foreign investment, especially Chinese investment, America would be in very bad straits. Uh oh ... the Chinese show signs of changing their ways. "Their fastest growth these days lies in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, South America, and elsewhere in Asia – in other words, practically anywhere other than the United States" (The New York Times, April 18, p.C1). One result is that China has created a new "agency to invest its immense reserves in foreign currency. ... Some analysts say the formation of the new agency means China is moving away from heavy reliance on investing in United States dollars through Treasury securities [The New York Times, March 10, p.C3]." We're still important, but not nearly as necessary. With even a small change in its investment policy, China has the power to dampen America's economy.

Now consider the state of America's military. Colin Powell, quoted in Time (April 16, p.30): "The active Army is about broken." The Washington Post (March 19, p.1): "Senior U.S. military and government officials acknowledge ... that it will take years for the Army and Marine Corps to recover from what some officials privately have called a 'death spiral,' in which the ever more rapid pace of war-zone rotations has consumed 40% of their total gear, wearied troops, and left no time to train. ... The U.S. military now lacks a large strategic reserve of ground troops ready to respond quickly and decisively to potential foreign crises. ... The vast majority [of Army units in the United States] are rated 'not ready.'" The Post article reports the reactions of several congressmen to a classified military briefing. Rep. Solomon P. Ortiz, D-Texas: "I have seen the classified-only reports. And based on those reports, I believe that we as a nation are at risk of major failure, should our Army be called to deploy to an emerging threat." Rep. Walter B. Jones, R-N.C.: "This nation has got to replenish and fix what is soon going to be broken." Finally, the Post goes on: "Under current ... plans, it will take two to three years after the Iraq war ends [my italics] ... to restore ... equipment levels. It will take five years and at least $75 billion for the Army to increase its active-duty ranks [as planned] up to 547,000 soldiers."

That's for the future. Right now the military is hurting at home as well as on the battlefield. "The backlog of [veterans'] disability claims stands at more than 405,000, with cases averaging 177 days to be processed. ... Experts estimate that an additional 400,000 claims will be filed in the next two years" (The New York Times, June 6, p.WK13). "Care facilities for American troops and their families are buckling under the strain of war and funding limitations" (USA Today, June 5, p.1). Barry McCaffrey, retired four-star Army general: "There is no argument of whether the U.S. Army is rapidly unraveling" (The Christian Science Monitor, April 4, p.11).

The Washington Post (May 8, p.D1): "Joseph E. Stiglitz [Nobel winner in economics] ... co-authored a study that predicts the Iraq conflict alone will eventually cost taxpayers more than $1 trillion, counting military rebuilding and health care for wounded veterans." Incredibly, we haven't paid for any of this yet. The Post article noted, "The war bill is going directly on the nation's credit card." Foreign investors, especially China, have been paying for this war.

Now why would they do that? The answer: It's in their strategic interest to finance a war that drains America's financial, military, and leadership clout. They're paying for us to screw ourselves. It saves them the trouble. However, given the irresponsibility of America's military adventures and the equal irresponsibility of the American electorate in elevating someone like George W. Bush to power, why would China and the other investing nations finance the rebuilding of America's military might? How could that possibly be in their interest – especially now that the euro has overtaken the dollar as a viable medium for world exchange? Hence China and others are making obvious moves to invest differently. We're about to be left behind.

We're still important, a big economy, a player. We're still dangerous, with all our bombs and missiles. But we won't be fighting another ground war anytime soon, and everybody knows it. Financially and militarily, we're no superpower anymore – though no presidential candidate can say that. Whether we recede from center stage gracefully or destructively, we'll recede. We already have. It doesn't look that way on TV, but we already have.

This says it, the US can't be a current superpower unless their economics & policies change.

GK

Species8473,

That is an extremely weak retreat, essentially proving that you have no proper response to my basic points.

You have collapsed in shambolic humiliation, and have merely lashed out with immaturity.

GK

Jerry, Ted,

You both are merely spouting memorized talking points, addressing none of the 10 points of the article.

You have merely confirmed the contrarian indicator that I mention : An unusual obsession with trying to prove that the US is not a superpower (while unable to show that any other country surpasses it on the basic metrics), is mere jealousy, which itself shows how dominant the US is.

So many people try to condemn Bill Gates, who is a law-abiding role model. The same people do not condemn petty criminals. Why? Envy. The same applies to such amateurish critics of the US.

Abe Lincoln

Here is another interesting take on the whole China debacle. Rather than butchering it up (its late) I will post the quote in its entirety.

