The Futurist

Carbonara

Observers have been waiting for carbon nanotubes, buckyballs, and graphene to transform the world for quite some time, and the wait has been longer than they expected.  Enthusiasts for this new miracle material had all but vanished.  Is this warranted?  Where does the state of innovation in various forms of carbon, that could yield ultra-strong, ultra-light materials and superfast computing really stand? 

CNET had an article just last month about the multiple disruptions that the various allotopes of carbon are about to make.  That is quite exciting, except that CNET also had a similar article in 2003.  Similarly, Ray Kurzweil extolled carbon nanotubes as a successor to silicon quite heavily in 1999, but not quite as much now, even though that supposed transition would be much closer to the present.  This does not mean that Kurzweil's estimation was in error, but rather that the technology was unexpectedly stagnant during the early 2000s.  So let us examine why there was such an interruption, and whether progress has since resumed.    

I wrote in 2009 about how we had undergone a multi-year nanotech winter, and how we were emerging from it in 2009.  As anticipated, carbon nanotubes are now finally lowering in price, and being produced at a scale that could start making an impact.  Sure enough, activity began to stir right as I predicted, and the 2010 Nobel Prize in physics has been awarded to research in graphene.  Just like CNETs article, Wired also has an article about the diverse applications that graphene could revolutionize.  Combining the two articles, we can summarize the core possibilities of carbon allotopes as follows :

Ultra-dense computing and storage : Graphene transistors smaller than 1 nanometer have been demonstrated.  Carbon allotopes could keep the exponential doubling of both computing and storage capacity going well into the 2030s. 

Carbon Fiber Vehicles : This lightweight, ultrastrong material can save vast amounts of fuel by reducing the weight of cars and aeroplanes.  While premium products such as the $6000 Trek Madone bicycles are already made from carbon fiber, greater volume is reducing prices and will soon make the average car much ligher than it is today, increasing fuel efficiency and reducing traffic fatalities. 

Energy Storage : Natural Gas is not only much cheaper than oil per unit of energy (oil would have to drop to about $30 to match current NG prices), but the supply of NG is more evenly distributed across the world than the oil supply.  The US alone has an enormous reserve of natural gas that could ensure total energy independence.  The main problem with NG is storage, which is the primary reason oil displacement is not happening rapidly.  But microporous carbon can effectively act as a sponge for natural gas, enabling safe and easy transport.  This could potentially change the entire energy map.

There are other applications beyond these core three, but suffice it to say, the allotopes of carbon can perform a greater variety of functions than any other material available to us today.  Watch for indications of carbon allotopes popping up in the strangest of places, and know that each emergence drives the cost down ever lower. 

Related :

Nanotechnology : Bubble, Bust,.....Boom?

Milli, Micro, Nano, Pico

Nanotechnology : Bubble, Bust, ....Boom?

All of us remember the dot-com bubble, the crippling bust that eventually was a correction of 80% from the peak, and the subsequent moderated recovery.  This was easy to notice as there were many publicly traded companies that could be tracked daily.

I believe that nanotechnology underwent a similar bubble, peaking in early 2005, and has been in a bust for the subsequent four years.  Allow me to elaborate.

By 2004, major publications were talking about nanotech as if it was about to surge.  Lux Capital was publishing a much-anticipated annual 'Nanotech Report'.  There was even a company by the name of NanoSys that was preparing for an IPO in 2004.  BusinessWeek even had an entire issue devoted to all things nanotech in February 2005.  We were supposed to get excited. 

But immediately after the BusinessWeek cover, everything seemed to go downhill.  Nanosys did not conduct an IPO, nor did any other company.  Lux Capital only published a much shorter report by 2006, and stopped altogether in 2007 and 2008.  No other major publication devoted an entire issue to the topic of nanotechnology.  Venture capital flowing to nanotech ventures dried up.  Most importantly, people stopped talking about nanotechnology altogether.  Not many people noticed this because they were too giddy about their home prices rising, but to me, this shriveling of nano-activity had uncanny parallels to prior technology slumps. 

The rock bottom was reached at the very end of 2008.  Regular readers will recall that on January 3, 2009, I noticed that MIT Technology Review conspicuously omitted a section titled 'The Year in Nanotech' among their year-end roundup of innovations for the outgoing year.  I could not help but wonder why they stopped producing a nanotech roundup altogether, and I subsequently concluded that we were in a multi-year nanotech winter, and that the MIT Technology Review omission marked the lowest point.

