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brokerdavelhr

GK,
Very interesting. I believe however that many of the items listed have a good shot at being achieved well under the predicted date though.
Take the 50 billion people connected to the internet at speeds greater then 10mbps by '22. What you don't know, is that most internet links already have that capability, and already being piped into your home. Do you know why some files download at 3 mbps on a regular subscriber line, and others at a mere 300kbps? The answer is not the internet itself, but rather the servers on the other end.
The internet today in the US is made up of hundreds of sophisticated routers with a switch fabric of over 720 gbps. In many cases, the network itself is many times faster then most home PC's.
I get so tired of hearing about how we are 'running out of bandwidth'. I want to know who said that, and what makes them think that we are even close. We were running out of IP4 addresses, but that was solved with the advent of IPv6, which will support over 8 octillion addresses. Currently, the internet is ran at about 1-5% it's potential.
So now lets begin. Add about 4,000,000,000 to the internet at 10 mbps (this hardly needs much of an upgrade on the internet itself). Now take the existing 1,000,000,000(est), and increase their BW by about 3 times what they already have available. A few hundred more routers, and the power to make it all happen, and BAM! No, I see this happening well before '22.
All this alone will require a massive amount of power, so we will either need to adopt nuclear power as a main source, or find another source. A corollary to this would be to use solar power. Due to the advent of nano technology by that time,less power will be needed for home systems. This will take a bit of the load off of the main lines.
So, I see all this as technologically feasible. The only catch I could think of is the age old 'just because you can, does not mean that you should' adage.
I take that back actually. How do you think humanity will deal with such a environment?

GK

brokerdavelhr,

I don't know about too much happening before the dates. If it goes as you say, then the Singularity is set for well before 2050.

The core routers are not the bottleneck, rather the 'last mile' and other home/curb infrastructure is, particularly for developing regions.

Even if the first 100 million people get the best technology, it takes time to get it down to 5 billion people (out of 7 billion in the world) in 2022.

C.S

Hmm, I believe by 2030-35, at least in the U.S, (and I am in NYC too), AEV or LEV, as Aubrey de Grey puts it, will be at 50% or higher. At the very least there will be technologies to extend life-spans of people who are in their 50's to 100 years easily putting them over the top (probably what Kurzweil is hoping too).

It's not so much I care since I am in my early 20's but I hope these technologies come out quickly for my father's sake.

Rob R.

How exactly did you arrive at these dates? Kurzweil is more optimistic, predicting AI able to pass the Turing test in 2029 for example.

By the way, here in Holland most people already have >10Mbps connection to their homes. I have 20Mbps DSL for 20 euro a month.

The rates things are going, i expect to have 20Gbps in 2022 :*)

GK

Kurzweil is more optimistic, predicting AI able to pass the Turing test in 2029 for example.

Kurzweil tends to overstate the rate of change. His predictions usually are correct in nature, but too soon in timing.

By the way, here in Holland most people already have >10Mbps connection to their homes.

Holland is a small, prosperous country of high population density. The important number is the 5 billion number. That matters much more than just 16 million in Holland and 46 million in South Korea.

2 billion people in the world still do not have electricity, you know.

Plus, 20 Mbps is not the real, continuous speed your are getting.

Rob R.

Kurzweil tends to overstate the rate of change. His predictions usually are correct in nature, but too soon in timing.

I think you are right, but what i'm interested in is HOW do you arive at these years, the method. What models do you use to calculate those dates.

Holland is a small, prosperous country of high population density. The important number is the 5 billion number. That matters much more than just 16 million in Holland and 46 million in South Korea.

Yes, but i think that in 2022, 10Mbps technology will already be obsolete, just like 14K4 modems are right now. Those 5 billion people in 2022 will likely use wireless technology to access the internet. If Gbps technology is matured, there is no point in using Mbps since it will be hardly cheaper.
Compare it with DVD-players, they are more advanced than CD-players but at this point they cost no more to manufacture.

