Cisco's HD Video Conferencing System - A Predicted Innovation

On August 22, 2006, I wrote an article titled Terrorism, Oil, Globalization, and the Impact of Computing.  The article described how four seemingly unrelated forces had emerged in the last few years to create a quadruple inflection point that unleashed massive new market dynamics.  Take a moment to go back and read that article. 

Just 3 weeks later, Google responded exactly to the market needs described in the article by adding immersive travel content into Google Earth, enabling users to have a moderately immersive experience of any location in the world, from the comfort of their own homes. 

But the first article also described another segment of this market :

While the life blood of business is the firm handshake, face-to-face meeting, and slick presentation, the quadruple inflection point above might just permanently elevate the bar that determines which meetings warrant the risks, costs, and hassle of business travel when there are technologies that can enable many of the same interactions.  While these technologies are only poor substitutes now, improved display quality, bandwidth, and software capabilities will greatly increase their utility.

And sure enough, on October 23, or just 2 months after the original article here on The Futurist, Cisco has announced their 'TelePresence' HD video conferencing system, which is a huge advancement over contemporary videoconference technologies.  It consists of three HD screens where conference participants are displayed in life-sized images. 

While the optimal experience requires both parties to have the system, limiting the opportunities for it's use in the near future, as more corporations adopt the system, using it becomes a routine practice in an increasing number of corporate settings.  Corporations will be able to save a decent portion of time and cost of employee business travel, and redeploy those savings into R&D.  Cisco itself expects to reduce business travel by 20%, saving $100 million per year.  If each of the Fortune Global 500 corporations adopted it, they would save anywhere from $20 to $80 Billion per year. 

The full system with three screens, cameras, and high-speed networking equipment costs $300,000.  However, almost all of the components of the system are full member technologies of the Impact of Computing, and hence the same system is bound to cost under $50,000 by 2011, and perhaps much less.  Cisco expects the market to reach $1 billion in annual revenue by 2011, which would amount to 20,000 units per year.  Eventually, prices for a single screen version (currently $80,000) might reach just $2000 by 2015, making them common household items, allowing more people to work from home and untethering them from living in expensive geographies against their preference. 

Two substantial innovations from Google and Cisco have emerged in just two months since the original article.  It is fascinating to watch the modern innovation economy adapt so rapidly to a new market need.  There will be much more to marvel over in the coming months and years.

Update (2/20/07) : A slideshow from BusinessWeek has more pictures.

Comments

[Badboy Recovered]

God I love this blog.

Why you only have about 100,000 hits a year is weird.

Ive been a member of EU referendum since they only had 500 hits a day. A little while back they had over 1 million in like a month. - Just keep it up - you'll get your just reward.

Saw this commercial just the other day and it was amazing. And to think where the internet was just a few years back.

I remember "The Phantom Menace" trailer in 99 and it was 2 inches by 2 inches. Shit quality!

And at the time it was high tech!

[Ethan]

I just sort of stumbled upon your website while i was bored on the internet. I started skimming through the article, and I was very interested in what you had to say, i think the reason i like your opinions, and the information that you provide is because, it is one of the few things that i am strongly intrested in, The Future. I just thought that i would let you know that as a 17 year old high school senior, i can't get enough of your website.

[GK]

Badboy Recovered,

Thanks for the encouragement. The low traffic is due to the infrequency of posts. But my subject matter is about longer articles, rather than daily news updates, so tht may continue to be true.

Ethan,

Thanks. I envy how much exciting innovation you will see while you are still young. When I was in college (1991-94), there was no World Wide Web.

[Ethan]

If it isn't a problem, there are some questions id like to ask you. Some things id like to know your opinion on. Also some questions about college classes you took?

[TimF]

HP and Dreamworks have been selling similar technology since late 2005. Cisco may be better positioned to make it successful, but it ain't new.

[Robert]

Thanks for the article. Let me share to you too an article on conference phone.

[James]

You are describe above really great communication about video conferencing.

[bobe_lagan]

I just sort of stumbled upon your website while i was bored on the internet. I started skimming through the article, and I was very interested in what you had to say, i think the reason i like your opinions, and the information that you provide is because, it is one of the few things that i am strongly intrested in, The Future. I just thought that i would let you know that as a 17 year old high school senior, i can't get enough of your website.

[Steve M]

That's really a smart and quick sloution for video conferencing, without much efforts and time.
http://www.sony-conferencing.com/

[karen]

Makes sense... branchingout in technology for Cisco's business is the building block for Cisco’s future growth and competitive edge.

[Acomplia]

This is gonna huge, i just cant belive it that i am standing at a great blog of my life, i am really glad to have my comment here in very decent topic. thanks to webmaster.