« The Next Big Thing in Entertainment, A Half-Time Update | Main | Timing the Singularity »

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d83452455969e20120a527c478970c

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Video Conferencing : A Cascade of Disruptions:

Comments

Matt Collins

GK,

I have spent just spent 14 months working at a Video Conferencing company in Wales, UK. It's the biggest network of video conferencing endpoints/infrastructure in the UK if not Europe.

URL is: www.wvn.ac.uk

I don't doubt that you know what your talking about but having been in the industry for just over a year i can confirm that the trend is definitely set. I recently quoted for a solution and the cost of one Polycom Endpoint was £2,177. A year ago there was nothing on the market for even close that amount, this proves your (and my own) predictions that video conferencing is the way forward.

Aside from the fact that the prices are dropping the technology is advancing (Moore's law). I recently visited 4 main manufactures headquarters (Polycom, Lifesize, Tandberg and Sony) and some of the stuff they have in the pipelines is truly science fiction. Some of the things i saw ranged from 3D video conferencing to full video walls. These things are as little as 5 years away.

If you would like to talk further about video conferencing i would be happy to oblige!

So to echo your words: This is progress.

GK

Matt,

Do you have links for the 3D videoconferencing and full video walls?

Matt Collins

Gk,

My last post seems to have gone. Either it didn't post properly or you deleted it. If it's the latter may i ask why?

Thanks,

Matt

GK

Matt,

Nothing was deleted. Please re-post.

Matt Collins

That's quite weird then. My apologies!

In response to your question here is the link to the 3D telepresence solution from Sony. It's a plasma screen that's project using upwards. Although simple it is really effective. I have seen this product in action and it current retails for about £40,000. The effect is really something special, you do kinda forget that it's a video conference. You need need glasses to view either.

The link is: http://www.sony.co.uk/biz/view/ShowContent.action?logicalname=LP-2008-08-Telepresence-HUB-Art1&site=biz_en_GB

In regards to the video wall, it is something Tandberg have in the pipelines. I was informed it's on the road map for the next five years. I saw a pre production version and it was quite buggy. The fact it's even happening is an accomplishment in itself though.

The link is: http://www.tandberg.com/video-conferencing-learning-center/unified-communications.jsp

It's the last video out of the three. You might also like to view the second video as it provides a clear insight into where Tandberg want to go.

Could i just say that while i agree with your views about how it will effect the corporate world, i think you should also take the effects video conferencing will have on other areas. Mainly education because now schools with zero budget who get thier video conferencing kit paid for can take part in a whole load of things. A few examples that i have seen are:

-museums offer free content to schools via VC. They provide interactive sessions which are free. This is obviously a lot cheaper than taking a coach load of kids to and from a museum.

-Schools can now talk to the rest of the world. A classroom in the Uk can talk to a classroom in India. This allows people to exchange views on culture etc.

-Guest lecturers are alot easier to persuade to do a talk if they can do it over VC in the comfort of thier own school, college etc. This also includes guest speakers from other areas and industries.

I think another area that video conferencing is set to boom is in Medical applications. Cisco are rolling out a project called TeleMedecine.

Please see the link: http://newsroom.cisco.com/dlls/2009/prod_071509.html

We are also seeing companies move into Unified Communications and there is also a lot of push for desktop conferencing and consumer end conferencing. See the link below about the new Samsung Radvision venture.

http://www.radvision.com/Products/Video-Products/Desktop-Video-Communications/SCOPIA-VC240/default.htm

We shoulnt forget the importance of face to face meetings and experiences but video conferencing is set to change the way we communicate. Information links are cheap and oil is expensive.

Don't you just love the way everything is falling like dominos at the moment? I mean it's almost too weird the way the worlds changing.

Sorry for rambling but i hope its informative!

Matt

Matt Collins

I need to apologise for the crappy grammar in the first paragraph. It should read:

In response to your question here is the link to the 3D telepresence solution from Sony. It's a plasma screen that's projected upwards into a sort of booth. Although simple it is really effective. I have seen this product in action and it currently retails for about £40,000. The effect is really something special, you do kinda forget that it's a video conference. You don't need glasses to view either.

Thanks,

Matt

Charly

Problem with Video conferencing is that you can´t say anything off the record or can talk about something else during lunch which in my opinion is the most important reason for a conference. Also the feeling is different. Seeing a picture in a museum is so different from seeing it in the classroom even if the screen shows it better (likely to be true in a few years)

GK

Charly,

Your 'off the record' point is equally applicable to the use of a telephone.

Everyone who is actually using Telepresence and other VC tools for business interactions is giving it stunning reviews.

