« ATOM Award of the Month, February 2019 | Main | The Federal Reserve Continues to Get it Wrong »

Comments

Geoman

Good choice. Not to mention the world wide web would not exist without substantial memory improvements.

It is interesting to see that we are now a world where nothing is forgotten. It is not all to the good, especially as I see people damned for minor sins committed decades ago. No wonder teens today seem so neurotic.

Kartik Gada

Many capabilities of great value happened without any fanfare.

For example, anyone can send an email with a 10 MB attachment to, say, 10 recipients. The amount of storage needed suddenly rose 10x, but there is so much now that this capability is not a network and hard drive saturating practice.

But no one remembers when attachments become possible for emails. What was the exact day? Or even the exact year?

Similarly, if a .pdf is posted on a website and available for download (such as my AI report), if 1000 people download it, that is a huge amount of aggregate storage occupied in a one-to-many system that only became commoditized very recently.

Devang

Does the emergence of the cloud mean effectively unlimited storage? Or at the very least, no wastage of storage?

Many people can't even fill 10% of their desktop PC hard drives, while others buy expensive extra storage. This supply-demand mismatch, while not a huge deal, always seemed a bit wasteful.

HB

There are at least a few potential significant disruptors in the horizon regarding storage. One is three dimensional storage using current materials or similar. Another might be DNA. A few pounds of DNA can store more information than all currently available worldwide storage. The caveat when it comes to more specific predictions is, as always, that a true disruptor often does not appear in the horizon. It appears suddenly in ways virtually nobody expected.

Fatcat

A bit topic but this article maintained that the economic doubling will not be
accelerating. In the other hand it does similar analysis to the tends. https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/04/22/1960-the-year-the-singularity-was-cancelled/

Kartik Gada

Fatcat,

Thanks for that. I will read that in coming days.

But in general, issues like the problems between Nominal and Real GDP, as well as the greater accuracy of using asset value growth instead of GDP, appear to be relevant in this article as well.

Kartik Gada

Fatcat,

Ok, I have read it.

The problems with his conclusion are many of the items discussed in Chapters 2 and 4 of the ATOM publication.

i) Not seeing that too-low inflation crimps 'real' GDP, and that Nominal GDP would be more revealing.
ii) Not using per-capita numbers (and hence attributing economic growth to population growth).
iii) Not seeing that GDP captures technological change inaccurately ('more with more' rather than 'the same with less').
iv) Not looking at asset value growth in addition. Asset value growth, while not perfect, is a better reflection of economic progress than GDP (even Nominal GDP). Assets are, of course, even more concentrated at the top than income, but that, too, would bring more accuracy to that discussion.

Kartik Gada

HB,

Yes, DNA storage has high potential. Interestingly, 15 years ago, DNA was cited as a medium for computing, rather than storage. Perhaps, it might eventually serve as both.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Your Information

(Name and email address are required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)