But there are signs that nanotech is on the brink of emerging from its chrysalis.  The university laboratories are humming again, promising to draw the genie out of its magic lamp.  In just the first 12 weeks of 2009, carbon nanotubes, after staying out of the news for years, have suddenly been making headlines.  Entire 'forests' of nanotubes are now being grown (image from MIT Tech Review) and can be used for a variety of previously unrelated applications.  Beyond this, there is suddenly activity in nanotube electronics, light-sensitive nanotubes, nanotube superbatteries, and even nanotube muscles that are as light as air, flexible as rubber, but stronger than steel.  And all this is just nanotubes.  Nanomedicine, nanoparticle glue, and nanosensors are also joining the party.  All this bodes well for the prospect of catching up to where we currently should be on the trendline of molecular engineering, and enabling us to build what was previously impossible. 

The recovery out of the four-year nanotech winter could not be happening at a better time.  Nanotech is thus set to be one of the four sectors of technology (the others being solar energy, surface computing, and wireless data) that pull the global economy into its next expansion starting in late 2009. 

Related :

Milli, Micro, Nano, Pico

Solar Power's Next 5 Game-Changing Technologies

I have written beffore about the reduction in price of solar energy, and how each succcessive price decline would deliver a new generation of adoption.  Now, we can examine some of the specfic technologies that are driving the race to affordability, and will enable solar energy to be one of the only candidate technologies to lead an economic recovery from the present downturn. 

Popular Mechanics has a roundup of five new areas of innovation in harnessing energy from the Sun.  All five promise to make solar energy competitive with the cheapest sources of fossil-fuel energy, and many of these five technologies could work in combination with each other.  The five technologies are the following :

 

Now, many of these technologies were invented before 2008, so this roundup does not alter the fact that 2008 was a year of very low technological innovation.  However, all these innovations bode very well for a tremendous boom in solar power starting around 2010.  Each technology has one or more startup companies mentioned in each section.  The industry consensus is that solar power becomes competitive with conventional sources of power generation by around 2011, varying by the local cost of electricity and the solar intensity of a particular region (i.e Arizona becomes cost-competitive for solar before British Columbia does).

The greatest benefits, however, will accrue to emerging markets.  Many poorer countries not only have electricity rates that are much more expensive than in the US, but these countries, being in more southern latitudes, receive greater solar intensity to begin with.  Breakeven in these markets arrives even sooner than it does for the wealthy countries at more northern latitudes.  Many villages in India, VietNam, Iraq, Egypt, and Indonesia will go from having no electricity to having photovoltaic electricity. 

Related :

Solar Energy Cost Curve

The Solar Revolution is Near

A Future Timeline for Energy

(crossposted on TechSector)

The Solar Revolution is Near

I have long been optimistic about Solar Energy (whether photovoltaic or thermal) becoming our largest energy source within a few decades.  Earlier articles on the subject include :

A Future Timeline for Energy

Solar Energy Cost Curve

Several recent events and developments have led me to reinforce this view.  First of all, consider this article from Scientific American, detailing a Solar timeline to 2050. The article is not even Singularity-aware, yet details many steps that will enable Solar energy to expand by orders of magnitude above the level that it is today.  Secondly, two of the most uniquely brilliant people alive today, Ray Kurzweil and Elon Musk (who I recently chatted with), have both provided compelling cases on why Solar will be our largest energy source by 2030.  Both Kurzweil and Musk reside in significantly different spheres, yet have arrived at the same prediction.

However, the third point is the one that I find to be the most compelling. There are a number of publicly traded companies selling solar energy products, many of which had IPOs in just the last three years.  Some of these companies, and their market capitalizations, are :

Now consider that the companies on this list alone amount to about $50 Billion in capitalization.  There are, additionally, many smaller companies not included on this list, many companies like Applied Materials (AMAT) and Cypress Semiconductor (CY) for which solar products comprise only a portion of their business, and large private companies like NanoSolar (which I have heavily profiled here) and SolFocus that may have valuations in the billions.  Thus, the market cap of the 'solar sector' is already between $60B and $100B, depending on what you include within the total.  This immense valuation has accumulated at a pace that has taken many casual observers by surprise.  A 2-year chart of some of the stocks listed above tells the story. 

While FirstSolar (FSLR) has been the brightest star, all the others have trounced the S&P500 to a degree that would put even Google or Apple to shame over this period.  Clearly, a dramatic ramp in Solar energy is about to make mainstream headlines very soon, even if the present valuations are too high. 

