Endings and Reincarnations

Today is exactly 15 years after the start of this website.  Since that time, just about every blog that was active then, has been discontinued, unless it is the blogger's full-time career now.   On top of that, futurism is a very exclusive niche, as surprisingly few people are curious about the future beyond superficial information.  However, the accelerating rate of change, and ever-growing size and power of the ATOM, mean that the trends we discuss here are appearing in more mainstream topics.  Among the many technological changes since then, that was an era of 4:3 screens instead of 16:9, and of blogging rather than social media (let alone video-based social media).  Even converting this website to 16:9 messed up the old articles, and when faced with a choice of reformatting all of them manually, or leaving them as is as a relic of their time, I chose the latter.  Note that the more recent ATOM publication is 16:9.  

A lot has come and gone in the elapsed 15 years.  Consider the case of Singularity University.  It began in 2009 on the reputation of Ray Kurzweil, who at the time was easily the most high-profile Futurist in the world, with a respectable track record of predictions.  However, detached from Kurzweil's direct involvement, the institution quickly migrated away from any actual futurism, and built itself around a model of low-tech, in-person learning, where a single one-week program costs $15,000 (which is even more expensive than nearby Stanford University).  A few famous critiques outline how that operation practices virtually none of what it preaches, and even this was before a spate of scandals did further damage to its reputation.

Hence, there is now a vacuum in this niche, even though the rate of change continues to rise, which naturally means more organic demand for futurism.  Furthermore, if the ATOM has enabled a medium that is more flexible, far reaching, and monetized to reach full maturity, it would be appropriate for me to produce content there, under simple ATOM principles (again, in contrast to Singularity University, which is in fact the whole point of embodying one's futurism).  High-traffic YouTubers have an income stream that is very ATOM-efficient in terms of taxes, location independence, affiliate marketing, and network effects among YouTubers.  This, combined with the structural decline in the university model of learning, as we often discuss here, makes the window of opportunity obvious.  

I believe I have the material here, as well as through my experience teaching at Stanford University and speaking at large conferences worldwide, to singlehandedly create the premier YouTube channel devoted to this subject.  Over the recent holiday period, I just brainstormed a list of video topics for which I already have 10-20 minutes of tight content in my head, and the list quickly grew to over 300 titles.  The list is a superset of what is written here, since there will be more current, mainstream topics interspersed along the way.  On YouTube, all existing content is either very simple and caters to average people, or is just a recording of an esoteric talk at a conference, and not made for YouTube.  The chasm in between is unpopulated.  The YouTube channel has a better chance of being synergistic with my other professional activities, which this website was not able to rise to, traffic-wise.  

This is one of those things where I am surprised and bit annoyed that this did not occur to me years sooner.  When this website began, I was 32, whereas now I am 47.  While YouTube wasn't established in 2006, suffice it to say that for video purposes, a 32-year-old is always going to be more telegenic than a 47-year-old.  Or at least I should have began in 2015 when I was writing the ATOM publication, or in early 2016 when I posted it.  Then again, almost all of the best instructional videos on YouTube about how to undertake each aspect of creating a channel all seem to have been posted in the last 12 months, and I might not have thought it was easy to do, until recently.  It is definitely not too late, certainly for this niche. 

My goals for the channel are simple.  Among those are that I would like to eventually reach 300,000 subscribers, and 1 million hours of cumulative view time.  There will be little traffic until after the first 100 videos are posted, after which traffic rises exponentially.  I will have to put in over a thousand hours of work, and $4000+ in sunk costs before seeing anything, but as this replaces many other activities, including a lot of to-and-from transit, perhaps the net is less.  

The other factor is the greater 'immortality' of video.  Since we expect a Technological Singularity in about ~41 years (give or take), a large body of video has a greater chance of still being watched by people around at that time, even if I am gone, and even if Google/YouTube is not the platform then.  I absolutely think it is essential that people at that time know who the early leaders in this subject were.  

I still have to learn the first thing about editing videos, which is necessary even for hiring other editors, but I am to begin uploading videos in February.  

The future of this website will be determined at a later date.  To keep comments active, Typepad charges $60/yr, which is trivial, but I have to see how relevant this website remains in relation to the YouTube channel.  The high-quality, page-length comments that some contribute are more suitable here than on YouTube.  

Let's see what happens.  I hope all readers over here migrate to the channel when I post the details of it.  

Until that time, see you in the future!

