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brokerdavelhr

GK,
Very interesting. I believe however that many of the items listed have a good shot at being achieved well under the predicted date though.
Take the 50 billion people connected to the internet at speeds greater then 10mbps by '22. What you don't know, is that most internet links already have that capability, and already being piped into your home. Do you know why some files download at 3 mbps on a regular subscriber line, and others at a mere 300kbps? The answer is not the internet itself, but rather the servers on the other end.
The internet today in the US is made up of hundreds of sophisticated routers with a switch fabric of over 720 gbps. In many cases, the network itself is many times faster then most home PC's.
I get so tired of hearing about how we are 'running out of bandwidth'. I want to know who said that, and what makes them think that we are even close. We were running out of IP4 addresses, but that was solved with the advent of IPv6, which will support over 8 octillion addresses. Currently, the internet is ran at about 1-5% it's potential.
So now lets begin. Add about 4,000,000,000 to the internet at 10 mbps (this hardly needs much of an upgrade on the internet itself). Now take the existing 1,000,000,000(est), and increase their BW by about 3 times what they already have available. A few hundred more routers, and the power to make it all happen, and BAM! No, I see this happening well before '22.
All this alone will require a massive amount of power, so we will either need to adopt nuclear power as a main source, or find another source. A corollary to this would be to use solar power. Due to the advent of nano technology by that time,less power will be needed for home systems. This will take a bit of the load off of the main lines.
So, I see all this as technologically feasible. The only catch I could think of is the age old 'just because you can, does not mean that you should' adage.
I take that back actually. How do you think humanity will deal with such a environment?

GK

brokerdavelhr,

I don't know about too much happening before the dates. If it goes as you say, then the Singularity is set for well before 2050.

The core routers are not the bottleneck, rather the 'last mile' and other home/curb infrastructure is, particularly for developing regions.

Even if the first 100 million people get the best technology, it takes time to get it down to 5 billion people (out of 7 billion in the world) in 2022.

C.S

Hmm, I believe by 2030-35, at least in the U.S, (and I am in NYC too), AEV or LEV, as Aubrey de Grey puts it, will be at 50% or higher. At the very least there will be technologies to extend life-spans of people who are in their 50's to 100 years easily putting them over the top (probably what Kurzweil is hoping too).

It's not so much I care since I am in my early 20's but I hope these technologies come out quickly for my father's sake.

Rob R.

How exactly did you arrive at these dates? Kurzweil is more optimistic, predicting AI able to pass the Turing test in 2029 for example.

By the way, here in Holland most people already have >10Mbps connection to their homes. I have 20Mbps DSL for 20 euro a month.

The rates things are going, i expect to have 20Gbps in 2022 :*)

GK

Kurzweil is more optimistic, predicting AI able to pass the Turing test in 2029 for example.

Kurzweil tends to overstate the rate of change. His predictions usually are correct in nature, but too soon in timing.

By the way, here in Holland most people already have >10Mbps connection to their homes.

Holland is a small, prosperous country of high population density. The important number is the 5 billion number. That matters much more than just 16 million in Holland and 46 million in South Korea.

2 billion people in the world still do not have electricity, you know.

Plus, 20 Mbps is not the real, continuous speed your are getting.

Rob R.

Kurzweil tends to overstate the rate of change. His predictions usually are correct in nature, but too soon in timing.

I think you are right, but what i'm interested in is HOW do you arive at these years, the method. What models do you use to calculate those dates.

Holland is a small, prosperous country of high population density. The important number is the 5 billion number. That matters much more than just 16 million in Holland and 46 million in South Korea.

Yes, but i think that in 2022, 10Mbps technology will already be obsolete, just like 14K4 modems are right now. Those 5 billion people in 2022 will likely use wireless technology to access the internet. If Gbps technology is matured, there is no point in using Mbps since it will be hardly cheaper.
Compare it with DVD-players, they are more advanced than CD-players but at this point they cost no more to manufacture.

Plus, 20 Mbps is not the real, continuous speed your are getting

If you live close enough to the telephone hub, it is possible with DSL. In my former house i was able to download continuously with 19Mbps speed, in my new house 17Mbps.

