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Ash

The article shows the kind of attitude that led to the financial crisis. Now America is not a Triple A credited country and has $14 Trillion in debt while China has a GDP of roughly $8 trillion and is owed a lot of America's money. It will overtake the US as a superpower economically of it continues at this rate, unless its overpopulation and environmental problems catch up with it, as it is a very unstable country. I also doubt that it will, in our lifetimes, overtake the EU or America culturally or socially. On a slightly different note China has another competitor. Many people agree that currently the EU is a superpower rivalling the US and China as it has a GDP higher than America's, is more culturally diverse, has faster advancing science and technology as well as having a far higher standard of living on the whole. China could well become a partial super power much like Russia was, but not a complete superpower like America is and the British Empire was.

The Futurist

Ash,

Much of your comment is factually inaccurate.

The article shows the kind of attitude that led to the financial crisis.

You must be referring to the EU, which is on the brink of a sovereign debt crisis that may end the Euro as a currency.

Many people agree that currently the EU is a superpower rivalling the US and China

The EU is not a country. It is a collection of 27 countries that has no supreme leader, no single army, and no single currency.

If you were honest, you would admit that the EU is in dire straits in the news every day, with many EU nations on the brink of default.

, is more culturally diverse, has faster advancing science and technology as well as having a far higher standard of living on the whole

FAR higher? Actually, the EU is much less prosperous than the US, and has an economy 22 years behind the US, as an EU report linked in the main article shows.

I see a lot of EU residents make claims that are blatantly false and quite ignorant, and I become less impressed with the EU every day. It seems the EU is so jealous of America that the EU cannot admit that its own problems are more severe.

Jared

Gotta agree with you Futurist in your response to Ash.

First off, the eurozone (the countries that share the euro) has a smaller combined GDP vs. the US. Its only when you throw in non euro countries like the UK that the EU stats become higher.

You also rightly point out that the EU is a collection of countries. We've seen just how incompetent Europe was to get the ball rolling on Libya. Its likely that had the US not gotten involved, that there would not have been a no fly zone orchestrated. So much for european influence without American support...

Also, Ash is completely wrong about innovation and science being better in europe. There is a brain drain from europe into the US specifically because the funding and overall climate is much better in America, along with the facilities. In fact, you dont hear much about technological innovations coming out of Europe, while you literally hear about all major breakthroughs in advancments coming out of America literally daily.

The US has the most super computers, the best colleges, the worlds largest economy, the greatest influence, the strongest military force known to man, and an abundance in natural resources. There is literally no country (or group of countries for that matter) that compare to the US.

Another thing about China...much of their growth is not sustainable. First off, their growth model depends on two things...fixed investment (ghost cities anyone?) which is creating a massive real-estate bubble just like Japans circa 1990s, and exports. Exports are on the decline, and have been for the past few years. They have yet to recover to the pre 2008 levels. And with the talk of a double dip recession looming, its not looking good for countries like China. Roubini and Chanos both believe that China is bound to experience and economic collapse pretty soon...Roubini predicted the real estate collapse in the west back in 2008...Chanos however is someone I listen to, especially when millions of his own money is at stake.

Jared

The Futurist, have you put any more thought into possibly updating this blog? I think with the current debacle happening in the EU, along with the prospects of a hard landing forming in China due to fixed investment and bad loans...your arguments are looking more and more realistic.

I think India has the best chance to challenge the US at some point. Their growth is far more sustainable than chinas...

The Futurist

Jared,

Maybe. I should point out that most of the people gloating about how the US would fail were Europeans. Look at their condition now.

Also note, however, that I introduced a caveat about US superpowerdom by 2030, in The Misandry Bubble. The US will remain a superpower only if it can unwind The Misandry Bubble in an orderly way (see that article for more).

Jared

First off, my hat is off to you Futurist. You have shown some pretty impressive insight and predictions to events. Your writing style is also unique and very eloquent.

As for Europe, I find it ironic really. Europeans really are full of themselves! The Euro as we know it is all but finished. Its likely that we will see a breakup and collapse of the current eurozone. What we are seeing now is only just the beginning to a bigger, more systemic problem in europe.