Charly

Telephone is one to one and became mainstream in a time were not every call could be stored for economic reasons.
Video conferencing is many to many and you claim is now becoming mainstream. A time where hard disk storage is cheap enough to store every call a company makes. Storage and the more than 2 persons is the reason why off the record doesn't work that well with video conferencing.

This is not to say that video conferencing will not be a success but it won't be life changing

GK

Charly,

Conference calls on the telephone are already 'many to many'.

It appears that you are not actually using telepresence on a daily basis. Virtually anyone who does says that it is life-changing.

Charly

But the great majority of telephone calls are one to one.

GK

But the most important calls (such as earnings announcements) are with dozens or even hundreds of listeners/participants.

Email is also stored permanently, but businesses adapted to email completely.

Matt Collins

GK,

Did you take a look at those links? Any thoughts?

M

GK

Matt Collins,

How big is Tandberg, in terms of employees, revenue, and market share? Their HQ is in Norway, correct?

Any thoughts on Cisco acquiring Tandberg down the line?

Matt Collins

GK,

Please find the Tandberg Q4 results:

http://www.tandberg.com/collateral/ir/qr_2008_q4.pdf

I'm not sure about employee numbers but they have a head office in Norway and other big office's in New York and London. They really are moving forward and delivering some high quality products.

As far as take over is concerened i'm not sure about Cisco. There have been rumours this year about Tanberg being taken over by an investment firm called Silver Lake. I'm not sure if youve heard of them but they are quite a big investor in high end tech. If they added Tandberg to thier portfolio it would be quite a formidable line up.

Link: http://www.silverlake.com/partners/content.php?page=investments

As far as i'm concerned Tandberg are definitely one to watch in the next few years. They are showing huge market growth and have the product portfolio to back it up. I should also mention their telepresence solution retails at about £400,000. Equally matched to that of its competitors.

You should also read this:

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=161447

It has a few more details about Tandberg as a company.

I'm intrigued as to why you asked if Cisco would acquire them down the line? Personally i think they might eventually overtake Cisco.

M

GK

Matt,

But if Tandberg is a public company (on the Oslo exchange), why would Silver Lake take them over? To go private?

Matt Collins

GK,

I decided not to keep spamming your comments section so I created a blog with my thoughts about this matter. Please give it a read and tell me what you think.

http://communicationsfuture.blogspot.com/

M

GK

Matt,

But why would Tandberg go for a private buyout, if it is already public and growing quickly?

Matt Collins

GK,

I hope you read my blog on the subject. Which explains why Silver Lake would want to proceed.

As far as Tandberg are concerned i think Silver Lake are offering them more than the company is actually worth. It's aweird one though.

What are your thoughts?

M

GK

Matt,

I think Tandberg being acquired by a larger company is a better idea.

Regarding standards/interoperability, when will the various systems from HP, Cisco, and others interoperate? Without interoperation, it won't really be the killer ap that slashes business travel.

Matt Collins

GK,

Interop between video conferencing systems is already a golden rule between manufacturers. You might get the odd codec that doesn't play nice with another brand but it is very rare.

Interop between Telepresence systems is another kettle of fish. Companies are making too much money selling bespoke systems. Maybe when people ask for it they will make it happen.

I'm not sure if your familiar with telepresence but in essence all they consist of is:

-3 screens
-3 standard codecs (one for each screen)
-one 'Telepresence server'

The server stitches the 3 codecs images together and sends the media down the pipe to the far end. It then displays the appropriate codecs image on the appropriate screen at the far end.

As far as i'm aware they still use H.323 for communications so all that needs to be done as far as interop is concerend is to make the servers play nice. The problem arises because each manufacturer has a different way of laying out the room and cameras etc.

As far as the killer ap is concerned it will be video conferencing just maybe not in the form that we think of it. It will be bundled into a complete package. Unified communications is DEFINITELY the way things are heading.

See Cisco Unified Comms: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8Lq9X0Qv94

Microsoft also: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKqlv3FQbmg&feature=fvw

I already showed you Tandbergs offerings. This is the future my friend.

M

Charly

Email is an improved version of the letter and letters were already stored so it doesn't need a mental changes.


Airlines would love telepresence. People don't mind commuting by plane if they only need to be in the office ones a week

Matt Collins

GK,

It's been a while since we last spoke. As ever you were right about Tandberg. They have just been taken over my Cisco.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091001-703718.html

Cheers,

Matt

GK

Matt,

I was right about that (7 weeks in advance), wasn't I?

I guess that is why I am The Futurist.

-GK

Become a Alpha Male

The world is getting closer every day. People who was far away are now becoming closer and closer every day. Teleconferencing has been and is the waive of the future. I get excited with the prospect that everyone will soon have the capability to see someone while you're talking to them.

The comments to this entry are closed.