Is this a dot-com-like bubble?  Yes, in the near-term, it is.  However, after a sharp correction, the long term growth will resume for the companies that emerge as leaders.  I won't recommend a specific stock among this cluster just yet, as there are a wave of private companies with new technologies that could render any of these incumbents obsolete.  Specific company profiles will follow soon, but in the meantime, for more detail on the long-term trends in favor of Solar, refer to these additional articles of mine :

Why I Want Oil to Hit $120 per Barrel

Terrorism, Oil, Globalization, and the Impact of Computing

(crossposted on TechSector)

Nanohealing Material Heads to Market

I first wrote on October 14, 2006 about a liquid that quickly self-assembles into a solid gel upon contact with blood, sealing the wound quickly.  At that time, it appeared that military use of this type of substance was 8-10 years away from 2006.  However, it appears that progress has accelerated, and we are much closer to market availability than it initially appeared.  An update on the progress is posted this week in MIT Technology Review.

The material consists of naturally occurring amino acids that have been engineered to form peptides that spontaneously cluster together to create long fibers when exposed to salty, aqueous environments, such as those found in the body. The fibers form a mesh that serves as a physical barrier to blood and other fluids.

Needless to say, this could save many lives on the battlefield, in car crashes, and during surgery.  If it becomes inexpensive enough, it could even be part of home first-aid kits.  Arch Theraputics is the company that is licensing the technology from MIT, and clinical trials are set to begin soon.

Let's hope the next hurdles are quickly cleared. 

Ten Biotechnology Breakthroughs Soon to be Available

Popular Mechanics has assembled one of those captivating lists of new technologies that will improve our lives, this time on healthcare technologies (via Instapundit).� Just a few years ago, these would have appeared to be works of science fiction.� Go to the article to read about the ten technologies shown below.�

Most of these will be available to average consumers within the next 7-10 years, and will extend lifespans while dramatically lowering healthcare costs (mostly through enhanced capabilities of early detection and prevention, as well as shorter recovery times for patients).� This is consistent with my expectation that bionanotechnology is quietly moving along established trendlines despite escaping the notice of most people.� These technologies will also move us closer to Actuarial Escape Velocity, where the rate of lifespan increases exceed that of real time.�

Another angle that these technologies effect is the globalization of healthcare.� We have previously noted the success of 'medical tourism' in US and European patients seeking massive discounts on expensive procedures.� These technologies, given their potential to lower costs and recovery times, are even more suitable for medical offshoring than their predecessors, and thus could further enhance the competitive position of the countries that are quicker to adopt them.� If the US is at the forefront of using the 'bloodstream bot' to unclog arteries, the US thus once again becomes more attractive than getting a traditional procedure done in India or Thailand.� But if the lower cost destinations also adopt these technologies faster than the heavily regulated US, then even more revenue migrates overseas and the US healthcare sector would suffer further deserved blows, and be under even greater pressure to conform to market forces.� As technology once again acts as the great leveler, another spark of hope for reforming the dysfunctional US healthcare sector has emerged.�

These technologies are near enough to availability that you may even consider showing this article to your doctor, or writing a letter to your HMO.� Plant the seed into their minds...

Related :

Actuarial Escape Velocity

How Far Can 'Medical Tourism' Go?

Milli, Micro, Nano, Pico

Batteries Set to Advance, Finally

The Economist has a great article on the history and near-future outlook for battery technology. Batteries have scarcely improved in the last century, and there have been too many false starts for a seasoned observer to get his hopes up too easily.  But this chart of battery capacity by unit weight, in particular, is something I have been seeking for a long time.  It vindicates my belief that lithium-ion technology is improving at a rate far faster than traditional nickel batteries (that have scarcely improved at all in the last half-century).  Note, importantly, that if we join the multiple curves, we see a strong indication of the classic accelerating technology exponential curve.  This time we know it's for real. 

This is exciting on multiple levels, because it opens to door to not just mainsteam electical vehicles in the next decade, but to a variety of wearable electronic devices, 20-30 hour laptop batteries, household robotics, and other applications that have not yet been imagined. 

Future projections are usually over-optimistic, you say?  Let's also not forget Stanford University's nanowire research to increase Lithium-ion battery capacity, which was wide acclaimed as among the most important scientific breakthroughs of 2007. 

Related :

A Future Timeline for Energy

A Future Timeline for Automobiles

Why I Want Oil to Hit $120 per Barrel

Nine Tantalizing Small Companies

In scouring the startup universe for the companies and technologies that can reshape human society and create entirely new industries, one has to play the role of a prospective Venture Capitalist, yet not be constrained by the need for a financial exit 3-6 years hence. 

Therefore, I have assembled a list of nine small companies, each with technologies that have the potential to create trillion-dollar economic disruptions by 2020, disruptions that most people have scarcely begun to imagine today.  Note that the emphasis is on the technologies rather than the companies themselves, as a startup requires much more than a revolutionary technology in order to prosper.  Management skills, team synergy, and execution efficiency are all equally important.  I predict that out of this list of nine companies, perhaps one or two will become titans, while the others will be acquired by larger companies for modest sums, enabling the technology to reach the market through the acquiring company. 