"I am sure this reporter means well, but he really needs to go back to school and read up on the basics. Let's take China first. China's economy is, indeed, growing much more rapidly than the US economy in percentage terms, but that's because it is in the process of becoming an industrialized nation. When you make next to nothing, even a 100% increase represents a small gain. Let's put this another way: if your salary increases by 10% next year, you might be able to buy a new car with the extra money you earn. If Bill Gates receives a salary increase of only 3% next year, he could buy a tropical island with the extra money he earns. The reason is that a 10% increase over a small salary is, in absolute terms, much less money than a 3% increase over an enormous salary. China has a per capita GDP of $7598. The US? $43,444. That's how different the two economies are. China's GDP has been growing at 10% per year, but it is so drastically behind the US that it will never catch up (and 10% increases in China's GDP will not continue once it is fully industrialized). All of this needs to be kept in mind when you read that "China is growing more rapidly than the United States." It's true in percentage terms, but if China's GDP increases by 10% next year, then each person in China will be about $760 better off. If the US economy increases by only 2.2%, then each person in the US will be about $955 better off. That is, on a per capita basis, the difference between the US and China would increase (not decrease). The percentage increase measure obscures this fact and makes it seem as if the Chinese economy is overtaking the US economy. It isn't (and you aren't catching up with Bill Gates either, even if you did get a 10% raise this year)."

Sam

Hearing the daily news and reading the book "From Superpower to Besieged Global Power" http://www.ugapress.org/0820329770.html

clearly states the US is a no longer the superpower because it fails serial tests. Right now Russia & China hold superpower nations more so than the US does.

GK

Sam, a.k.a. George, a.k.a. Brad Morris,

The US is 30% of the world economy, which China is 8% and Russia is 2.5%. A normal person would not interpret this data to mean that China and Russia have surpassed the US.

You have not addressed any of the 10 points of the article. By your own admission, your sources are 'the daily news'.

That is a pathetically weak attempt to confuse your own envious wishes with reality. Your opinion, thus, is unintelligent.

Also, why are you posting under 3 different names? Trying to impersonate multiple people in order to agree with yourself is pathetic in the extreme.

huxley

GK -- I haven't stopped by in a while but now I've subscribed. Your site is looking great and thanks for articles like this. Kudos too for your prediction that we would win in Iraq in 2008. That was a brave prediction when you made it.

GK

Huxley,

Thank you so much. Yes, it turned out that 2008 was THE year of victory in Iraq. I didn't predict the 'Surge' but I was certain that Iraq's economic growth was about to take off as soon as the violence got below a certain level, and once economic growth starts, the Iraqis won't let violent misfits reverse it.

Jerry

China will surpress the US GDP by early 2009. Russia also has expanded it's military budget to $340 billion for 2008 but for 2009, it is said they will push for $410 billion next year. The US is no longer holding 30% of the world's economy, it's more like 15% to 18%, you have also forgotten the EU economy, India and more.

GK

Jerry,

"China will surpress the US GDP by early 2009. Russia also has expanded it's military budget to $340 billion for 2008..."

So the $3.2 Trillion Chinese economy will grow 500% in just the next 6 months?

Russia intends to spend 30% of its $1.2 Trillion GDP on military expenses?

How did you ever graduate from school without the ability to detect decimal errors?

anon

Jerry is a prime example of the poor education the younger generation has received.


The Total US military Budget is over 700 billion dollars (This is the total cost of all US military expenditures) That rounds out to 48% of all US miltary spending that the US equates to.

And the US economy is actually 25-27% of the worlds GDP, so much for Jerrys claims.

GK, have you heard of the fairtax? I would look into it if you havent heard about it. If the fairtax were to be adopted today, the US GDP could be nearly twice what it is today by the year 2015.

Here is a recent article from the fairtax website by (R) John Lender who explains what the fairtax would do for the US.

"Like all the great nations and societies of history the United States is rapidly coming to the end of its existence as a great and powerful country. The shackles of our nearly 70,000 page tax code are making us less and less able to compete in the global economy. Our tax on capital is cutting our businesses off at the knees. Our highest earners have half their income confiscated by the IRS. All of these taxes along with the cost of complying with nearly unfathomable tax regulations put us at a severe disadvantage as competitors in the global economy since these expenses must be added to the price of the goods and services we sell.

Ireland with its business friendly tax laws has experienced a huge economic boom while because of its punitive taxes the United States has experienced an economic slowdown. The Irish are praying that we do not adopt the FairTax. They recognize that the relocation of American companies to Ireland was precipitated by our smothering taxes on capital and labor. Ireland realizes that the establishment of the FairTax would give America the best business climate in the world drawing its American companies back home along with attracting many other foreign businesses.

