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Other companies have done wireless updates but just don't tell anyone about it. Autopilot is also similar to features done in some mercedes cars.


It seems like the Model 3, to be released late 2017, early 2018 satisfies the prediction from 2006 of a 4 door sedan disrupting the mid priced car market. Do you know why the timeline is ~5 years later than the 2012-2013 timeline from the 2006 article ? Was it just the Great Recession slowing everything down ?

Kartik Gada


Do you know why the timeline is ~5 years later than the 2012-2013 timeline from the 2006 article ?

Part of it is Tesla overstating their timeline by a lot. But beyond Tesla, almost every other type of technological trend is behind schedule for a much more pervasive reason.

Read Chapter 4 of the ATOM, about how insufficient Nominal GDP has slowed the rate of technological progress down to 60-70% of its natural trendline.

There was not enough data at the time. But this is also why every one of Ray Kurzweil's predictions is consistently behind by the same 5-8 years (i.e. the last 16 years since 2000 has only had 10-11 years worth of progress).

Reversion of the technological rate of change to the trendline will happen, and the 2017 crisis will precipitate that.

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