The US will play a significant role for the foreseeable future, whereas europe is anticipated to continue its gradual decline. (according to the latest HSBC Report, the top two nations will be China and the US in that order. With China barely edging out the US.)

I am well aware of the misandry bubble, and I am all for battling it to its end. The "pussy on a pedestal" probably summerises western societies best. The idea that we can have equality is preposterous. Not from a sexist point, but from a realistic standpoint. Equality does not exist, and never has. This idea that men have to do more to hamper their own success in the name of "equality" goes against our very human nature. How do you enforce something that goes against nature without suffering consequences?

Clement Ortiz

...our American constitutions is what makes us the most exceptional country in the world thus making this country is still the most desirable place to live as their home.

daniel

Btw i think "Misandry bubble" is pretty good stuff.

Rufus Fields

This funny statement seems rather uninformed: "From the telephone and airplane over a century ago, America has been the engine of almost all technological progress."

Most of the great inventions of the 20th century stem from Germany, which until 1965 had more science Nobel Prizes than any other nation (including the US).

And as of 2008 the GDP of the EU was equivalent to the GDP of US and China combined.

And sure, the US can wage wars against third world countries, but it cannot control at all the other nuclear powers, especially Russia and China. So much for being "the only superpower".

The Futurist

Rufus Fields,

The EU is not a country. I am amazed that people still insist that the EU is a country.

The EU is a loose collection of 27 countries that does not have a premier head of state, a unified military, or even a single currency across all 27 countries.

So much for being "the only superpower".

You did not comprehend the article. If having nuclear weapons is the sole criteria of being a superpower, as you claim, then Pakistan and North Korea would be superpowers too.

Your jealous anti-Americanism is tired and ignorant, and your points are already refuted by the original article. The funniest part is how many Europeans are ignorant of the broader world (thinking the EU is a sole country).

Rufus Fields

So much wrong with this article - I don't even know where to start.

1. Technology: What a ridiculous statement: "From the telephone and airplane over a century ago, America has been the engine of almost all technological progress." Most of the great inventions of the 20th century actually stem from Germany, which until 1965 had more science Nobel Prizes than any other nation, including the US. When measuring Nobel Prizes by country of birth, Germany was ahead even until 1975.

2. Economy: As of 2008 (when this article was written) the GDP of the EU was still equivalent to the GDP of US and China combined. And the expectation of when China will overtake the US has rapidly come down from 2040 (the old Goldman Sachs prediction) to 2020. In terms of PPP, China already may be ahead, according to some sources (Economist, May 2012).

3. GDP per capita: the US is only number 14, behind 7 EU countries (source: IMF 2011). You claim: "in per capita GDP, the US surpasses any other country that has more than 10 million people". Nonsense - the following are richer than the US and have more than 10m people: Australia, Canada, Netherlands. Before The Wall came down, West Germany also was ahead of the US.

4. Your per capita GDP chart actually is a PPP chart - you conveniently switch between PPP and real GDP, obviously choosing whatever makes the US look better. Not convincing!

5. Entertainment: The world's most successful movie industry in terms of tickets sold is India's, not America's.

6. Military: while the US is the only nation spending trillions on conventional wars against third world countries, it isn't even able to quickly finish (let alone win) those wars (Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan). "Dominance" is something else! More importantly, the US is totally unable to control the other nuclear powers, especially Russia and China. So much for being "the only superpower" :-)

RF

The Futurist

Rufus Fields,

Your silly 'points' were already rebutted earlier :

http://www.singularity2050.com/2008/06/why-the-us-will-still-be-the-only-superpower-in-2030-v20.html?cid=6a00d83452455969e2016302fa351d970d#comment-6a00d83452455969e2016302fa351d970d

US GDP per capita, PPP, is the highest of any country with over 10 million people, as you can check anywhere.

Plus, as you refuse to admit, the EU is not a country. It does not have a single currency, a single military, or even a single political system. The ineptitude of even the Eurozone (a subset of the EU) during the PIIGS crisis exposes the frailty of this loose collection of states.

