The Next Big Thing in Entertainment, A Half-Time Update

On April 1, 2006, I wrote a detailed article on the revolutionary changes that were to occur in the concept of home entertainment by 2012 (see Part I and Part II of the article).  Now, in 2009, half of the time within the six-year span between the original article and the prediction has elapsed.  Of course, given the exponential nature of progress, much more happens within the second half of any prediction horizon relative to the first half. 

The prediction issued in 2006 was:

Video Gaming (which will no longer be called this) will become a form of entertainment so widely and deeply partaken in that it will reduce the time spent on watching network television to half of what it is (in 2006), by 2012.

The basis of the prediction was detailed in various points from the original article, which in combination would lead to the outcome of the prediction.  The progress as of 2009 around these points is as follows :

1) Video game graphics continue to improve : Note the progress of graphics at 10-year intervals starting from 1976.  Projecting the same trend, 2012 will feature many games with graphics that rival that of CGI films, which itself can be charted by comparing Pixar's 'Toy Story' from 1995 to 'Up' from 2009.  See this demonstration from the 2009 game 'Heavy Rain', which arguably exceeds the graphical quality of many CGI films from the 1990s.   

The number of polygons per square inch on the screen is a technology that is closely tied to The Impact of Computing, and can only rise steadily.  The 'uncanny valley' is a hurdle that designers and animators will take a couple of years to overcome, but overcoming this barrier is inevitable as well. 

2) Flat-screen HDTVs reach commodity prices : This has already happened, and prices will continue to drop so that by 2012, 50-inch sets with high resolution will be under $1000.  A thin television is important, as it clears the room to allow more space for the movement of the player.  A large size and high resolution are equally important, in order to create an immersive visual experience. 

We are rapidly trending towards LED and Organic LED (OLED) technologies that will enable TVs to be less than one centimeter thick, with ultra-high resolution. 

3) Speech and motion recognition as control technologies : When the original article was written on April 1, 2006, the Nintendo Wii was not yet available in the market.  But as of June 2009, 50 million units of the Wii have sold, and many of these customers did not own any game console prior to the Wii. 

The traditional handheld controllers are very limited in this regard, despite being used by hundreds of millions of users for three decades.  If the interaction that a user can have with a game is more natural, the game becomes more immersive to the human senses.  See this demonstration from Microsoft for their 'Project Natal' interface technology, due for release in 2010. 

Furthermore, haptic technologies have made great strides, as seen in the demonstration videos over here.  Needless to say, the possibilities are vast. 

4) More people are migrating away from television, and towards games :  Television viewership is plummeting, particularly among the under-50 audience, as projected in the original 2006 article.  Fewer and fewer television programs of any quality are being produced, as creative talent continues to leak out of television network studios.  At the same time, World of Warcraft has 11 million subscribers, and as previously mentioned, the Wii has 50 million units in circulation. 

There are only so many hours of leisure available in a day, and Internet surfing, movies, and video games are all more compelling than the ever-declining quality of television offerings.  Children have already moved away from television, and the trend will creep up the age scale.

5) Some people can earn money through games : There are an increasing number of ways where avid players can earn real money from activities within a Game.  From trading of items to selling of characters, this market is estimated at over $1 billion in 2008, and is growing. Highly skilled players already earn thousands of dollars per year this way, and with more participants joining through more advanced VR experiences described above, this will attract a group of people who are able to earn a full-time living through these VR worlds.  This will become a viable form of entrepreneurship, just like eBay and Google Ads support entrepreneurial ecosystems today. 

Taking all 5 of these points in combination, the original 2006 prediction appears to be on track.  By 2012, hours spent on television will be half of what they were in 2006, with sports and major live events being the only forms of programming that retain their audience. 

Overall, the prediction seems to be well on track.  Disruptive technologies are in the pipeline, and there is plenty of time for each of these technologies to combine into unprecedented new applications.  Let us see what the second half of the time interval, between now and 2012, delivers. 

Comments

[Greg]

A short rubuttal to your posit about declining TV viewing can be found on page four of the article you site in support of TV viewership declining:

"For all the hand-wringing about how new media are sapping television’s audience, the average viewer of online video in April watched fewer than eight minutes a day. By contrast, the average household has its TV on for eight hours and 14 minutes daily. That’s a record. (One that should make all of us rear back in horror, but that’s another story.)"

Now that is interesting, because I certainly feeeel like I am watching less TV and I certainly feeeeel less connected to the networks.

What do you make of that paragraph?

[Charly]

A lot of TV watching is tuning out. Gaming is to involved for that so i can't see how gaming will be the great consumer of TV time.

[GK]

Charly,

See the link for the Microsoft Project Natal video.

Gaming is already eating into TV time a lot, so you haven't kept up with the times.

