Recessions vs. Depressions

It is time for an economics lesson that most actual professors of economics will never deliver, because the contradiction in what I am about to explain is often not visible to those immersed within the orthodoxy of their field.

We often hear of 'recessions' as small events and 'depressions' as major events, however the two are defined in a very apples-to-oranges way, that is about to become exposed as we are entering a period that does not fit within either.

A recession only counts the period of the decline, but not the period that it takes for the economy to climb back to the previous high water mark.

A depression counts not only the decline but also the period it takes to return to the high water mark.  

Thus, recessions are defined by a definition that is incomplete and deceptive for not accounting for whether the recovery is rapid or slow, while depressions have a more accurate and complete definition.  The governments of the US and other nations have gotten away with this since almost every recovery out of a recession since 1948 was rapid enough that this flaw was not noticed.  But no longer.

The last recession was deemed by the NBER to have ended in June 2009.  However, note this chart from Calculated risk (click to enlarge), which indicates that payroll employment will take several more years to reach its high water mark from before the recession, far longer than any prior recession.  That we may be heading into another recession now extends this process even longer.  

Now, about depressions, there are some myths that have to be corrected.  Some depressions are shallow but very long (like the 'Long Depression' from 1873-96), while others are very deep but shorter.  Naturally, when the term 'depression' arises, most people think of the most recent one, which was the Great Depression from 1929-39, which a few people still alive today are old enough to remember.  However, a closer look at the Great Depression reveals that the sharp downturn that started in 1929 ended in 1933, and that from 1934 onwards, there was rapid improvement.  For all the 'Grapes of Wrath' imagery, anyone who managed to survive until 1934 saw continuous and persistent improvement in economic conditions from the deep bottom. 

Now, if we measure this period by the standards that recessions are measured by, there was a steep recession from 1929-33, followed by a recovery, and a much smaller recession in 1937-38.  The two recessions would seem unrelated, and the entire 1929-39 period would not be combined into one event.  Clearly, the failure to recapture the 1929 high water mark is the determinant of the depression classification lasting until 1939.  

Will the present period from 2008 to ~2017(?) be classified as a shallow depression?  Perhaps, but this will not be declared such until several years after it is over.  Rather, the proper way to assess this economic episode is to measure its deviation from the long-term exponential trendline, and not for the US, but rather in relation to World GDP.  

Since the start of 2008, US nominal GDP has grown a mere 7%, while a combination of differences in inflation and real GDP growth has ensured that the nominal $US GDP of China has grown 99% and India 60% (source : IMF).  Never in the last 140+ years has the GDP of the US lagged so much in relation to any other large economies, and shrank so much as a percentage of total world GDP.  If the US were to measure itself based on the rate at which other large countries are gaining ground, then this is the worst period since the Great Depression. Europe, as usual, is doing even worse than the US.  

This leads to the longer-term assessment, which is that perhaps we are in a midst of seeing Asia correct to a historically normal percentage of world GDP.  As this chart from The Economist shows (click to enlarge), at no time before 1820 was India + China less than 45% of world GDP on a PPP basis, and this chart ends in 2008, before most of the aforementioned India-China surge that I discussed earlier.  While India began to decline in 1700, China was at a very high point as recently as 1820.  Perhaps the rapid gains that India and China are seeing now is merely a reversion back to historical norms established over 5000 years, where these two nations were always at least 45% of world GDP.  If that is the case, the 1820-2020 period was an atypical 200-year golden era for the 'West'.  Indeed, the major European powers have already shrunk below any relative size they have been since 1500.  The US, of course, is a nation that did not exist for most of the period this chart covers, and thus may not shrink away the way that Europe has, and despite a classification of being part of the 'West' (a grouping Japan is also often shoehorned into), may align closer to Asia due to sheer gravitional pull.  

Since economic growth is exponential and accelerating, we now live in an age when it is possible to have such a large deviation from the trendline, while still experiencing minimal absolute growth.  This may not be called a 'depression' according to the way this was defined in the 20th century, but for the US it is a departure of a similar magnitude as the 1930s.  

 

Related :

A Future Timeline for Economics

Economic Growth is Exponential and Accelerating 

 

Comments

[Frog Leg]

"Never in the last 140+ years has the GDP of the US lagged so much in relation to any other large economies, and shrank so much as a percentage of total world GDP."