1) NanoSolar : NanoSolar produces low-cost solar cells that are manufactured by a process analogous to 'printing'.  The company's technology was selected by Popular Mechanics as the 'Innovation of the Year' for 2007, and Nanosolar's solar cells are significantly ahead of the Solar Energy Cost Curve.  The flexible, thin nature of Nanosolar's cells may enable them to be quickly incorporated onto the surfaces of many types of commercial buildings.  Nanosolar's first shipments have already occurred, and if we see several large deployments in the near future, this might just be the company that finally makes solar energy a mass-adopted consumer technology.  Nanosolar itself calls this the 'third wave' of solar power technology. 

2) Tesla Motors : I wrote about Tesla Motors in late 2006.  Tesla produces fully electric cars that can consume as little as 1 cent of electricity per mile.  They are about to deliver the first few hundred units of the $98,000 Tesla Roadster to customers, and while the Roadster is not a car that can be marketed to average consumers, Tesla intends to release a 4-door $50,000 sedan named 'WhiteStar' in 2010, and a $30,000 sedan by 2013.  The press coverage devoted to Tesla Motors has been impressive, but until the WhiteStar sedan successfully sells at least 10,000 units, Tesla will not have silenced critics who say the technology cannot be brought down to mass-market costs. 

3) Aptera Motors : When I first wrote about Tesla Motors, it was before I had heard about Aptera Motors.  While Tesla is aiming to produce a $30,000 sedan for 2013, Aptera already has an all-electric car due for late 2008 that is priced at just $27,000, while delivering the equivalent of between 200 and 330 mpg.  The fact that the vehicle has just three wheels may reduce mainstream appeal to some degree, but the futuristic appearance of the car will attract others.  Aptera Motors is a top candidate for winning the Automotive X-Prize in 2010. 

The simultaneous use of Nanosolar's solar panels with the all-electric cars from Tesla and Aptera may enable automotive driving to be powered by solar generated electricity for the average single-family household.  The combination of these two technologies would be the 'killer ap' of getting off of oil and onto fully renewable energy for cars. 

Related : Why I Want Oil to Hit $120/Barrel.

4) 23andMe : This company gets some press due to the fact that co-founder Anne Wojcicki is married to Sergey Brin, even as Google has poured $3.9M into 23andMe.  Aside from this, what 23andMe offers is an individual's personal genome for just $1000.  What a personal genome provides is a profile of which health conditions the customer is more or less susceptible to, and thus enables the customer to provide this information to his physician, and make the preventive lifestyle adjustments well in advance.  Proactive consumers will be able to extend their lifespans by systematically reducing their risks of ailments they are genetically predisposed to.  As the service is a function of computational power, the price of a personal genome will, of course, drop, and might become an integral part of the average person's medical records, as well as an expense that insurance covers. 

5) Desktop Factory : In 2008, Desktop Factory will begin to sell a $5000 device that functions as a 3-D printer, printing solid objects one layer at a time.  A user can scan almost any object (including a hand, foot, or head) and reproduce a miniature model of it (up to 5 X 5 X 5 inches).  The material used by the 3-D printer costs about $1 per cubic inch. 

The $5000 printer is a successor to similar $100,000 devices used in mechanical engineering and manufacturing firms.  Due to the Impact of Computing, consumer-targeted devices costing under $1000 will be available no later than 2014.  I envision an ecosystem where people invent their own objects (statuettes, toys, tools, etc.) and share the scanned templates of these objects on social networking sites like MySpace and Facebook.  People can thus 'share' actual objects over the Internet, through printing a downloaded template.  The cost of the printing material will drop over time as well.  A lot of fun is to be had, and expect an impressive array of brilliant ideas to come from people below the age of 16. 

6) Zazzle : Welcome to the age of the instapreneur.  Zazzle enables anyone to design their own consumer commodities like T-shirts, mugs, calendars, bumper stickers, etc. on demand.  If you have an idea, you can produce it on Zazzle with no start-up costs, and no inventory risks.  You profit even from the very first unit you sell, with no worries about breakeven thresholds.  You can produce an infinite number of products, limited only by your imagination.  At this point, those of you reading this are probably in the midst of an avalanche of ideas of products you would like to produce. 

While the bulk of Zazzle users today are would merely be vanity users who manage to sell under ten units of their creations, this new paradigm of low-cost customization will inevitably creep up to major industrial supply chains.  Even more interesting, think about #5 on this list, Desktop Factory, combining with Zazzle's application, into an amazing transformation of the very economics of manufacturing and mass-production. 