As always, your comments are more about seething envy, and indoctrination by the European media, more than anything else.

Rufus Fields

There are so many misleading and self-aggrandizing statements in this article - I don't even know where to start.

1. Technology: What a ridiculous statement: "From the telephone and airplane over a century ago, America has been the engine of almost all technological progress." Most of the great inventions of the 20th century actually stem from Germany, which until 1965 had more science Nobel Prizes than any other nation, including the US. When measuring Nobel Prizes by country of birth, Germany was ahead even until 1975.

2. Economy: As of 2008 (when this article was written) the GDP of the EU was still equivalent to the GDP of US and China combined. And the expectation of when China will overtake the US has rapidly come down from 2040 (Goldman Sachs prediction of 2006) to 2020. In terms of PPP, China already may be ahead, according to some sources (Economist, May 2012).

3. GDP per capita: the US is number 14, behind 7 EU countries (source: IMF 2011). You claim: "in per capita GDP, the US surpasses any other country that has more than 10 million people". Nonsense - the following are richer than the US and have more than 10m people: Australia, Canada, Netherlands. Before The Wall came down, West Germany also was ahead of the US.

4. Your per capita GDP chart actually is a PPP chart - you conveniently switch between PPP and real GDP, obviously choosing whatever makes the US look better. Not convincing.

5. Entertainment: India (not the US) has the world's most successful movie industry in terms of tickets sold.

6. Military: while the US is indeed the only nation spending trillions on conventional wars against third world countries, it isn't even able to quickly finish (let alone win) those wars (Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan). "Dominance" is something else. More importantly, the US is totally unable to control the other nuclear powers, especially China and Russia (which could wipe out the planet 10 times if it wanted to). So much for being "the only superpower" :-)

RF

Rufus Fields

I am re-posting variants of this comment because it seems to show up only in temporary links such as
http://www.singularity2050.com/2008/06/why-the-us-will-still-be-the-only-superpower-in-2030-v20.html?cid=6a00d83452455969e2014e5f933a1a970c#comment-6a00d83452455969e2014e5f933a1a970c
but not under the original link:
http://www.singularity2050.com/2008/06/why-the-us-will-still-be-the-only-superpower-in-2030-v20.html
Some flaw in the software?


There are so many misleading and self-aggrandizing statements in this article - I don't even know where to start.

1. Technology. You claim: "From the telephone and airplane over a century ago, America has been the engine of almost all technological progress." But most of the great inventions of the 20th century actually stem from Germany, which until 1965 had more science Nobel Prizes than any other nation, including the US. When measuring Nobel Prizes by country of birth, Germany was ahead even until 1975.

2. Economy. Instead of consistently using GDP either nominal or by PPP, you keep switching between PPP and real GDP, conveniently choosing whatever makes the US look better. When comparing the US to China, you use real GDP, because in terms of PPP, China already may be ahead of the US, according to some sources (Economist, May 2012). However, when it comes to GDP per capita, you switch to PPP, to make the US look better in comparison to all those European nations that are richer in terms of real GDP: here the US is number 14, behind 8 European countries (source: IMF 2011). You claim: "in per capita GDP, the US surpasses any other country that has more than 10 million people". But the following countries with over 10m people are richer than the US in terms of real GDP: Australia, Canada, Netherlands. Before The Wall came down, West Germany also was ahead of the US.

2a. As of 2008 (when this article was written), EU GDP was equivalent to the GDP of US and China combined. Within a few years, the expectation of when China will overtake the US (and soon afterwards the EU) by real GDP has rapidly come down from 2040 (Goldman Sachs prediction of 2006) to 2020.