Not true. In the "Long Recession" period, both Germany and the UK experienced rapid growth. I'm not sure if the gap is exactly the same, but it was certainly comparable.

[The Futurist]

Frog leg,

Actually, that is not true. See here :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Depression#Course_of_the_depression

[jeffolie]

BEST EVER. This post should be read by anyone with adequate financial skills and knowledges.

I have been describing our economy as a "regular depression" for average Americans and not a recession for average Americans for years.

For example, my jeffolie 2011 predictions posted on Jan 1st included:

"... 2011 jeffolie predictions

SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. 50 California cities have ‘crash taxes’ charging to respond to car incidents plus ambulance charges. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise over 10%. College Tuition will rise 5 to 15%. Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise. Rents will rise as demand will increase because the rate of evict/repossessing house owners will speed up forcing families to rent that currently have not been paying their mortgages. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline as saving become exhausted because of the end of jobless benefits for those exceeding 99 weeks grows. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline for those still owning their homes because house prices will continue to decline. Food Stamp use will make new records every period. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2011 outside of their home equity. Screwflation is my top 2011 topic because its 2011 increase impacts the most Americans even while joblessness will grow on a percentage basis.

more ....

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[RVT]

Can China's numbers be trusted? I find it hard to believe that China's economy has grown by roughly 20% per year for the past four years.

[Jared]

RVT, I have to agree with you. In 2009, 65% of Chinas GDP was based on fixed investments. Basically, China achieves its high growth via stimulus from the central government. (well, actually local governments, the central gov just tells the banks to keep lending despite the fact that the loans arent performing/are going bad.) So what happens if the construction stops in China? China basically folds.

The stimulus is the growth. And now that exports are tanking, China is ever more reliant on stimulus to achieve growth. Now, factor in inflation, and debt(both of which being much higher than the CCP lets on) and you could argue that China really isn't growing at all. Chinas economy is all an illusion imo. They just know how to massage/torture numbers better than anyone else.

[Jared]

Also, is it not true that China adds its GDP up much differently than we do here in the west? They actually include the entire profits of major multi-national companies like APPLE into their GDP figures which further inflates them.

So while I do agree with the premise of the original content of the article, I do question Chinas numbers. Also, India is third world, and we all know that third world economies grow at a quicker rate than developed ones. Especially with outsourcing. Globalization has hurt the US economy to varying degrees. During the 20 century, we didn't have much competition like we do now.

[The Futurist]

RVT,

All true, but the devaluation of Western currencies has saved China and elevated their nominal GDP. The size of their economy in US$ has indeed grown that much, unless the IMF and World bank are wrong.

Jared,

and you could argue that China really isn't growing at all.

I wouldn't go that far. Their consumption of commodities of every possible type, is consistent with a 100% US$ growth in 4 years.

[Geoman]

What I find facinating is the comparison between 1991, 2001, and today. Gone are the short sharp shock type of recessions. We now have prolonged run-downs that take progressively longer to pull out of.

I might make the argument that goverment fiscal management is the cause of the change. What is a recession anyway? It is a loss of confidence in the markets, and a necessary correction when financials have run ahead of fundimentals. But today we try as hard as we can to fiscally manage our way out of these problems, to reduce the pain (and blame) for everyone. But are we also sowing the seeds of future failure? Fiscal corrections never get fully made, valuations never get fully adjusted? Minor problems in 1991 become serious problems in 2001, become economic mass destruction in 2011?

Consider, for example, unemployement insurance. Now set at an astonishing 99 weeks. It is well recognized by economists that lengthy unemployment insurance actually slows the reset of the economy, since you tie up labor waiting for jobs that may never come back, rather than switching that labor to more productive growth. Are we in fact doing exactly this with the whole economy, keeping alive weak financial and manufacturing companies (Freddie and Fannie, Solyndra, GM, Crysler, etc.)that will never grow their way out of the hole? Have we created a zombie economy? And do we save things now, but just make them even more vulnerable during the next downturn, one that will be even deeper and longer than the last?

[The Futurist]

Geoman,

What I find facinating is the comparison between 1991, 2001, and today. Gone are the short sharp shock type of recessions. We now have prolonged run-downs that take progressively longer to pull out of.

Excellent observation. The reason for this is that a service economy no longer is driven by inventory draw-down/ramp up, which was the nature of earlier recessions.