7) A123 Systems : Read here about how battery technology is finally set to advance after decades of stagnation.  A123 Systems is at the forefront of these advances, and has already received over $148 Million in private funding, as well as an article from the prestigious MIT Technology Review.  A123 is a supplier for GM's upcoming Volt, and has already has begun to sell a module to convert a Toyota Prius into a plug-in hybrid.  For choices beyond those offered by the #2 and #3 companies on this list, A123 Systems is poised to enable the creation of many new electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles, greatly increasing the the choices available to consumers seeking the equivalent of more than 50 mpg.  A123 may just become the Intel of batteries.  Combine A123's batteries with Nanosolar's cells, and the possibilities become even more interesting. 

8) Luxim : Brightness of light is measured in Lumens, not Watts, which is a measure of power consumption.  Consumers are learning that CFL and LED bulbs offer the same Lumens with just a fifth or a tenth of the Watts consumed by a traditional incandescent bulb, and billions of tons of coal are already being saved by the adoption of CFLs and LEDs.  Luxim, however, aims to take this even further.  Luxim makes tiny bulbs that deliver 8 times as many Lumens per Watt as incandescent bulbs.  The bulbs are too expensive for home use, but are already going into projection TVs.  With $61 Million in funding to date, Luxim's main hurdle will be to reduce the cost of their products enough to penetrate the vast home and office lighting market, which consumes tens of billions of bulbs each year.   

9) Ugobe : Ugobe sells a robotic dinosaur toy known as the Pleo.  A mere toy, especially a $350 toy, would not normally be on a list of technologies that promise to crease the fabric of human society.  However, a closer look at the Pleo reveals many impressive increments in the march to make inexpensive robots more lifelike.  The skin of the Pleo covers the joints, the Pleo has more advanced 'learning' abilities than $2500 robots from a few years ago, and the Pleo even cries when tortured, to the extent that it is difficult to watch this. 

The reason Ugobe is on this list is that I am curious to see what is the next product on their roadmap, so that I can gauge how quickly the technology is advancing.  The next logical step would be an artificial mammal of some sort, with greater intelligence and realistic fur.  The successful creation of this generation of robot would provide the datapoints to enable us to project the approximate arrival of future humanoid robots, for better or for worse.  Another company may leapfrog Ugobe in the meantime, but they are currently at the forefront of the race to create low-priced robotic toys. 

This concludes the list of nine companies that each could greatly alter our lives within the next several years.  Of these nine, at least three, Nanosolar, Tesla Motors, and 23andMe, have Google or Google's founders as investors.  The next 24 months have important milestones for each of these companies to cross (by which time I might have a new list of new companies).  For those that clear their respective near-term bars, there might just be a chance of attaining the dizzy heights that Google, Microsoft, or Intel has. 

Related :

The Impact of Computing

A Future Timeline for Automobiles

A Future Timeline for Energy

The Imminent Revolution in Lighting

Batteries Set to Advance, Finally

(crossposted on TechSector)

2007 Technology Breakthrough Roundup

One year ago, I posted a roundup of 2006 technology breakthroughs from MIT Technology Review.  Of the breakthroughs listed at that time, displays, plug-in hybrids, and solar cells showed impressive progress over the subsequent 12 months. 

Now, we arrive at the 2007 list, which has expanded from four categories last year to five this time. 

The Year in Software

The Year in Hardware : Gadgetmania

The Year in Energy : Solar power inches closer.

The Year in Biotechnology : Stem cell research methods that no longer need embryos.

The Year in Nanotechnology : Stanford University research into nanowires that dramatically increase battery capacity is the most promising breakthrough of 2007, in any discipline.  Think 30-hour laptop batteries. 

Most of the innovations in the articles above are in the laboratory phase, which means that about half will never progress enough to make it to market, and those that do will take 5 to 15 years to directly affect the lives of average people (remember that the laboratory-to-market transition period itself continues to shorten in most fields).  But each one of these breakthroughs has world-changing potential, and that there are so many fields advancing simultaneously guarantees a massive new wave of improvement to human lives. 

This scorching pace of innovation is entirely predictable, however.  To internalize the true rate of technological progress, one merely needs to appreciate :

The Milli, Micro, Nano, Pico curves

The Impact of Computing

The Accelerating Rate of Change

We are fortunate to live in an age when a single calendar year will invariably yield multiple technological breakthroughs, the details of which are easily accessible to laypeople.  In the 18th century, entire decades would pass without any observable technological improvements, and people knew that their children would experience a lifestyle identical to their own.  Today, we know with certainty that our lives in 2008 will have slight but distinct and numerous improvements in technological usage over 2007, just as 2007 was an improvement over 2006. 

Into the Future we continue, where 2008 awaits..

(cross-posted at TechSector).