3. Entertainment. India (not the US) has the world's most successful movie industry in terms of tickets sold.

4. Military. While the US is indeed the only nation spending trillions on conventional wars against third world countries, it isn't even able to quickly finish--let alone win--those wars (Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan). "Dominance" is something else. More importantly, the US is totally unable to control the other nuclear powers, especially China and Russia (which could wipe out the planet 10 times if it wanted to). So much for being "the only superpower" :-)

RF

mojo

mr. Futurist you are Indian. right, because one thing you wrote badly wrong about film industry of china. How come you think indian film industry is better than china. Indian film is big only in india with movies release every second with very low quality. chinese movies are far ahead in terms of technology. yes, they are small in term of film production. Well in terms of film production, india is larger than even hollywood. But profit and quality Bollywood is a big shit. Big, big hollywood movie companies and actors are start joining with chinese film industry. I think you know that, but you are so desperate to proof yourself what you are writing is true. Well, currently there are lots of americans who need desperately this type of article and you nailed it. Enjoy your victory. But history doesn't follow anyone.

The Futurist

mojo,

I am an American, and the topic of discussion is American dominance in films vs. lack of Chinese presence.

You are a fool who needs to erect a strawman since you cannot debate the original point of the article.

Sridhar

mojo

don't know what you smoke dude, but I would like some. Chinese film industry is almost non-existent whereas Indian films are watched in almost all countries of Asia, european countires, South America, Russia, US and UK.... where are the chinese movies?? I haven't even heard one of them?

Sridhar

The Futurist,although you like to blame everyone for being "anti-american" your "silly" points are laughable at best...

US is a bankrupted state and it is a FACT. No amount of moaning and crying would change that.US although a military power,spends a lot more on it's military than the next 26 countries combined, which,it will have to reduce, so your label of "best" military,may not last very long. The last decade itself has proven what a sham "american exceptionalism" really is, the fact is , Mr. Futurist, american exceptionalism existed because there was no one to compete with US in after the end of WW2 till the mid 2000s, only recently have countries like China,India, Russia have started to challenge western stupidity and hegemony and it's hypocrisy on the world stage.Being a "proud" american doesn't compensate for being stupid and overly optimistic.China has grown about 5 times it's GDP in the last decade, from 1.5 trillion in 1999 to about 8 trillion now. India has grown 4 times and Russia is coming back on the world stage, so all your hues and cries of american superiority sound very shallow. The truth is overconfidence has killed american economy, and that is exactly what might also kill any hopes of recovering. So keep blabbering about american superiority when we all know it simply is a hogwash

The Futurist

Sridhar,

You simply repeat tired old cliches without providing any statistical backing. I notice you cannot refute any of the actual points in the article.

This is typical of Indians who do not have a well-rounded education and can only regurgitate lowest-common-denominator lines that they have memorized.

You are out of your league, kid.

skilaki

Do you still believe the US will be a superpower in 2030?

skilaki

You still believe the US will be the only superpower by 2030? I would like to see an update on your thoughts as I think we will have declined significantly by then. I believe we will see a societal and economic collapse before 2030.

Anonymous

Not to mention other contenders don't even educate all of their citizens

Patriot

Hmm, interesting article.

Patriot

But I must say, the major problem is that you do not seem to understand much of the world in general, unfortunately. And of course, much of America as well.

1. Having a big economy does not mean anything nowadays, as the U.S. national debt is out of control, and not to mention many of U.S. cities are bankrupting one by one, starting with Detroit (But then again, this article was written like 6 years ago, so I guess you could not have seen it coming, but I would've). And also, if the Japanese or the Chinese choose to dump the U.S. Dollar, because they believe it is worthless anymore, then practically that is when the U.S. economy ends. It is that simply fragile. It's just the Japanese and the Chinese are not doing it, since they believe the U.S. is still a huge market. If they no longer see it that way, then know that the fate of America is all in the hands of the Japanese and the Chinese. Pretty sad, don't you think? Quite a superpower there, hmm?

2. Military. Big military, so? How does that help the American people in general? Not to mention the U.S. is right now too broke to even do anything about the Middle-Eastern problems (The problems that were caused by the United States). And St. Louis' police are armed like military forces, and the city is collapsing as we speak. Now let me ask you, what good is a big military, and how good is it when it is utterly meaningless for majority of the American people? Not to mention all those good weapons are totally useless without war funding?