Also, the type of jobs created are different from ones destroyed, due to the higher rate of technological change. Construction jobs were destroyed, while new jobs are in high-tech, so it is not the same people who get the new jobs.

I might make the argument that goverment fiscal management is the cause of the change.

Yes. And feminism is the largest common theme in these government distortions. Currently, destroying 2 male jobs in the process of creating 1 female job is an acceptable cost for the Obama administration, which then complains that tax revenue fell short of their forecasts.

Remember that even with Solyndra, Fannie/Freddie, etc. a large part of the government involvement mandated the creation of female jobs that were not even needed. Dodd-Frank had all sorts of regulations that demanded female jobs despite no market need. The same goes for Obamacare.

This is old-fashioned vote-buying, but done within the one trojan horse that no one dares confront.

[The Futurist]

Have we created a zombie economy? And do we save things now, but just make them even more vulnerable during the next downturn, one that will be even deeper and longer than the last?

Hence, the market has to break the government bubble. This is happening in Europe now. This will happen in the US after two more credit downgrades by S&P (AA+ has to go to AA and finally AA-).

[Geoman]

Ah technology! The new jobs require additional training. As we specialize and technologize it takes ever longer to re-allocate labor to the new employment. At some point the remaining unemployed "detach" from the economy, that is to say it takes too long and too much money to retrain and employee, so they are simply...lost. If so then each recession would result in a dip, with a longer and longer recovery, until finally, there would never be a recovery. Permenent deflation and unemployment. Scary stuff.

I'd expect the absurd education bubble to take the blame - in many cases the cost of retraining can never be recouped. But perhaps there is a technology fix coming very soon there. Bring on the PKD teaching machines!

Heh, feminism and...every other "ism" as well, starting with environmentalism. Look at the Keystone XL pipeline, ANWR, Solyndra, and the gulf. The administration continually allocates capitol and labor on things that won't ever pay out, and away from things that bring actual value to the economic equation. Keynes said it didn't matter where you allocated goverment capitol as long as it was allocated, but of course that is utter rubbish. It matters enormously, especially if it is borrowed money.

[Jared]

The Futurist, thanks for the reply.

"I wouldn't go that far. Their consumption of commodities of every possible type, is consistent with a 100% US$ growth in 4 years."

The consumption of commodities in China, is driven by artificial demand from fixed investment. Again, the fixed investment represents the majority of the growth occurring China.

China grows today at the expense of tomorrow (and their environment). Even Hu Jintao has said that Chinas growth is not sustainable. Also, GDP figures coming out of China should always be scrutinized. I dont fault you for using their numbers, but I think the west makes a mistake whenever they take Chinas figures at face value.

[The Futurist]

Jared,

China could certainly slow from the current 9% into a cruise control of 7%.

But China's growth momentum is much more than India's at the moment, and China do 7% more easily than the US could do 2.5%, as things stand now.

The numbers I use are IMF and World Bank numbers, which must be vetted beyond what China simply provides.

[Jared]

The Futurist,

It is estimated that with just his year alone, half of all new loans in china are going to go bad, even the chinese government has acknowledged this, relating to local governments...

Lets assume that china is going to grow total credit this year between 30-40% of GDP, and half that debt is going to go bad, (which isn't a far off assumption) thats 15-20%, and say that the total recoveries on that are 50%... That roughly is 7.5-10%, that means that China on an after right off basis might not be growing at all. It may just simply be writing off some of this stuff in the future. So that is why I say its 9% growth today may actually be closer to zero as the debt comes to a head.

They've created a bubble economy similar to the one we saw out of 1980's Japan. They have a small consumer base (30% today, which is less than the year 2000) They depend on easy credit and exports to the west. I hardly call that a "sturdy" economic base to work with, much less brag about. So it isnt a far stretch to question the validity of the claims on Chinas growth. I find them to be highly susceptible. Also, they do not count GDP in the same way we do here in the west.

[jeffolie]

I still expect China's ruling class to maintain political control until their exporting markets collapse. Europe already is fracturing and still imports heavily by remaining China's #1 market with America #2. China's exporting employs a vast portion of its population that migrates and returns home on ocassions such as holidays ... about .4 billion workers. When .4 billion Chinese become jobless, then the incumbent Chinese ruling class will either morph or be replaced. I expect this to happen in 2014 and/or beyond. Europe's importing should implode first and then America's.

