Batteries Set to Advance, Finally

 The Economist has a great article on the history and near-future outlook for battery technology. Batteries have scarcely improved in the last century, and there have been too many false starts for a seasoned observer to get his hopes up too easily.  But this chart of battery capacity by unit weight, in particular, is something I have been seeking for a long time.  It vindicates my belief that lithium-ion technology is improving at a rate far faster than traditional nickel batteries (that have scarcely improved at all in the last half-century).  Note, importantly, that if we join the multiple curves, we see a strong indication of the classic accelerating technology exponential curve.  This time we know it's for real. 

This is exciting on multiple levels, because it opens to door to not just mainsteam electical vehicles in the next decade, but to a variety of wearable electronic devices, 20-30 hour laptop batteries, household robotics, and other applications that have not yet been imagined. 

Future projections are usually over-optimistic, you say?  Let's also not forget Stanford University's nanowire research to increase Lithium-ion battery capacity, which was wide acclaimed as among the most important scientific breakthroughs of 2007. 

Related :

A Future Timeline for Energy

A Future Timeline for Automobiles

Why I Want Oil to Hit $120 per Barrel

Comments

[Saul Wall]

It is about time. If this acceleration is sustained or even reverts to a good upward yet linear trend, it would be incredible. If ultra-capacitors and the ability to merge them with batteries also advance quickly you could see an avalanche of innovation being released. It is hard to imagine how many ideas are sitting in blueprint limbo because the inability to cram enough power into a small enough space makes them unworkable.

[zyndryl]

Anyone hear of Europositron's aluminum battery? I can't tell if it holds actual promise or if its a fraud.

http://www.europositron.com/en/techniques.html

"Electric car of General Motors, EV 1 uses 736kg batteries giving max. range 145 km without recharge. A battery of 60 kg made with Europositron technology allows EV 1 max. range 870 km without recharge."

[Jesse]

Wasn't that same article in their tech survey three or four years ago?

[GK]

The same chart, but not the same article. This article cites events that occurred in 2007.

[Sam]

Color me skeptical. When I was in engineering school in the late 70's, electric cars were the rage as the coming thing to save us from the then-current oil crisis. Now as I near retirement, electric cars are again all the rage, with breathless proponents wetting themselves over the Tesla or the Volt. When I can get in an electric car and drive 500 miles in a day at freeway speeds, I may change my mind. Until then, well, color me skeptical.

[GK]

Sam,

See the 'Future Timeline for Automobiles' link above.

For what you indicate to be achieved in a purely electric vehicle, that will be possible sometime between 2017 and 2025 (note that you did not stipulate a price or that it has to be a 4-door Sedan). For your criteria to be achieved by a plug-in hybrid vehicle (which still uses gasoline, but much less), it could be as soon as 2011.

[Sam]

GK,
I didn't mean to come across as some sort of a Luddite. I just get impatient with the endless reporting of all these technological breakthroughs that never seen to make it into the real world. I will become enthused about Nanosolar, for instance, when their products are on the shelves of the local Home Depot, at a price I can afford. I guess that is why this blog is called the Futurist.

[GK]

Sam,

Yes. Plug-in hybrid cars are a much more certain bet than purely electric vehicles. Let's see what happens.

[Brian H]

The Tesla Roadster would have a range of 2000+ miles with nanowire batteries. Problem is finding a fat enough feed to fill them up in reasonable time; they can take it in fast, but at low voltages the amperage is prohibitive.

[Brian H]

Also, check out Toshiba's SCiB, just hitting the market this month.