 

Comments

[Stephen Murray]

Best of success with this new project, will support anyway I can

[coronalover]

Youtube is heavy handed and arbitrary in its moderation and lies about its ToS. I have seen many channels which didn't violate their ToS getting purged just because some woke twitter users demanded it. Even non-political content which somehow pisses off the corporate overlords gets removed. Also their algorithms heavily prioritise corporate backed content and try to marginalise small independent content creators. Personally I would never spend so much time and effort building a youtube channel, except if it was for making the low quality, corporate sponsored content which is characteristic of modern youtube.

[al villalobos]

Follower since 2016- best wishes for your continued success. I will like and subscribe as soon as you are up and running. Although, as commenter "coronalover" mentions in another comment, please be sure to have a solid Plan B for when or if Youtube decides to fuck you over like it has so many others. Cheers!

[Kartik Gada]

Well, let's brainstorm this.

The moderation at YouTube is definitely arbitrary. But channels that obviously disagree with YouTube's political bent are sometimes still on there (like Dave Rubin).

My channel will not be political, except to the extent that the party more likely to be in favor of at least the QE side of ATOM concepts is Democrat, as I pointed out in Chapter 7 way back in 2016.

I looked through the journeys of many YouTubers. Among those that stood out is this one :

https://youtu.be/9vpwTxALZAs

The person started at the end of 2016, posted feverishly, and by the time of 2 Million subscribers and ~450 videos posted, was earning a lot. None of his content is very high-concept, nor did he have any built-in advantage. Now, the fact that his content is pretty mundane and caters to the masses may be the secret. I don't want to do that, but certain principles can be gleaned.

if it was for making the low quality, corporate sponsored content which is characteristic of modern youtube.

Why not high-quality, corporate-sponsored content? I am trying to make it synergistic with my other professional activities, but with futurism content and ATOM principles interspersed throughout. I certainly intend to partake in affiliate marketing and sponsorships.

'Plan B' : What should a 'Plan B' look like, beyond just having all of my own videos stored? Alternate sites like Vimeo or Dailymotion don't have any traction.

Inputs, shared experience, brainstorming, and what-ifs all welcome.

[Geoman]

Way too many channels produce "junk" food. That is they focus on getting a new video out each week, not in putting out anything worth watching. Way to many science channels have nothing to say, or just a bunch of empty opinions that don't stack up to anything.

The Tesla/Musk stuff is just the worst.

I think you could literally sit down, look at every single industry, and say, how will this be impacted by the ATOM? It makes your choice of topics nearly needless.

The other day I had a problem with some plumbing (long story). So I purchased, on-line, a small boroscope. Basically a tiny camera on the end of a long flexible tube. Connects to my phone wirelessly. Cost about $40. Using it a looked down my drain and figured out the problem and managed to solve it.

Now, a plumber (who I normally would have called) uses a $300 version of what I had, and charges around $75/hour, with a 2 hour minimum ($150). So I saved $110 (for this call out only) using a device that cost 10% of one he would have used.

So the ATOM is impacting plumbing.

And if it impacts plumbing, what isn't it impacting?

Anyway, good luck on your new venture, and if there is anything I can do to help (other than watch) let me know.

[Kartik Gada]

Geoman,

It is true that the algorithm incentivizes regularity and frequency of posting.

It is also about getting past 100 videos, after which the success is exponential.

But I would like to learn more (from 'coronalover' and others) about channels that got demonetized even if they were non-political, and otherwise respectable.

[Kartik Gada]

Geoman,

So I saved $110 (for this call out only) using a device that cost 10% of one he would have used.

Almost 75% savings overall, and that too from that one instance. If the device is used a second or third time, the savings pile up. Since the device is in the home, you will also be inclined to use it proactively in many drains, and will find problems long before they turn up. More savings of both money and time.

Similarly, the plumber himself can use the device and save money on what he bought, increasing his margins (or lowering his rate).

Little ATOM stories like that can be narrated on YouTube as a series, and tied to affiliate marketing if that device is sold on Amazon. That, too, is an ATOM monetization that is more direct than Adsense.

I think you could literally sit down, look at every single industry, and say, how will this be impacted by the ATOM? It makes your choice of topics nearly needless.

True, and that is just one of the themes of the channel. Companies in each industry featured might want a research report to validate their adoption of technologies, or want me to consult for their executives, or might sponsor my channel or a particular video. If the ATOM becomes a larger and larger share of the economy, more and more of this can arise.

Such a channel may not be on the chopping block for deplatforming either (although you never know).