A Future Timeline for Automobiles

Many streams of accelerating technological change, from energy to The Impact of Computing, will find themselves intersecting in one of the largest consumer product industries of all.  Over 70 million automobiles were produced worldwide in 2006, with rapid market penetration underway in India and China.  Indisputably, cars greatly affect the lives of consumers, the economies of nations, and the market forces of technological change. 

I thus present a speculative timeline of technological and economic events that will happen for automobiles.  This has numerous points of intersection with the Future Timeline for Energy. 

2007 : The Tesla Roadster emerges to not only bring Silicon Valley change agents together to sow the seeds of disruption in the automotive industry, but also to immediately transform the image of electrical vehicles from 'punishment cars' to status symbols of dramatic sex appeal.  Even at the price of $92,000, demand outstrips supply by an impressive margin. 

2009 : The Automotive X-Prize of $25 Million (or more) is successfully claimed by a car designed to meet the 100 mpg/mass-producable goal set by the X Prize Foundation.  Numerous companies spring forth out of prototypes tested in the contest. 

2010 : With gasoline at $4/gallon, established automobile companies simultaneously release plug-in hybrid vehicles.  Hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and fully electrical cars represent 5% of total new automobiles sold in the US, even if tax incentives have been a large stimulus.  The habit of plugging in a car overnight to charge it starts to become routine for homeowners with such cars, but apartment dwellers are at a disadvantage in this regard, not having an outlet near their parking spot. 

2011 : Two or more iPod ports, 10-inch flat-screen displays for back seat passengers, parking space detection technology, and embedded Wi-Fi adapters that wirelessly can transfer files into the vehicle's hard drive from up to 500 feet away are standard features for many new cars in the $40,000+ price tier. 

2012 : Over 100 million new automobiles are produced in 2012, up from 70 million in 2006.  All major auto manufacturers are racing to incorporate new nanomaterials that are lighter than aluminium yet stronger and more malleable than steel.  The average weight of cars has dropped by about 5% from what it was for the equivalent style in 2007. 

2013 : Tesla Motors releases a fully electric 4-door sedan that is available for under $40,000, which is only 33% more than the $30,000 that the typical fully-loaded gasoline-only V6 Accord or Camry sells for in 2013. 

2014 : Self-driving cars are now available in the luxury tier (priced $100,000 or higher).  A user simply enters in the destination, and the car charts out a path (similar to Google Maps) and proceeds on it, in compliance with traffic laws.  However, a software malfunction results in a major traffic pile-up that garners national media attention for a week.  Subsequently, self-driving technologies are shunned despite their superior statistical performance relative to human drivers. 

2015 : As predicted in early 2006 on The Futurist, a 4-door sedan with a 240 hp engine, yet costing only 5 cents/mile to operate (the equivalent of 60 mpg of gasoline), is widely available for $35,000 (which is within the middle-class price band by 2015 under moderate assumptions for economic growth).  This is the result of combined advances in energy, lighter nanomaterials, and computerized systems. 

2016 : An odd change has occurred in the economics of car depreciation.  Between 1980 and 2007, annual car depreciation rates decreased due to higher quality materials and better engine design, reaching as little as 12-16% a year for the first 5 years of ownership.  Technology pushed back the forces of depreciation. 

However, by 2016, 40% of a car's initial purchase price is comprised of electronics (up from under 20% in 2007 and just 5% in 1985), which depreciate at a rate of 25-40% a year.  The entire value of the car is pulled along by the 40% of it that undergoes rapid price declines, and thus total car depreciation is now occuring at a faster rate of up to 20% a year for the first 5 years.  This is a natural progression of The Impact of Computing, and wealthier consumers are increasingly buying new cars as 'upgrades' to replace models with obsolete technologies after 5-7 years, much as they would upgrade a game console, rather than waiting until mechanical failure occurs in their current car.  Consumers also conduct their own upgrades of certain easily-replaced components, much as they would upgrade the memory or hard drive of a PC. Technology has thus accelerated the forces of depreciation. 

2018 : Among new cars sold, gasoline-only vehicles are now a minority.  Millions of electricity-only vehicles are charged through solar panels on a daily basis, relieving those consumers of a fuel expenditure that was as high as $2000/year in 2007.  Even when sunlight is obscured and the grid is used, some electrical vehicles cost as little as 1 cent/mile to operate.

2020 : New safety technologies that began to appear in mainstream cars around 2012, such as night vision, lane departure correction, and collision-avoiding cruise control, have replaced the existing fleet of older cars over the decade, and now US annual traffic fatalities have dropped to 25,000 in 2020 from 43,000 in 2005.  Given the larger US population in 2020 (about 350 Million), this is a reduction in traffic deaths by half on a per-capita basis. 

