A number of new telescopes are soon going to be entered into service, all of which are far more powerful than equivalent predecessors. This is fully expected by any longtime reader of The Futurist, for space-related articles have been a favorite theme here.
To begin, refer to the vintage 2006 article where I estimated telescope power to be rising at a compound annual rate of approximately 26%/year, although that is a trendline of a staircase with very large steps. This, coincidentally, is exactly the same rate at which computer graphics technology advances, which also happens to be the square root of Moore's Law's rate of progress. According to this timeline, a wave of powerful telescopes arriving now happens to be right on schedule. Secondly, refer to one of the very best articles on The Futurist, titled 'SETI and the Singularity', where the impact of increasing telescopic power is examined. The exponential increase in the detection of exoplanets (chart from Wikipedia), and the implications for the Drake Equation, are measured, with a major prediction about extraterrestrial life contained therein.
Building on that, in the ATOM e-book, I detail how accelerating technological progress has a major impact on space exploration. Contrary to a widely-repeated belief that space exploration has plateaued since the Apollo program, technology has ensure that quite the opposite is true. Exoplanet detection is now in the hundreds per year (and soon to be in the thousands), even as technologies such as 3D Printing in space and asteroid mining are poised to generate great wealth here on Earth. With space innovation no longer exclusively the domain of the US, costs have lowered through competition. India has launched a successful Mars orbiter at 1/10th the cost of equivalent US or Russian programs, which has been in operation for two years.
Related ATOM Chapters :
3. Technological Disruption is Pervasive and Deepening
12. The ATOM's Effect on the Final Frontier
My favorite cost curve is the price of putting 1kg into low earth orbit. Between SpaceX and Blue Origin I expect that curve to trend all the down to about 5x the cost of fuel, and maybe as low as 2-3x depending on how reliable they can make the rocket engines. At those prices you'll see an explosion in innovation as (1) new groups and institutions will enter the field of developing space hardware, and (2) even the groups that currently participate (such as militaries and government space programs) will be able to afford a more risk-taking approach to hardware development and deployment.
Posted by: Brock | August 29, 2016 at 06:51 AM
Brock,
Not just that, but since Artificial Intelligence does not need much mass to support it (unlike the mass of the human body, along with associated air, water, food, etc.), when advanced AI can fit easily within a 1 kg computer, then we can do a LOT in space.
Posted by: Kartik Gada | August 29, 2016 at 02:26 PM
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/astronomers-discover-potentially-habitable-exoplanets-orbiting-nearby-dwarf/story?id=45631477
right again!
Posted by: Stephen murray | February 23, 2017 at 01:16 AM
Thanks Stephen.
Check out the 'SETI and the Singularity' article from 2009 : http://www.singularity2050.com/2009/05/seti-and-the-singularity.html
Posted by: Kartik Gada | February 23, 2017 at 08:47 AM
I have of course read it over many times. Everyone gets that PCs and smartphones improve exponentially, but you have rightly shown that other less obvious things are also exponential, such as telescopes and space launches. Its still an exponential staircase, just with large steps.
would be nice to see your take on solar power and its rapid advance (Swansons law I believe?)
Posted by: Stephen murray | February 23, 2017 at 01:21 PM
Stephen,
Yes, Swanson's law is moving extremely quickly. After 30 years of exponential rises at levels too low to notice, PV now provides 2% of world electricity. It will take less time to go from 2% to 10% than it took to go from 0% to 2%.
http://www.singularity2050.com/2007/08/solar-energy-co.html
http://futurist.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83452455969e201b7c869eecd970b-pi
The thing about solar is that the sunniest parts of the world are the poorest. They can finally convert excessive sunlight into a natural resource (and not import fossil fuels for energy). Plus, major oil exporters like Saudi Arabia also get extreme sunlight, so will burn less oil on electricity.
Posted by: Kartik Gada | February 23, 2017 at 10:46 PM