GK

Rob R,

Again, today there are not even 5 billion people that have electricity. The CD/DVD example is incomplete, as far less than 5 billion people ever owned a CD, a tape, or even a radio.

By 2022, 5 billion will have both electricity and greater than 10 Mbps Internet (mostly wireless).

The 'greater than' part is important. Some will have 10 Gbps, but that will be just a few. But 5 billion people (of 7 billion+ alive at the time), will have 10 Mbps Internet, which even the richest did not have in 1994.

Anon

facinating, I just turned 22 about 2 months ago. In 1908, the average life expectancy was 51.1 years. I cant help but wonder what my life expectancy will be 20-30, years from now.

I think there are also a lot of unintended variable breakthroughs that could possibly prolong life significantly longer than thought reasonably possible.

GK

Anon,

Indeed. Go read the 'Actuarial Escape Velocity' and 'Top 10 Transhumanist Technologies' articles.

In fact, go read the whole 'Biotechnology' category in the right hand margin.

Anon

That was an interesting read GK. The AEV is a reality, and some people think we are approaching that much faster then you.

Here is an interesting read from the BBC that I think you will find interesting. It it, they claim that the possibility of living to be 1000 years old, and reverse aging to that of a 20 something year old. So imagine for a bit, if you could live 1000 years as a 20 year old...

Im not saying its possible, but it is an interesting read.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4003063.stm

Anon

Here is another interesting read from live science. It basically says the same thing, live to be 1000 at the age of 20 something. It goes into quite a bit more detail as well. Its a bit more interesting to read than the BBC link.

http://www.livescience.com/health/050411_aubrey_interview.html

Oh, and it says this "could" be a reality in 25 years!

GK

Anon,

It would be great if it happens, but I give it just a 50% chance by 2040 (32 years from now).

Anon

I dont disagree necessarily. However, I think we both can agree that 25 years from now, the world will be a very different place. Who knows for sure what life will be like then.

indio

Its Teraflop, by the way, not flops.

GK

indio,

Actually, no. The 'S' is needed even in singular usage of the term, as the last two letters, PS, stand for 'per second'. Hence the 'S' is used even when discussing 1 TERAFLOP.

Boris

"By the way, here in Holland most people already have >10Mbps connection to their homes."

"Holland is a small, prosperous country of high population density. The important number is the 5 billion number. That matters much more than just 16 million in Holland and 46 million in South Korea. "

Bulgaria is a small but not necessary a prosperous country in most people's minds. Yet broadband speeds through optical cables are even bigger there and they cost half of their price in Netherlands. What limits the speeds in US is the legislated monopoly/duopoly of the cable and telephone companies. The population density and fierce competition in the emerging markets will drive down the cost for billions of people. The sparsely populated areas will benefit from the new Wi-Fi standards. In few years the US monopolies will be broken by the internet giants, who will benefit the most from increasing broadband speeds.

Car dvd players

I had always wanted to learn about this topic ...Seeing all the above comments though, maybe I might have to keep looking. I think it's great the way you expose .. great work and continuing on with this great blog.

Savethemales

Car dvd players is a spammer.

Let me add the sexual singularity of 2030 with robogirls that will surpass all women in sexiness/hotness/looks. Then 2060 will be the tech. sing. where robots surpass humans in brains.

Rachel-Nicole

Very interesting but seems like quite a positive yet obtainable outlook. I hope we are able to come up with these results
...When the people in the 50's made movies of what it would be like in the 21st century with flying cars and space houses, it seemed like they thought it would happen.
I only hope we aren't being too optimistic and these advances can happen!

shallow

It would be nice if you can update the milestones and predictions. It seems that 2012-2013 will be the year to cross $1000 per human genome mark

GK

shallow,

While $1000 might be hit before 2020, it won't be as soon as you mention. Note that I am talking about retail prices to the average person, not the bulk cost at the supercomputing center.

Maybe 2016....

Geoman

2017 update: Hours spent in videoconferencing surpass hours spent in air travel/airports : 2015 (probably true - certainly true for me.)

Video games with interactive, human-level AI : 2018 (hmmm. Seems like we are very close. certainly AI's can beat most humans at most games at this point.)

Semi-realistic fully immersive virtual reality : 2020 (seems like we are pretty close).