2024 : Self-driving cars have overcome the stigma of a decade prior, and are now widely used.  But they still have not fully displaced manual driving, due to user preferences in this regard.  Certain highways permit only self-driven cars, with common speed limits of 100 mph or more. 

2025-30 : Electricity (indeed, clean electricity) now fuels nearly all passenger car miles driven in the US.  There is no longer any significant fuel consumption cost associated with driving a car, although battery maintenance is a new aspect of car ownership.  Many car bodies now include solar energy absorbant materials that charge a parked car during periods of sunlight.  Leaving such cars out in the sun has supplanted the practice of parking in the shade or in covered parking.

Pervasive use of advanced nanomaterials has ensured that the average car weighs only 60% as much as a 2007 counterpart, but yet is over twice as resistant to dents. 

______________________________________________________________

I believe that this timeline represents the the combination of median forecasts across all technological and economic trends that influence cars, and will be perceived as too optimistic or too pessimistic by an equal number of readers.  Let's see how closely reality matches this timeline. 

2006 Technology Breakthrough Roundup

The MIT Technology Review has compiled a convenient list of the most significant technological advances of 2006.

The Year in Information Technology

The Year in Energy : Plug-in cars, batteries, solar energy.

The Year in Biotechnology : A cure for blindness, and more.

The Year in Nanotechnology : Displays, sensors, and nanotube computers.

Most of the innovations in the articles above are in the laboratory phase, which means that about half will never progress enough to make it to market, and those that do will take 5 to 15 years to directly affect the lives of average people (remember that the laboratory-to-market transition period itself continues to shorten in most fields).  But each one of these breakthroughs has world-changing potential, and that there are so many fields advancing simultaneously guarantees a massive new wave of improvement to human lives. 

This scorching pace of innovation is entirely predictable, however.  To internalize the true rate of technological progress, one merely needs to appreciate :

The Milli, Micro, Nano, Pico curves

The Impact of Computing

The Accelerating Rate of Change

We are fortunate to live in an age when a single calendar year will invariably yield multiple technological breakthroughs, the details of which are easily accessible to laypeople.  In the 18th century, entire decades would pass without any observable technological improvements, and people knew that their children would experience a lifestyle identical to their own.  Today, we know with certainty that our lives in 2007 will have slight but distinct and numerous improvements in technological usage over 2006. 

Into the Future we continue, where 2007 awaits..

New Nanosolution Can Block Bleeding and Reduce Troop Deaths

There was a time when America could wage wars and sustain 50,000 or more casualties without severe domestic opposition.  Not any more, as even 2000 hostile deaths in Iraq has caused many Americans to be demoralized from the seemingly immense body count.  Our technological and economic progress has caused our society to rightly place a premium on human life, but in order to preserve our society, we still need to wage brutal wars.  Thus, market forces demand innovations that reduce US troop deaths even further. 

On July 28, I had an article about a new ultrasound tourniquet that could quickly inhibit bleeding even in the midst of a battle.  Another innovation takes an entirely different approach to address the same problem.  Scientists at MIT have developed a liquid that quickly self-assembles into a viscous gel that seals up severed blood vessels, when it comes in contact with a wound.  Even better, the gel is biodegradeable and does not have to be removed from the wound - it simply dissolves into amino acids.  (Article : MIT Technology Review).

Active use by the military could be 8-10 years away.  After that, it could be used by ambulances at traffic scenes or even during surgery. 

But what is important is not whether this innovation, or the previously described ultrasound tourniquet, or some third technology wins out.  What is important is that multiple unrelated technologies are rapidly closing in on a market need, forcing each of them to continually improve their efficacy and reduce their costs.  This virtually ensures that the market need will be met in the near future. 

Update (5/14/08) : This is moving along more quickly than anticipated, and clinical trials are expected to start soon. 

Nanotechnology to Create Plentiful Clean Water by 2015

An article from the MIT Technology Review describes a development by researchers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory that could bring clean drinking water to 2 billion people who currently don't have access to this necessity. 

By using carbon nanotubes, membranes were created with pores so fine that only the width of seven water molecules could pass through.  This removes many impurities, including salt molecules.  These filters may reduce the cost of desalinification by up to 75%, and could come to market in the next decade.  The real secret is the price of carbon nanotubes, which is expected to decline by half every 18 months.  In 10 years, the price of nanotubes will be merely 1/100th of what it is today.  This filter could become inexpensive enough for even small villages to operate their own desalinification facilities.  This, in turn, could greatly reduce poverty, increase life expectancy, and foster economic growth. 

Water is a critical component of economic growth on every level, even more so than oil.  Numerous wars have been fought over water in the Middle East and North Africa, and this innovation could be yet another contributor towards the reduction of warfare through economic prosperity. 

