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Hemlock

Lurking a little bit, but still enjoying the discussion on this site.
FYI - Ray Kurzweil has a short article supporting UBI on his Accerating Intelligence blog @ KrzweilAI.net
-Hemlock

fatcat

Hi KG,
It is a good start. However, while watching the TV show I realised how many concepts you have to convey on that short time frame. The notion of an accelerating economy. Then you have to show why the money supply has to grow with the economy, then the fact that money supply has to grow exponentially following or even frontrunning the rate of the economic growth. And then the fact that we can actually tap into that growing supply. I might be missing a couple of concepts here

fatcat

And just to counter your theory the FED has raised to r today...

Kartik Gada

fatcat,

It is not a counter, the Fed is pushing us to the brink of crisis. They are raising rates when they should have stayed at 0% and kept QE permanent.

Raising rates negates the QE by other countries, putting the world further behind than they need to be. Hence the likelihood of a crisis soon.

computer_guy524

What are your thoughts on Bitcoin? Will it become more popular as a result of rising rates for USD?

Kartik Gada

cg524,

That probably won't be a factor for Bitcoin... Overall, a cryptocurrency has to have a reason for being, and not being backed by a central bank and military prevents wide adoption..

fatcat

Hi Kartik,
i forgot to put the sarcasm tags. I am pretty sure that if Hillary had won the FED would be much more careful on raising the interest rates.

On the other hand it could turn out that ATOM will find another source of liquidity either by accelerating the speed of money turnover or by by some derivative schemes that can monetize the sequestered wealth.

Kartik Gada

fatcat,

On the other hand it could turn out that ATOM will find another source of liquidity either by accelerating the speed of money turnover or by by some derivative schemes that can monetize the sequestered wealth.

Yes, that is certainly true; I just concluded teaching a class at Stanford about exactly that. If anything, there is some very limited evidence of the ATOM trying to force out a few drops from even more exotic sources... But there is no way that derivatives can generate the $200B/month and rising requirement.

Thanks for mentioning that as an alternative source. Very few could come up with that idea given how many different subjects one would have to know about.

But under the current program, the US Fed is negating a portion of the $200B/month that the RoW is doing, even as the $200B/month level continues to fall below the trendline of required easing.... US Nominal GDP remains barely above 3% growth (should be 6-7%, which the US has not seen since the late 1990s)...

fatcat

I have just stumbled upon an article that illustrates how the mainstream economists can't understand why the inflation is so low. Ironically one of the proposed deflating factors is the drop in cell phone prices and plans.
http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2017/06/13/mystery-economy-inflation-federal-reserve-000458
It is almost verbatim what you have predicted a couple of years ago. And yet the interest rates were raised late week...

fatcat

And that's truly remarkable. To not only capture the general trend but even to hit some details

Kartik Gada

fatcat,

Thanks for that. Note that cellphone monthly service fees, unlike hardware, seemed quite resistant to ATOM price declines (they replaced landlines, after all), but now even that is succumbing.

Remember that they are increasing interest rates *and* unwinding the existing QE. This is going to end badly unless the RoW ramps up to compensate...

Kartik Gada

fatcat (and others),

The author of that article, Danny Vinik, can be reached here :
dvinik@politico.com

I am writing to him, but if some of you can too, that would be great. Then we have a greater chance for more exposure..

It is time for some activism.

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