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[jeffolie]

Make your predictions for 2012.

Here are mine:

jeffolie predicts...Throw the bastards out of office gained ground against Establishment politicians in 2010, 2011 and will gain ground in 2012 .

jeffolie predicts...This repeats my old assertions made prior to Obama winning the 2008 primaries that Obama and the Democrats will lose enough power to fail after the 2010 elections to get anything done, continued political and economic gridlock.

jeffolie predicts...2010 food crisis that I made in 2008 will continues in 2012 for selective commodities such as grains with special attention to the seasonal trends for midyear tops from continuing weather issues.

jeffolie predicts...stock market gains to mid year which is the traditional seasonal high hence the long standing cliche of 'sell in May and go away' with Ben of the Fed providing stimulus.

jeffolie predicts...housing prices will continue going down because trends to rent continue.

jeffolie predicts…SCREWFLATION: everything the ‘average American family’ buys goes up in price and everything they own goes down in value. Taxes, fees, charges, special assessment districts from State, Local, etc governments will rise while services from them will decrease. Energy expenses for homes, cars, electricity will rise compounded by additional taxes and fees. Food prices will rise. Health care/insurance expenses will rise; College Tuition will rise; Mortgage/house payments will rise because interest rates will rise seasonally; Rents will rise. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline. The ‘average American family’ wealth will decline for those still owning their homes because house prices will continue to decline. Food Stamp use will make new records. I prefer screwflation over stagflation because of the regressive impact on middle and lower class families' standard of living and that they have no investments that rise with inflation or money printing and in fact usually have their wealth tied up in declining or negative home equity while the upper 20% of earners usually have investments that will rise in 2012 outside of their home equity.

jeffolie predicts… EUROPEAN CRISIS: the financial crisis will increase ‘austerity’ as retirement ages extend, services are privatized from higher paying government salaries to lower paying private jobs, benefits reduced. Bailouts of European banks will shift low valued debt from the banks to the IMF, FED, ECB, China via ‘swaps’, bond sales, loans, etc. Average European families will have their version of screwflation because their incomes will decline and expenses increase from governments privatizing.

jeffolie predicts…US STATES, CITIES, LOCAL AGENCIES CRISIS: major layoffs by the end of 2012, bills will not be paid, some bonds will default.

jeffolie predicts…INTEREST RATES: higher through summer.

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[jeffolie]

I expect major changes to politics and the economy to take 1st steps in 2013 with the honeymoon period normally happening for the more powerful and in control Republicans. But, the impact of the 2013 enactments most likely will happen in 2014 and/or beyond.

[jeffolie]

[modification to post]

I continue to predict 2012 will be political and economic deadlock.

2013 honeymoon, 2014+ impact

Immediately ahead for 2013 the planned January 'build in' budget cuts cascade from the 2012 end of year 'lame duck' Congress.

I expect major changes to domestic politics and the domestic economy to take 1st steps in 2013 with the honeymoon period normally happening for the more powerful and in control Republicans. But, the impact of the 2013 enactments most likely will happen in 2014 and/or beyond.

[jeffolie]

The better seasonal retail sales number arrive mid Feb which include the post Xmas sales. Once, the clearance sales finally remove the leftovers, then the hard decisions to cut stores begins to start the new retailers fiscal years which mostly start in Feb or March.

The FED also will watch for shrinking profit margins for the Xmas season to better gauge the consumers willingness to spend as opposed to hunker down with modest savings or reduce CC debt. So, I expect the FED to hold off on any new stimulus until March or later.

The Europeans kicked the can down the road a little and this additionally helped the FED gain waiting time before committing to new stimulus. The Greeks squeal like stuck pigs demanding a decision on a more comprehensive bailout which will not be forthcoming before March in my opinion. The ECB just started capping Italian rates at about 7% recently [u]( see: ' ECB Steps in as Italian Yields Hit 7%' http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203513604577144081994770326.html ) and showed thier policy to be one of 'containment' which if left in place for more than 12 months into the beginning of 2013 will shift the interest burden in Spain and Italian into a zone from which there will be no solution and only collapse in Europe[/u].

[The Futurist]

jeffolie,

I agree about the retail stores. The question is, what will happen to all the empty surplus storefronts, since eCommerce has ensured that there are not enough new occupants to fill up all the empty Borders and Circuit City locations.