[Drew]

Hi KG,

That you shared a blog with Imran's articles about gender relations is likely to generate complaints on your YouTube channel, even if you do not address gender relations there. Such are our times. I would go with your plan to have everything backed up so that if you are put on hold you can migrate elsewhere. Because of such issues, there are attempts to build YouTube alternatives, but none have the advertising and funding equivalents. As you are looking for engagement, self-hosted video may be the back-up, which will cost you money rather than make you money, but may be an entry point for you to sell your services.

[AL Villalobos]

Mr. Gada said"... but I have to see how relevant this website remains in relation to the YouTube channel. The high-quality, page-length comments that some contribute are more suitable here than on YouTube."

I agree that the Youtube comments section is no place for the thoughtful and considered posts that we enjoy here. Perhaps a minimal subscription fee to join this website? $15/yr? By all means keeps the comments open on youtube, but I think this would be the place to have more serious and in depth discussions as you suggested.

[Kartik Gada]

What are examples on non-political content being censored on YouTube?

Plus, do they give you 'community warnings', or do they just delete an entire channel one fine day?

Lastly, can't all the deplatformed creators, to the extent they can sift for the ones that did not violate the ToS, be unified into a class-action lawsuit, of the type that won huge judgements against big tobacco and PG&E?

[Geoman]

"What are examples on non-political content being censored on YouTube?"

Any mention of COVID19 will get you demonetized and/or censored. Can't even say it in passing - like "during the current COVID19 crises." It has to be referred to vaguely as "the problem" our "our current difficulty."

It's incredibly strange and Orwellian.

[Kartik Gada]

Geoman,

Any mention of COVID19 will get you demonetized and/or censored. Can't even say it in passing - like "during the current COVID19 crises." It has to be referred to vaguely as "the problem" our "our current difficulty."

Wow. I wonder why. As if it is not talked about in the normal news.

Plus, how do they check whether it was mentioned in passing in a video? By text in the comments?

[Kartik Gada]

Apparently, there are some number of Covid videos :

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=covid

So certain things are approved.

[Geoman]

I've seen several videos that use bizarre euphemisms. At first I thought they were just being cute about it. Then I realized something else was happening.

Youtube has classified the coronavirus as a “sensitive event,” and that henceforth all videos focused on the topic will be demonetized “until further notice.”

https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/4/21164553/youtube-coronavirus-demonetization-sensitive-subjects-advertising-guidelines-revenue

It's pretty insane.

[Geoman]

And they demonetize at the mere mention of it, as in "because of COVID19 restrictions, no new movies will be out...." But you seemingly are allowed to have a photo of something in the background that says COVID19.

But they don't demonetize favored bloggers and news sites. Just random people that aren't even directly discussing the virus.

[Dynamic]

Like someone said, the moderation is quite arbitrary on YouTube. Sure, there are people who talk about COVID, people who shared a platform with a manosphere star, etc. who have survived on YouTube, but there are others who have been censored (and they're a lot harder to find because they aren't there anymore). Not saying don't do it, but you need to ask yourself what you're going to do if YouTube censors you, and answer that question. Since there aren't any real alternatives to YouTube for videos ATM, your plan B needs to be something that's not video-based. Maybe use YouTube to promote yourself on other media (books, a new blog, something else)?

One personal observation that I'll mention is that, in terms of communicating information, videos are a fair bit slower than text. You can read a lot faster than someone can talk about something, and skimming etc. is a lot easier with text than a video. That shouldn't influence your decision but just something I'd mention.

Whatever you decide, best of luck with your new venture.

[Kartik Gada]

Hello Dynamic,

All true. But ultimately, there isn't really a 'backup' that is possible, since all income generated from the channel would be lost.

[Bas]

If you want to teach options and futurism related investment Udemy might be a good way to make at least some money with videos.

[Frank Crenshaw]

Do you think you'll live to see the technological singularity? Do you think longevity escape velocity will be reached before then?

[Kartik Gada]

Hello Frank,

I have been on record as saying that I don't think any exceptional extensions to longevity will happen any time soon. I have been saying this for years. I will revise this opinion only if and when I see a significant rise in the number of people crossing age 110, or if there is a visibly demonstrable age-reversal treatment on market that has enough credible testimonials, including people vlogging the
'before' and 'after' without bias.

But a number of people who thought we would be at Actuarial Escape Velocity by 2025 are obviously not going to be right.

This means that in order to reach the Singularity, one must be alive in 2062 (give or take).