Needless to say, a massive reduction in the cost of creating highly purified water also benefits the top of the economic pyramid.  Industries that use large amounts of purified water and could benefit from cost reductions are semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, healthcare, food processing, etc.

Related : The Nanotech Report 2006 - Key Findings

The Nanotech Report 2006 - Key Findings

The 2006 edition of the Nanotech Report from Lux Research was published recently.  This is something I make a point to read every year, even if only a brief summary is available for free. 

Some of the key findings that are noteworthy :

1) Nanotechnology R&D reached $9.6 billion in 2005, up 10% from 2004.  This is unremarkable when one considers that the world economy grew 7-8% in nominal terms in 2005, but upon closer examination of the subsets of R&D, corporate R&D and venture capital grew 18% in 2005 to hit $5 billion.  This means that many technologies are finally graduating from basic research laboratories and are being turned into products, and that investment in nanotechnology is now possible.  This also confirms my estimation that the inflection point of commercial nanotechnology was in 2005. 

2) Nanotechnology was incorporated in $30 billion of manufactured goods in 2005 (mostly escaping notice).  This is projected to reach $2.6 trillion of manufactured goods by 2014, or a 64% annual growth rate.  Products like inexpensive solar roof shingles, lighter yet stronger cars yielding 60 mpg, stain and crease resistant clothes, and thin high-definition displays will be common. 

But a deeper concept worth internalizing is how an extension of the Impact of Computing will manifest itself.  If the quality of nanotechnology per dollar increases at the same 58% annual rate as Moore's Law (a modest assumption), combining this qualitative improvement rate with a dollar growth of 64% a year yields an effective Impact of Nanotechnology of (1.58)*(1.64) = 160% per year.  As the base gets larger, this will become very visible.

3) Nanotech-enabled products on the market today command a price premium of 11% over traditional equivalents, even if the nanotechnology is not directly noticed. 

The next great technology boom is upon us, and it is beginning now. 

Milli, Micro, Nano, Pico

What would be the best way to measure, and predict, technological progress?  One good observation has been The Impact of Computing, but why has computing occurred now, rather than a few decades earlier or later?  Why is nanotechnology being talked about now, rather than much earlier or later?

Engineering has two dimensions of progress - the ability to engineer and manufacture designs at exponentially smaller scales, and the ability to engineer projects of exponentially larger complexity.  In other words, progress occurs as we design in increasingly intricate detail, while simultaneously scaling this intricacy to larger sizes, and can mass produce these designs. 

For thousands of years, the grandest projects involved huge bricks of stone (the Pyramids, medieval castles).  The most intricate carvings by hand were on the scale of millimeters, but scaled only to the size of hand-carried artifacts.  Eventually, devices such as wristwatches were invented, that had moving parts on a millimeter scale.

At the same time, engineering on a molecular level first started with the creation of simple compounds like Hydrochloric Acid, and over time graduated to complex chemicals, organic molecules, and advanced compounds used in industry and pharmaceuticals.  We are currently able to engineer molecules that have tens of thousands of atoms within them, and this capability continues to get more advanced. 

The chart below is a rough plot of the exponentially shrinking detail of designs which we can mass-produce (the pink line), and the increasingly larger atom-by-atom constructs that we can create (the green line).  Integrated circuits became possible as the pink line got low enough in the 1970s and 80s, and life-saving new pharmaceuticals have emerged as the green line got to where it was in the 1990s and today.  The two converge right about now, which is not some magical inflection point, but rather the true context in which to view the birth of nanotechnology. 

As we move through the next decade, molecular engineering will be capable of producing compounds tens of times more complex than today, creating amazing new drugs, materials, and biotechnologies.  Increasingly finer design and manufacturing capabilities will allow computer chips to accomodate 10 billion transistors in less than one square inch, and for billions of these to be produced.  Nanotechnology will be the domain of all this and more, and while the beginnings may appear too small to notice to the untrained observer, the dual engineering trends of the past century and earlier converge to the conception of this era now.

Further into the future, molecule-sized intelligent robots will be able to gather and assemble into solid objects almost instantly, and move inside our body to monitor our health and fight pathogens without our noticing.  Such nanobots will change our perception of physical form as we know it.  Even later, picotechnology, or engineering on the scale of trillionths of a meter - that of subatomic particles - will be the frontier of mainstream consumer technology, in ways we cannot begin to imagine today.  This may coincide with a Technological Singularity around the middle of the 21st century. 

For now, though, we can sit back and watch the faint trickle of nanotechnology headlines, products, and wealth thicken and grow into a stream, then a river, and finally a massive ocean that deeply submerges our world in its influence.