3. Brands

Coca-Cola, Nike, McDonalds, Citigroup, Xerox, Microsoft, or Google. Oh please, are you serious? You practically pointed out all the major U.S. companies that have made huge marketing mistakes or are subject to controversies. Coca-Cola, McDonald's, they have the reputation that no one wants to have, unhealthy, junk food/soft drink makers. And Microsoft kept making trash products that no one wants, such as Surface tablet, Windows 8, Xbox One, Windows Phone and practically Microsoft's influence is only decreasing. And Google? Seriously?
On the other hand, the Europeans have covered 70% of the luxury brand market of the entire world. Just google it if you can not believe it. There are, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Aston Martin, Rolls-Royce, Omega, Bentley, Rolex, LVMH, Hermes, Porsche, Audi, Bugatti, Ferrari, Lamborghini, and the name just continues. On the other hand, the American luxury brands....well, I guess there are Cadillac and Lincoln. But Lincoln is a total fail as a brand right now, and Cadillac is trying hard, but still not as recognized as the European luxury brands, at all. Who goes out and says "Oh, I wish I had a Cadillac" instead of saying "I wish I had a Porsche, BMW, Ferrari or Lamborghini"?

4. Having major universities also means absolutely nothing if the education system from kindergarten to highschool is absolutely terrible in the world standard. Go watch a Youtube video Finland Phenomenon, which is a Harvard professor's documentary on Finland's education system. And Germany has no major universities ranked on top 50 universities I believe, but who is doing great economically right now? Germany. Far better than the U.S. can ever imagine. And how many university graduates get a decent job in the U.S. nowadays by the way? If you think an "overpriced", "overrated" university education is something to be proud of, then you practically have no clue what a "good" education is.

5. Science. In terms of scientific department, I have to say America is great. No argument there. Except the majority of Americans can not even afford to go to hospitals.

6. Also quite a good point. I have to say, how many would want to move to China? Instead of the U.S.? The United States still remains to be one of the greatest countries in the world, but really, I can not exactly imagine many people wishing to have a thing called "Chinese dream" and such.

7. Entertainment. OK, this is rather debatable. If you mean to say all those horrible Hollywood movies and Justin Bieber songs are something to be proud of, then I have to say no, America does not lead in this. But I agree if you mean to say America leads "low level" entertainment stuff. I mean, you will nowadays see more and more young Americans reading Japanese manga or watching anime instead of something like Superman and such American comics. How successful are the American comics in other countries? Not much success there. The world prefers Japanese manga/anime, including the Americans themselves.

8. Accomplishments. Well, Moon landing stuff is great, but then this was back in the 50's. Can you tell me what America has achieved in the 21st century? Other than accumulating debt that is uncontrollable, having tons and tons of bankrupting cities, rising unemployment rate everywhere (Did you know that right now 90 million Americans are not working? Just google it), etc.

9. It is simply a matter of perception. Many countries thank the Americans for donating. No one really cares if the U.S. donated more or not. I mean, the U.S. is broke right now. The world should know that fact if they actually expect the Americans to donate more.

10. Democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan, huh? I guess you were ignorant back then, but I wonder if you can tell me the same thing today. I really hope you watch the news on this matter.

And you are complaining about people bringing up slavery that ended 140 years ago, but you bring up the moon landing stuff that is from 50 years ago? Contradiction?


And nowadays, no one respects the U.S. at all. Who exactly respects? The European Union led by Germany? China? South Korea? Japan? Russia?


And in the 21st century, which is the era of globalism, the European Union is practically leading the world in terms of education, luxury products, quality of life, etc.

And what does America have nowadays? Tell me.

The Futurist

Patriot,

And in the 21st century, which is the era of globalism, the European Union is practically leading the world in terms of education, luxury products, quality of life, etc.

You can't be serious. The EU suffers from virtually zero economic growth, very high youth unemployment, and periodic debt crises.

The rest of your points range from slightly wrong to very wrong, but it you think the EU is doing better than the US, you have no clue (and the EU is not a country, but is rather a collection of 27 countries that cannot function as a cohesive unit).

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