The passage of the simple, fair, and transparent FairTax Bill, only 132 pages long, will abolish all Federal income taxes, including personal, estate, gift, capital gains, alternative minimum, corporate, payroll, and self-employment taxes, and replace them with one simple, visible, personal consumption tax. It would tax what we remove from society by consumption instead of taxing what we contribute to society by production and investment.

Every American household would receive a cash distribution every month to cover the consumption taxes they would spend for their basic nourishment, housing, transportation, and medical needs. There will be zero taxes paid for necessities. Beyond what Americans spend for necessities 23% of what they choose to spend at the retail level for personal use will be forwarded to the treasury. The FairTax will replace dollar for dollar the current revenues confiscated by the IRS.

Politicians have been changing the tax code since 1913 to gain the favor of one voting bloc or another. We have had some 16,000 changes to the code since the mid-eighties and the problems these changes were supposed to help have been exacerbated or replaced with other problems. Therefore, the changes go on and on and on and the power it yields to our politicians corrupts them more and more and more. Our tax code has driven $2 trillion into the underground economy costing us about $50 billion in tax collections. Our tax code has driven $12 trillion into offshore financial centers. These funds should be working in our markets and banks. We are spending between $400 and $500 billion each year just complying with the code. That money is a total and unnecessary loss to the economy.

Everybody complains about the complexity, unfairness, and intrusiveness of the IRS. Our politicians in response to our complaints all claim to be for reforming the tax code but reforming it is not the solution. It does not need reforming. It needs to be replaced by the FairTax. Top American businessmen, tax experts, and economists have devoted years to the development of the simple, fair, and transparent FairTax Bill. These experts spent some 12 years formulating the FairTax Bill. At the pace of our “do nothing” Congress it would take 1200 years to reform our hopelessly complicated Tax Code. Tweaking the Tax Code fixes nothing. Getting rid of the IRS fixes everything.

When John Linder and some of his FairTax supporters presented the FairTax Bill to former Secretary of the Treasury, John Snow, he said, “You have just proposed the largest magnet for capital and jobs in history.” It is a good thing for all Americans for the United States to be the outsource destination for jobs. It is a good thing for all Americans for our nation to be the world’s safest and most stable tax haven. The FairTax will give us these results as well as a business climate that will expand freedom.

http://www.fairtax.org/site/News2?page=NewsArticle&id=10009"

anon

I recently read an article which states that China will surpass the US in total GDP by 2035.


"Keidel's calculations suggest that using the PPP method, China will catch up with the US as an economic power by 2020, with an equivalent GDP of $18 trillion. Based on the more commonly accepted market method, the turning point will come by 2035. By 2050, he estimated Chinese GDP at some $82 trillion compared with $44 trillion for the US."
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1014151.shtml

Keidel says that it will take china 70+ years to equal US GDP Per capita.

By 2070, Chinas GDP (estimated to be $180 trillion) could be 2.5x the size of Americas (estimated to be $80 trillion).

"The report by Albert Keidel, currently a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), argues that Beijing's torrid annual growth rates, that have averaged around 10 percent over the past three decades, are likely to be sustained over the next two before gradually declining to around three percent -- the rate at which the U.S. economy is projected to grow over the same period -- by 2070.

By then, however, China's economy, currently estimated at only about one-third that of the U.S., will have built up such momentum that its total annual gross domestic product (GDP) will reach the equivalent of nearly 180 trillion 2005 dollars, dwarfing the 80-trillion-dollar U.S. economy projected for the same year, according to the study, entitled "China's Economic Rise - Fact and Fiction'. "

http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=43150

Im not exactly sure of the model Mr. Keidel used for his calculations, but it is interesting.

Ailyn

Hi GK, I got some ideas on your website for my research paper and I need to put you in my bibliography. May I know your full name? You can just send it to my email: dropzofice@yahoo.com
I hope you don't mind... Thanks you!

GK

Ailyn,

I am happy to help. I can't disclose my real name, but you can cite 'The Futurist' and the URL www.singularity2050.com.

Thanks.

S

The US deficit is $9.7 trillion and US GDP is $13 trillion, so with all that debt, the US is not worth $13 trillion dollars because it owes too much money. They do not own all their military arsenals, nor is do they have any pink slips for the international space space and so much more. The US debt is subtracted from the US GPD, that makes the US worth $3.3 trillion dollars and so, look at the US economy, it is melting into depression period as they US has just barrowed way too much money and it will run out.