[Drew]

Youtube is an interesting case of the interaction of finance and ATOM. “Unlimited Free” video isn’t viable yet, even with advertising. Unlike search, there isn’t yet a good matching of what people are looking for and the ads to provide. Especially, because the two can currently be opposite in video – a happybunny.com ad may pop up with a rabbit butchery demonstration. Google bought Youtube as a moat because they knew it would be popular, but didn’t know that it would take so long to find a way to be profitable. A declining cost to host videos and better ad matching will eventually meet up to be profitable, but the when and whether it might be left behind by other technologies are unknown.

[Kartik Gada]

Folks,

Note how Oil is in the $60s now. This speeds up both additional fracking as well as EV sales. Oil just cannot stay above $70 for any significant length of time, as decreed back in 2011.

Also note how world money-printing continues apace. No new inflation nonetheless.

YouTube : Filming has begun. Editing is still a learning curve. Uploads soon.

[Geoman]

The only thing that could screw the price of oil up is a serious war in the middle east, or banning fracking in the United States. Or perhaps canceling needed pipelines. But no one could possible be stupid enough to create the conditions for that...oh...never mind.

But you are correct, even if oil prices spike, the ATOM will simply attack that source of inefficiency.

This will be the year of the EV. The year when every single car manufacturer starts building and selling multiple models. And what starts this year, will accelerate in the next, and even more in 2023. By 2030, 50% of all cars sold in the U.S. will be EVs, the rest some form of hybrid. Given 40% of our oil goes to making gasoline, I can easily imagine a 20% decline in U.S. oil demand by 2030. That is a 1-2% decline in demand per year. That will produce an enormous and unrelenting downward pressure on prices.

And of course you have things like the RAV4 prime hitting the market, with an effective 94 MPG. I've estimated I would purchase around two tanks of gas per year driving it. In such a case, does it really matter to me any more if gas prices go up or down? My marginal costs are hardly anything.

One problem with the money printing - the money thus printed is being used so poorly in the economy, it's a shame. The efficiency of distribution...it's just painful to see what they are doing with it. They'd be better off giving it out as block grants to the states, and the states as block grants to the communities. Or just dropping it from helicopters.

[Kartik Gada]

Geoman,

Yes. EVs were 4.2% of world new car sales in 2020, and that too when oil was cheap. Now that oil is a bit higher, 2021 could easily see 6% or more. This creates the interesting situation of too many used ICE cars (models 2006-2020) relative to demand, and discount prices on used ICE cars.

ICE manufacturers have to scale back 2023 and 2024 model car production faster than they think (it is already too late for 2022 given component lead times), since used ICE cars up to 15 years older will suppress demand in this narrowing pipe.

One problem with the money printing - the money thus printed is being used so poorly in the economy, it's a shame. The efficiency of distribution...it's just painful to see what they are doing with it.

They could hardly devise a worse way to do it. It is analogous to putting two buckets four feet apart, and forcibly overflowing the first one (tech billionaires) in the hopes that some drops manage to splash into the second one (representing the bottom 85% of society).

They still can't bring themselves to transmit money directly to people, in an ATOM-DUES manner.

[Geoman]

I was wondering what your position was on the coming landlord crises.

Millions of low end landlords, those that own just one or two small properties, are skating on the edge of bankruptcy, because of eviction moratoriums. In, at most, a few months, those moratoriums will be lifted, and millions of people are getting tossed out for not paying rent. Those millions owe huge amounts of money in back rent that will never be paid, but will ruin their credit. And the landlords will likely never recover financially.

I see no way out of the mess that is going to be created. Even if the government steps in and pays off the back rent, the stain on the foolish renters credit will persist for years - would you rent to someone who didn't pay rent for six months at their last residence?

[Kartik Gada]

Geoman,

Yes, a number of small landlords are going to take heavy losses. The government trying to micromanage the economy always makes things worse.

This is another reason why ATOM DUES would have saved millions of livelihoods.

Today is exactly one year on from 3/15/2020, the Netscape Moment of Economics. $10T has been printed, and there is STILL no aberrant inflation. ATOM-DUES was the solution (and still is). Alas!

[Frank Crenshaw]

https://moores.samaltman.com/

What do you think of Sam Altman's proposal for dealing with mass unemployment due to automation?

[ClownPants]

As an alternative to youtube - your information would be readily useful to investors of all sorts. That is why I find interest in your articles. A platform like seeking alpha or similar would be where you could focus your efforts without worrying about being shut down arbitrarily. The account would basically create itself judging by your current content and leanings on this site, with very little change to your writing style. I have been reading for years, hope this helps you.