Plus, 20 Mbps is not the real, continuous speed your are getting

If you live close enough to the telephone hub, it is possible with DSL. In my former house i was able to download continuously with 19Mbps speed, in my new house 17Mbps.

GK

Rob R,

Again, today there are not even 5 billion people that have electricity. The CD/DVD example is incomplete, as far less than 5 billion people ever owned a CD, a tape, or even a radio.

By 2022, 5 billion will have both electricity and greater than 10 Mbps Internet (mostly wireless).

The 'greater than' part is important. Some will have 10 Gbps, but that will be just a few. But 5 billion people (of 7 billion+ alive at the time), will have 10 Mbps Internet, which even the richest did not have in 1994.

Anon

facinating, I just turned 22 about 2 months ago. In 1908, the average life expectancy was 51.1 years. I cant help but wonder what my life expectancy will be 20-30, years from now.

I think there are also a lot of unintended variable breakthroughs that could possibly prolong life significantly longer than thought reasonably possible.

GK

Anon,

Indeed. Go read the 'Actuarial Escape Velocity' and 'Top 10 Transhumanist Technologies' articles.

In fact, go read the whole 'Biotechnology' category in the right hand margin.

Anon

That was an interesting read GK. The AEV is a reality, and some people think we are approaching that much faster then you.

Here is an interesting read from the BBC that I think you will find interesting. It it, they claim that the possibility of living to be 1000 years old, and reverse aging to that of a 20 something year old. So imagine for a bit, if you could live 1000 years as a 20 year old...

Im not saying its possible, but it is an interesting read.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4003063.stm

Anon

Here is another interesting read from live science. It basically says the same thing, live to be 1000 at the age of 20 something. It goes into quite a bit more detail as well. Its a bit more interesting to read than the BBC link.

http://www.livescience.com/health/050411_aubrey_interview.html

Oh, and it says this "could" be a reality in 25 years!

GK

Anon,

It would be great if it happens, but I give it just a 50% chance by 2040 (32 years from now).

Anon

I dont disagree necessarily. However, I think we both can agree that 25 years from now, the world will be a very different place. Who knows for sure what life will be like then.

indio

Its Teraflop, by the way, not flops.

GK

indio,

Actually, no. The 'S' is needed even in singular usage of the term, as the last two letters, PS, stand for 'per second'. Hence the 'S' is used even when discussing 1 TERAFLOP.

Boris

"By the way, here in Holland most people already have >10Mbps connection to their homes."

"Holland is a small, prosperous country of high population density. The important number is the 5 billion number. That matters much more than just 16 million in Holland and 46 million in South Korea. "

Bulgaria is a small but not necessary a prosperous country in most people's minds. Yet broadband speeds through optical cables are even bigger there and they cost half of their price in Netherlands. What limits the speeds in US is the legislated monopoly/duopoly of the cable and telephone companies. The population density and fierce competition in the emerging markets will drive down the cost for billions of people. The sparsely populated areas will benefit from the new Wi-Fi standards. In few years the US monopolies will be broken by the internet giants, who will benefit the most from increasing broadband speeds.

Car dvd players

I had always wanted to learn about this topic ...Seeing all the above comments though, maybe I might have to keep looking. I think it's great the way you expose .. great work and continuing on with this great blog.

Savethemales

Car dvd players is a spammer.

Let me add the sexual singularity of 2030 with robogirls that will surpass all women in sexiness/hotness/looks. Then 2060 will be the tech. sing. where robots surpass humans in brains.

Rachel-Nicole

Very interesting but seems like quite a positive yet obtainable outlook. I hope we are able to come up with these results
...When the people in the 50's made movies of what it would be like in the 21st century with flying cars and space houses, it seemed like they thought it would happen.
I only hope we aren't being too optimistic and these advances can happen!

shallow

It would be nice if you can update the milestones and predictions. It seems that 2012-2013 will be the year to cross $1000 per human genome mark

GK

shallow,

While $1000 might be hit before 2020, it won't be as soon as you mention. Note that I am talking about retail prices to the average person, not the bulk cost at the supercomputing center.

Maybe 2016....

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