GK

S (aka Scott, Jerry, and Ken),

You have a gross misunderstanding of debt and GDP.

GDP is an annual measure, while debt is a cumulative measure. In 1 year, US GDP is $14T. In 2 years, about $28T, etc.

US assets are $65T, so US debt of $9T has to be subtracted from US assets, so $65T - $9T is $56T in assets.

As a percentage of GDP, US debt is actually less than many other countries, including Britain.

Why are you pretending to be multiple posters (all posting from one IP address)? It is pathetic to pretend that multiple people agree with you.

Jim Rogers

The US is trillions in debt and growing by the month. We have more debt than all other nations COMBINED. We are the greatest debtor nation EVER IN HISTORY.

Because of this, the US dollar may be the reserve currency NOW, but it certainly won't be in 30 years as we continue to debase our currency with debt and an ever growing trade deficit.

We are already seeing the effects as the Euro reaches historic highs against the dollar and nations begin pricing commodities in currencies other than the dollar.

The world is changing. The US is not guaranteed to be #1 like you want it to be. All empires have crumbled -- Rome, Great Britain -- and now it's time for the sun to set on the US empire and for it to rise in China.

Instead of fighting against the facts, you should accept it. By investing in China, commodities, and other nations, you will make a far larger fortune than you ever will by closing your eyes and chanting "USA is #1"

CJ

You should remove the bizarre and incomprehensible world map of immigration displayed beside point #6. The USA appears in a dark forest green color not found on the color key. Immigration-receiving countries like Canada and Britain are the same color as countries like Ukraine and Romania which are losing people. There is no information given about whether the colrs and numbers apply to inflows and outflows, and there is no attempts to show the movement of specific populations. This map is worse than nothing.

brokerdavelhr

Jim Rogers,
The fact that you believe that the dollar is weak to the euro is an odd one.
I recently lived in GE for some time, and gotta tell you, they are about twice as broke as we are. The majority of the people are under heavy economic stress, and can barely afford to live. This is largely due to the adoption of the euro.
Of course the world trade market will disagree. They say that the euro is worth alot. I want to know how. I want to know why all the countries that have adopted the euro have a majority of people who are in an impoverished state. For the most part, the people in those countries never wanted or needed the euro. It was shoved down their throats by their politicians who felt that it would strengthen their economic position in the world.

Did you know that when said countries adapted the euro, the paychecks were cut in half (on average), the prices on items shipped in from foreign countries kept their price tag in euro's, making it so that on average, a working persons salary was only worth a quarter of what it used to be?
So my answer to the euro is that it is worthless. It's implementation brought poverty on entire counties, shattered their trust in their governments, and is a drive to a new world order.
So for you to say that the dollar is weak against the euro, makes me wonder if you have invested in it. It also makes me wonder why the international markets believe this load of bull.

Bas

Will there be any update of this article given that the coming depression in the US?

GK

Bas,

No, because :

1) It is not a depression, but rather a severe recession. People are over-using the word 'depression' without knowing what it means.

2) China is also affected by this, so the relative position of the US vs. China is not changing. The EU is affected even more.

Darko

I just wanted to express my gratitude to take your time and express your views.

The great thing is that you also explain the CURRENT things happening in an objective fashion compared to the mainstream media.

You cover the past, present and the future but yeah focus more on the future.

Still, much better explanation than the mainstream media.

Thanks.

zdenka

A true Superpower is measured by the Amount of freedom and Human rights their citizens enjoy. So, no, China will NEVER be a Superpower in any way.

Daniel Hasbo

i think once again you're wrong on the EU. It's not a country now 2010. In 20 years this could change, i think it will. 20 years ago the EU didnt exist and was only an economic agreement between countries. Now i can travel to germany without showing my passport. I would take nothing more than 1 treaty after lissabon to transform EU into a superpower. About the lack of foreign policy and army, we're getting there. Eurocrops, eu battlegroups, CFSP and CSDP. We've recently got European external action service which will create EU embassies. There have already been common missions to chad and an ongoing naval operation in somalia. The lisbon treaty allows an army to become reality.
"The common security and defence policy shall include the progressive framing of a common defence policy. This will lead to a common defence, when the European Council, acting unanimously, so decides. (TEU, Article 42)"

EU controls more trade than than america. Has a seat at G8, WTO and UN. Has a larger share of the global economy and accounts for 21% of the world total economic input. Image the new members from the former east bloc with economies as western europe. Plus new members in the balkans and turkey. Also 161 of all fortune 500 companies have their hq's in europe.