[Geoman]

We fill it with anything that won't fit in a UPS box.

[RL]

Hey Futurist, how about a new article? On Dalrock you talked with rmaxd about IVF, etc. How about making a topic about your intensive experience with it in the valley?

[Anon]

awesome article as always

[jeffolie]

Fear vs Greed: less confident consumers but which ones (the upper class or the rest)?

Weighing the importance of consumers in a 70% consumer driven economy is tricky while the index jumps too much, volitile. For example, in August the collapse of the index to screaming recession lows was then followed by the biggest burst of SUV buying from the upper class consumers sustained over 4 months and starting in September.

The GM indicator

Long ago a stock guru made his bones by creating the GM indicator: as goes GM then so goes the stock market. Essentially, the sales of average cars to average Americans used to drive the economy, but used to is not now. Today, the upper class consumers decide if buying a new SUV or Crossover plus customers for extended cab pickups drive the new vehicle market. Ford, not GM now leads the pack. The average American does not buy a new vehicle, it takes too much of their income while they FEAR losing their jobs; hence, the below piece on consumer confidence samples the average consumer without separating the most likely to buy new vehicles.

The index used to be viewed with a benchmark of 100 which is no longer the most likely benchmark. Using today's new vehicle buyer and using the average consumer, the consumer confidence index should rightly be viewed for purposes of predicting new vehicle buying and driving the economy differently than the old benchmark of 100. The below piece does not evaluate who the current consumers, but past pieces show that as many or as large a percentage by the upper class, richer buyers as all the lower class buyers: a equally divided population of buyers of upper class buyers vs all the rest below.

Who is fearful vs who is confident

So, I conclude that observing both groups (a equally divided population of buyers of upper class buyers vs all the rest below) separate is important. The September and following 4 months of upper class new vehicle buying splurge was not mirrored by the other equally important group of the not upper class as buyers. The upper class buying was not enough to drive the whole economy into an expanding, thriving economy; rather, it dragged the economy into no better than an inventory rebuilding process which is unsustainable at best unless the upper class continues its splurge.

Gridlock

The economy is in economic gridlock, just above the breakeven point.

I am not surprised at all. In fact, I predicted this back in 2008 and never relented from my views that both 2011 and 2012 would be years of economic and political gridlock. Nothing serves as a better object than the below TRENDLINE OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE which remains an indicator consistently moving barely above the lows from 2008.

=============================

Consumer Confidence Takes an Unexpected Dive

By Doug Short January 31, 2012

The Latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through January 19th. The 61.1 reading is substantially below the consensus estimate of 67.0 reported by Briefing.com, which is the same as Briefing.com's own estimate. Are we seeing a reversal of the holiday optimism reflected in last month's 64.8 level (which was an upward revision from 64.5)?

Here is an excerpt from the Conference Board report.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "Consumer Confidence retreated in January, after large back-to-back gains in the final two months of 2011. Consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions turned more downbeat and is back to November 2011 levels. Regarding the short-term outlook, consumers are more upbeat about employment, but less optimistic about business conditions and their income prospects. Recent increases in gasoline prices may have consumers feeling a little less confident this month."

Consumers' appraisal of current conditions was less favorable in January. Those claiming business conditions are "good" decreased to 13.3 percent from 16.3 percent, while those stating business conditions are "bad" increased to 38.7 percent from 33.5 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also less positive. Those saying jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 6.1 percent from 6.6 percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" increased to 43.5 percent from 41.6 percent.

Consumers' short-term outlook was slightly weaker than it was last month. The proportion of consumers anticipating business conditions to improve over the next six months decreased to 16.6 percent from 16.8 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen increased to 15.1 percent from 13.4 percent. Consumers' outlook for the labor market, however, was moderately more favorable. Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased to 16.2 percent from 14.0 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs declined to 19.5 percent from 20.2 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes declined to 13.8 percent from 16.3 percent. [press release]

The Sobering Historical Context

Let's take a step back and put Lynn Franco's interpretation in a larger perspective. The table here shows the average consumer confidence levels for each of the five recessions during the history of this monthly data series, which dates from June 1977. The latest number is well above the bottom of the unprecedented trough in 2008, but it is well below the 69.4 average confidence level of recessionary months a full 32 months after the end of the Great Recession (based on the official call of the National Bureau of Economic Research).

