On October 23, 2009, I predicted that the US would have two further recessions, one starting in 2011 and another in 2017 or thereabouts. It appears that the first prediction has come true, as the US is in the process of entering a recession as of now in late 2011.
The reasons I gave in the original article where based on the negative effect of tax increases. While the tax increases in question have been pushed out to 2013, other causes, mainly a recession in Europe and an industrial slowdown in China, have combined to push the US into a 2011 recession nonetheless. This recession, however, may be relatively shallow and brief, as many sectors that caused the 2008-09 recession, namely financials and construction, are still 60-75% below their 2007 levels and simply do not have enough room to fall by the same degree.
However, I would also like to change a statement in the prior article. I had stated that housing cannot fully correct until the Fed Funds rate is at least 3%. It is now apparent that the Fed Funds rate may not go above 3% for a very long time, on account of the Technosponge, so instead I would modify the concept to say that housing cannot bottom until the median Baby Boomer is 70 years old, which will be in 2025. That is correct - US housing prices will not bottom until 2025. Longtime readers may recall that I called the Housing Bubble way back in April of 2006 and predicted a 20-year slump, back when it was considered blasphemy to utter such a thing.
Furthermore, I would like to reiterate that even when this recession ends, the economic recovery will be weak, just like it was after the 2008-09 recession, and a large part of this is due to The Misandry Bubble. There will not be a strong economic recovery without a direct and ferocious confrontation of the misandry that currently pervades the US government, and hence socioeconomic medium.
Lastly, while the next recession is estimated for 2017, I can no longer guarantee that the entire period after the current recession will be an expansionary period all the way until 2017. There may yet be another recession between this one and the 2017 recession as well.
Update (2/7/12) : It appears that this economic contraction was very brief, despite being sharp enough for the ^vix to rise to 48 (a level higher than reached in many recessions). It may be too brief for the NBER to classify as a recession. More updates to follow.