You don't seem to realise how much more united europe could be in 20/30 years.

GK

Daniel Hasbo,

If anything, the events of recent weeks show that the EU is far more at risk than before. Germany does not want to be tied to the profligacy of Greece and other PIGS countries.

Unless there is a unified leader who commands a unified military, and a sole currency across the region, the EU is not a nation. This is the point you keep avoiding. The nuclear missiles of Britain and France are not at the disposal of the leaders of Poland or Portugal or Slovakia.

The EU is not a country.

An American can travel to Canada and Mexico without showing his passport, so that point is very trivial.

You don't seem to realise how much more united europe could be in 20/30 years.

It will be a much smaller share of world GDP by then (smaller than China and possibly India), and much more Islamic.

Daniel Hasbo

Well you know that only 3 countries arnt already in the process of adopting the euro right?? that makes in 24 states. UK,Sweden and my country Denmark will get to vote on it in near future meaning 24-27 members in the eurozone. Again I haven't once said that EU was a nation. I said it could become one in the future. We already have Herman Van Rompuy as president. He is not really a president but it's a start. One treaty could change this. I know the EU economy will have a smaller share of world GDP but so will the unied states but you proudly proclaim them to remain a superpower?? I mean EU already has a larger gdp share of the world compared to the united states. You keep on saying the EU is not a country at present, yet you don't deny it could be in the future. Point is in 20 after a treaty the EU could act like a country.

GK

Daniel,

I said it could become one in the future.

Let's wait until it becomes one. The UK is very important. Unless the UK adopts the Euro, no chance.

During the Iraq War, some EU countries were part of the coalition (UK, Italy, Poland, Norway), while some were virulently opposed (France, Germany). Such divisions are not the signs of nation.

France and Britain are permanent members of the UN security council, but Germany is not.

Let's wait until it becomes a country, which until now, it is very far from being.

I know the EU economy will have a smaller share of world GDP but so will the unied states but you proudly proclaim them to remain a superpower??

US growth rates are higher than the EU, so it will not shrink nearly as quickly as the EU, as a share. Plus, there are another 9 points in the article.

Daniel

I was hoping for an article debunking my theory. But okay ;) Ill keep reading.

GK

Daniel,

It has been debunked. Everything you wish for is contingent on the EU becoming a country, and as I discussed, this is very, very far from happening at this point.

Daniel

please remove hasbo from my earlier posts. thank you.

Paul

People are also forgetting that the Chinese government and people lack the political will to flex their military muscle and project their forces too far from home.

They may be growing economically but that is all. Like most Orientals, they lack the creativity and capacity for critical thought to be of a leading force in world affairs.

This article confirms that above all else.

Savethemales

I read your article and all the comments. Three good points spell trouble for America:

1. The misandry bubble, which you posted a couple years later. The posters on the MRA forums believe feminism will take down America or severely damage the country at minimum. You can't oppress half the population in a democracy.

2. America can never pay off it's http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/it-is-now-mathematically-impossible-to-pay-off-the-u-s-national-debt and a healthy country can't run on debt instead of wealth. Yes, the GDP is in the trillions, yet the debt is increasing and can't be paid off!

3. Important technologies/medicines such as stem cells are available in China and other countries, but not in America for another decade. It's bad when developing countries are a decade ahead of medical technologies(stem cells in particular) over developed countries!

kevin

you forgot one thing, the currency rate will change. once 1 dollor = 8.3 yuan,now it's 6.6, it could be below 5 in 3 years.

china's GDP will be 5.8 trillions in 2010, and will be 7.5 Trillions in 2012, that's will be half of US's gdp.

so in 10 years, china's GDP will pass US'GDP, and India is coming, US will be the #3 in 20 years.

Pavo

I have never seen such a rude and academically unprofessional debate as this. If only manners and politeness were determinants of Superpower status.

Taylor

This is one of the best pieces of writing I've ever read. I'm writing a paper for a contemporary history class, explaning why the United States will remain top of the dominance charts. This piece helped me so much, and it was extremely enjoyable to read. I loved it. Great Job!

GK

Taylor,

Thanks! But you should also read my other article, 'The Misandry Bubble' about one caveat that could derail our superpowerdom.

The source of this risk is the last place most people would think.

yil,

What about Russia? They were almost at par with us, yet they were not even mentioned.

GK

yil,

Russia's economy is only as big as Mexico's, and it has a shrinking population.

It is not a superpower. It arguably never was (as the article explains).

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