The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end I have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The linear regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope clearly resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is probably a more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference. Today's reading of 61.1 is dramatically below the 81.3 of the current regression level (24.9% below, to be precise).

Click for a larger image

It is interesting that the consumer confidence pattern of the past 32 months following the NBER declared end to the recession is similar to the 36-month pattern following the 1990-1991 recession, although the current pattern has so far been at a lower confidence level. At an even higher level, there was also a two year period following the 2001 recession where confidence lagged. A common factor in all three cases is a "jobless recovery". To great extent Consumer Confidence is a proxy for unemployment problems. The rise in confidence in recent months is is concurrent with an improvement in the monthly unemployment numbers, although the January confidence report runs counter to the trend.

On a percentile basis, the latest reading is at the 15th percentile of all the monthly readings since the start of the monthly data series in June 1977 and at the 11th percentile of non-recessionary months.

For an additional perspective on consumer attitudes, see my post on the most recent Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Here is the chart from that post.

Click for a larger image

And finally, let's take a look at the correlation between consumer confidence and small business sentiment, the latter by way of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index. As the chart illustrates, the two have been closely correlated since the onset of the Financial Crisis.

Click for a larger image

The NFIB index has been less volatile than the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, but it has likewise remained depressed despite the official end to the recession in June 2009.

http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/up....dence-Index.php Report to Mod - Link to Post - Back to Top Logged

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[jeffolie]

I apologize ahead of time for posting this off topic item but I found it relevant to The Futurist's long standing subject of humans changing ...

Enhancing your memory by wires appears real with off the shelf surgery by skilled neurosurgents ... scientist fiction or art seems again to have preceded or directed this approach into creating better brain functions.

Implanting nerve stimulators into humans for medically acceptable reasons happens with off the self medically approved devices everyday. Applying this to enhance perfectly healthy humans with the purpose of ehancing normal brain functions to above normal or super capabilities seems likely to me in the near future.

The below piece focuses on enhancing memory in humans for medically valid reasons thus increasing the research in enhancing brains with wires.

" ... Deep brain stimulation involves the insertion of guide wires through the skull and into the brain, where they deliver electrical current to clusters of neurons .. ""... enhancing the mental capacities of people in perfect cognitive health ..." " ... this line of research already had piqued the interest of people with normal memory function who seek a little intellectual edge ... ' " ... The new results build on animal studies that found deep brain stimulation not only boosted activity in the brain's memory centers, but spurred the growth of new brain cells when those regions were damaged. The fact that the same technique improved memory performance in humans makes some researchers optimistic ... "

=============================

Study finds jolt to the brain boosts memory

Researchers hope the finding could lead to treatment of diseases such as Alzheimer's.

February 09, 2012|Melissa Healy

In an experiment likely to raise new hopes for those with memory-robbing diseases such as Alzheimer's, researchers have found that sending an electrical jolt to a part of the brain that plays a key role in memory improved people's ability to learn -- and remember -- their way across an unfamiliar landscape.

The study, conducted at UCLA and published in Thursday's edition of the New England Journal of Medicine, was small and highly preliminary, involving just seven patients with epilepsy. But deep brain stimulation helped all seven subjects -- including some who suffered memory impairment-- navigate faster and more accurately through a virtual town.

Since the treatment also gave a boost to subjects with no signs of dementia, the study is likely to reignite a simmering debate over the ethics of enhancing the mental capacities of people in perfect cognitive health, experts said.

The new results build on animal studies that found deep brain stimulation not only boosted activity in the brain's memory centers, but spurred the growth of new brain cells when those regions were damaged. The fact that the same technique improved memory performance in humans makes some researchers optimistic that it might be a way to block or reverse the destruction of brain cells in patients with Alzheimer's.

Though physicians are now able to diagnosis Alzheimer's disease earlier than ever -- sometimes years before memory lapses and other cognitive changes become evident -- they are still at a loss to alter the disease's progress.

Deep brain stimulation involves the insertion of guide wires through the skull and into the brain, where they deliver electrical current to clusters of neurons that no longer function properly. It is widely used in the treatment of Parkinson's disease, in which damage to regions of the brain's motor cortex cause tremors, rigidity and unsteady gait. About 90,000 Americans have had the battery-powered, stopwatch-sized devices implanted in their brains, and they often show marked improvement. But the neurostimulator has not been found to slow or block the progression of that disease.