[Charly]

TV will loose IMHO a lot of time, some of that will go to gaming but not most. And in that i disagree with you.

[Hucbald]

I'm fifty now - okay, fifty-one - and I started playing video games with the original Pong on a Timex-Sinclair back around 1980. Games held my interest through arcade games like Galaga and Centipede, but then I quit playing them entirely after my undergraduate years. I'd rather play one of my guitars or ride one of my motorcycles. Call me old school, but real experiences trump virtual experiences for me, to the point that I don't bother with the virtual world at all anymore. Now, when something like a Holodeck comes along, you can wake me from carbon freeze.

I do however see a trend line between the playing of video games and the creation of art and music that seems to be closing, and that will certainly lead to new kinds of virtual musical instruments that allow heretofore impossible modes of musical expression. THAT I find interesting. Just trying to rack up a high score? Not really.

Those kinds of things are at the toy level already on the iPhone, but if Apple's touch pad device becomes reality, they could go from toy to serious instrument in a heartbeat.

[Bart]

Two words: holographic television. That's the next big tech breakthrough I'm looking for.

[ray little]

I'd make an argument that "uncanny valley" has been crossed successfully at least in part in the recent Watchmen adaptation.
The motion capture character DR. MANHATTAN looked like a real actor in the scenes he played. In fact, while in close-up, the effect was even more persuasive. I simply at no time had any reaction to his character that took me out of the film as I had while watching Beowulf or Final Fantasy. The subtleties of his facial movements and skin textures were entirely convincing.

[Rick]

Over eight hours of TV a day, on average? Really? Think about that claim. That means the average TV is on for the equivalent of 4pm through midnight with no breaks. And while obviously during the weekday this is patent nonsense, it represents an average that I don't think simply leaving the thing on all weekend can overcome. Even if one were to split the viewing times into something a little less unreasonable, leaving it on from (say) 6am until 9, and then 7pm to midnight, that stretches my credulity to the breaking point. The claim demands that we accept the notion that every waking minute of someone's life, that they're not at work, they're watching TV.

No offense, but I think some "researcher" followed the so-called "43% rule" of statistics, and expected the rest of us to fall for it.

[GK]

I think that is 8 hours per day per household (which has 3 people). I don't think any single individual watches for that many hours, particularly if they are employed, or going to school, or shuttling their kids around.

[Charly]

Nielsen claims that the average American watches 5 hours of TV daily. I don't think this is believable in the 5 hours a day, sitting in chair, starring at the tube way but it is very believable in the TV is on while they do something else.

Watching is a misnomer. Present in a TV that is on time would be more correct even though a bit long.

[Matt Collins]

Hello,

I found your blog this morning after doing some reading on foresight.org. I have recently started a blog (no posts as yet) and everything I wanted to write about I see you have already written about.

This doesn't deter me from writing my own blog as I am from the UK and want to make a more UK specific blog. It does however excite me that there is someone out there with exactly the same opinions, views and predictions as me.

I have tried searching for who you are but I cannot find out anywhere. I would very much like to talk to you about everything really, so please contact me at: [email protected].

If you don't reply I will still visit this blog regularly as it's excellent!

Thanks,

Matt

[GK]

Matt,

Thanks for your support and readership.

My identity is semi-secret, but feel free to comment here on any of the current or past articles. I see all comments, even on articles that are old. We can have a dialog on any of these subjects here at any time.

[Matt Collins]

GK,

Thanks for your reply, I respect your semi-secret identity. I can't find any references to people with the initials GK so it remains a mystery. (i wouldn't be surprised if you were Bill Joy or someone)

I felt compelled to ask because of how similar my idea for a blog was to your own, including the content. I will comment on some of the posts as soon as I get some more time (the weekend).

Thanks again for your reply and please check my blog out at some point. http://explainingthefuture.blogspot.com/

Cheers,

Matt

[Margaret]

I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

Margaret

http://racingonlinegames.net

[JAM]

GK - what do you think of the fifth horseman?

[GK]

JAM,

I think highly of him.

[JAM]

I am impressed both with your blog (I'm reading all the archives right now) and the fifth horseman's intelligence. If only you two could combine forces and write a blog about a subject dear to all of our hearts. ;)

[GK]

JAM,

Well, there are only so many hours in a day. Plus, I have my professional reputation to consider as well.

[JAM]

> Well, there are only so many hours in a day. Plus, I have my professional reputation to consider as well.

I am in an identical position and understand fully.

I do like the title the linked blog... though it does suggest skills to learn once you've long left The Slow Zone and entered The Transcend. ;)

[Matt Collins]

GK,

This link back up your claim that the talent pool is migrating from TV to games. Or at least it shows progress...

http://www.joystiq.com/2009/07/10/liverpool-wants-to-build-games-academy/