Over 5 billion people connected to the Internet (mostly wirelessly) at speeds greater than 10 Mbps : 2022 (3.8 billion are on the internet, 51% of the total population. Global average connection speed is 5.6 Mbps, but many countries are well over 10 mbps. Seems likely we will make this mark.)

Over 30 network-connected devices in the average household worldwide : 2025 (5.2 per household in the U.S. currently.)

1 TeraFLOPS of computing power costs $1 : 2026 (we are at $3.00. getting pretty close).

1 TeraWatt of worldwide photovoltaic power capacity : 2027 (currently at 303 GW - 1/3 there. But 75 GW was installed last year. Looks like we are going to beat this goal handily.)

1 Petabyte of storage costs $1 : 2028 (about $1,000 today).

1 Terabyte of RAM costs $1 : 2031 (Currently $3k. But falling)

Complete personal genome sequencing costs $1000 : 2020 (we are there now. And there is a company promising to do it for $100 in the near future.)

Cancer is no longer one of the top 5 causes of death : 2025 (cancer is currently #2. But part of this might be that other causes are also falling.)

Complete personal genome sequencing costs $10 : 2030 (probably we will make it.)

10,000 billionaires worldwide (nominal dollars) : 2030 (there are currently 1,542 billionaires, so this goal definitely seems reachable.)

World GDP per Capita crosses $50,000 in 2008 dollars : 2045 ($17,156 today).

So overall - we are ahead on a few, behind on a few, but not a bad group of predictions. It is interesting that progress has a fixed direction, but not necessarily a straight line - meaning we can fall behind, or get ahead of the curve, but the direction of progress remains uniform.

Kartik Gada

Hi Geoman,

Thanks for checking back on this. A timeline is the hardest form of prediction, as it is particularly vulnerable to those who want to taint a larger body of work.

Over 30 network-connected devices in the average household worldwide : 2025 (5.2 per household in the U.S. currently.)

This is when I failed to take into account the extent of unit consolidation that we would see (20 different things vanishing into smartphones, etc). So 'units' was not the right metric.

Video games with interactive, human-level AI : 2018 (hmmm. Seems like we are very close. certainly AI's can beat most humans at most games at this point.)

I think this is on-track as well, for higher-end games. Tensorflow Lite was just released last week, and is a step-function upwards for basic AI to get further commoditized and reside in things like video games. Developers can pop it in within the next 13 months. AI advancements have been staircase-like for this and similar reasons.

Semi-realistic fully immersive virtual reality : 2020 (seems like we are pretty close).

This also appears certain, as the v2 and v3 redesigns of the HTC Vive will manifest by around then.

__________________________________________

Let me know if you agree that there is none that appears to be significantly off/too far ahead of schedule (other than the 'units per household' one, where I should not have used a 'units' metric). The median appears to be on the dot (an equal number slightly ahead or behind).

That said, my views on achieving radical longevity have become far more bearish, mainly due to the steepness of the post-100 wall, and the fact that AI may be the path to the Singularity with humans as a lesser participant, in which humans are not entirely necessary (and not really required for the ATOM).

Ray Kurzweil tends to uniformly find his predictions to be too soon (everything he predicted for now, back in 2000, appears to be 8-12 years away). He is never too late or on the dot. This is partly due to the NGDP problem I wrote about in the ATOm.


Geoman

I agree - well done. If anything you have been slightly pessimistic, which is a plus.

"This is when I failed to take into account the extent of unit consolidation that we would see (20 different things vanishing into smartphones, etc.). So 'units' was not the right metric."

That brings an interesting topic - at times, even the means by which we measure something will be hopelessly outdated in the singularity. What if RAM expands so fast it starts eating into other forms of storage - to a point where they simply don't matter? What if we live forever as digital ghosts? Are we then even alive? Is years of life even a measure of anything?

I think a good analogy for the singularity is our dogs. For them the singularity has already happened - they live much longer, the necessities of life are plentiful and free, as is lodging and just about everything else. They sort of dimly understand certain things that are going on, but don't have a lot of power to affect change. They can make a mess at times by behaving badly, but overall, life is pretty good for most western dogs. But they are definitely not the center of decisions, and at best they are mere observers or participants.

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