The technique is also being used for patients with epilepsy, to disrupt the storm of electrical current in the brain that causes seizures. The patients who took part in the memory trial were candidates for this treatment, and in preparation for surgery they had electrical probes inserted in their brains -- giving researchers the opportunity to conduct their experiment.

The goal was to explore whether stimulation to two key memory regions of the brain would deliver improvement in cognition. With their heads immobilized, the patients had electrodes placed in their brains. Then they played a virtual game of taxi driver, learning their way through an imaginary town in order to reach six destinations.

While navigating the new landscape, the subjects sometimes got deep brain stimulation to one of two areas -- the hippocampus or an adjacent structure called the entorhinal cortex -- and other times got no neurostimulation at all.

The researchers found that when subjects' entorhinal region was stimulated while they navigated through the maze for the first time, they were speedier and more accurate in learning the way to certain destinations than when they explored a similar maze without stimulation.

For instance, subjects outlined routes to stores that were 64% shorter, on average, when the entorhinal cortex was stimulated compared with when it was not. When electrodes delivered stimulation directly to the hippocampus, some subjects improved their performance while others got worse.

Itzhak Fried, a UCLA neurosurgeon who worked on the study, called the hippocampus "the master organ of memory." But he said the greater improvements seen in the memories of patients who got stimulation to the adjacent entorhinal region suggested a new target for treating memory loss.

"The entorhinal cortex is a gateway into the hippocampus," Fried said. "If you are to consciously recollect incoming information, it needs to be processed here."

In an editorial accompanying the study, University of Toronto neurologist Sandra E. Black called the potential application of deep brain stimulation in the treatment of memory disorders "enticing."

And Dr. Maria Carrillo, scientific director of the Alzheimer's Assn., agreed that electrically stimulating the brain's memory centers may hold greater promise. But she cautioned that the complexity and breadth of destruction in Alzheimer's make it resistant to simple fixes.

"It's a little early to talk about deep brain stimulation as a treatment for Alzheimer's disease," she said. "But certainly it's tantalizing."

The study has many drawbacks beyond its small size, including the fact that participants did not have a uniform level of memory impairment and that the tests measured only spatial memory, not memory of faces, places and words, the researchers said.

Andres M. Lozano, a neurosurgeon at the University of Toronto who has conducted similar experiments in mice, said this line of research already had piqued the interest of people with normal memory function who seek a little intellectual edge.

"These are major ethical issues society will have to grapple with when the time comes," Lozano said.

"This opens up a Pandora's box."

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/feb/09/health/la-he-memory-enhancement-20120209

Read more: http://unlawflcombatnt.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=medical&action=display&thread=10256#ixzz1m6GoGtDj

[Transmillenium]

I have translated the Misandry Bubble on Spanish.

He traducido la Burbuja de la Misandria al Español.

[Nigel]

Interesting HBD reading list:

http://www.humanbiologicaldiversity.com/

[cipher]

The Futurist,

Thank you for describing both the historical and current contributions of China, India, America and Europe to world GDP. Fascinating stuff.

An American co-worker (female) of Portuguese descent once said to me "Portuguese men treat their women like crap". Perhaps this has something to do with Brazil's economic rise?

cipher

[The Futurist]

An American co-worker (female) of Portuguese descent once said to me "Portuguese men treat their women like crap".

Note that a woman who says this may actually be attracted to such behavior. They won't say it, of course, but their actions may indicate this. A 'nice guy' is quite revolting to women.

[Bill]

From your own chart, while the rule may have held last time it happened, on the three vripeous occasions in the last 10 years or so that GDP growth dipped below 2%, the US did not go into recession. Don't go looking for meltdown' with such glee, chaps!

[EARD]

Besides the inflation issue, as I noted here recletny, we have the population increase issue. Tracking GDP over time is not very useful when the population differs. From 2005 to 2010 our population grew 4.4%. Our GDP per person at Q4 2010 is therefore 4.3% less than it was at Q4 2005. That is part of the explanation of why the full "recovery" of the GDP is not associated with a full recovery of our buying power.I grow tired of agencies and economists posting misleading time-based statistics that don't correct for obviously relevant factors such as population and demographic changes.